저자: DanIves · 외국인
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NVIDIA 실적 기대감 속 AI 메모리 슈퍼사이클이 진행 중이며 수요가 공급을 크게 초과(15:1)해 메모리 가격과 비용이 계속 오를 것이라는 주장. AI 혁명은 3회차(third inning)이며 균형점은 2028년 중후반으로 전망. 엔비디아 주가 수익률은 둔화되고 있으나 수요는 가속 중이고 실적 우려(회계 착시, 순환 금융)는 과도하다고 반박. 메모리·애플·마이크론 등 기술주 전반에 긍정적 관점을 제시. 한국 메모리 업황(코스피 관련)도 언급.
다듬은 글
Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives writing, we expect robust results from NVIDIA, which will be key to the tech trade going higher into year end. Dan joins us now for more. Dan, good morning. Great to be here. What's getting more expensive? Look. Memory. I mean, the reality is is that we're seeing a memory super cycle take place, and I think that's the word all around Korea.
And that's why NVIDIA, they're gonna need to pass some of this to their customers. But but that's not that's not slowing down because the reality today, demand supply for chips is upwards of 15 to one. And I think that's the that's what not just NVIDIA, but ultimately their end users. Who needs to eat the higher costs right now?
Who's eating it? Now through the supply chain, you'll see some of that eaten, but then ultimately, it's the end users, the customers, it's enterprises, it's tokenization. As that all plays out, then the question will be, okay. When you hit some sort of equilibrium I mean, we don't think you hit core equilibrium probably till middle to late two thousand twenty eight.
I think that right now is a quagmire, whether it's NVIDIA, whether it's the memory players, Micron, everyone else, because the hyperscalers, you know, just like as Lisa talked about, as they'll continue to raise capital and CapEx will continue to increase, The AI revolution is still in the third inning, and I think you'll hear that more from NVIDIA later this week.
Then it comes down to, like, memory and Apple, and obviously seeing that front and center. Those costs are gonna continue to go up. They're gonna look for other costs to go down, though. And I was looking, for example, at the story over the weekend of NVIDIA potentially telling some of its customers like Microsoft and Alphabet, and Oracle that their costs are gonna go up about 15% tied to data centers because of the memory chip and how much the price is going up.
And you start wondering, is this part of the reason why they're cutting back on frontier models? Is this part of the reason why they're looking for efficiencies from, say, open sourced AI models coming from China? Yeah. And that's why when when you look at Apple and they looked at chips potentially from China, because they're looking across the board and say, okay.
Where do we cut cost? Because on one side of the ledger, costs are going up. But it speaks to our view that you you until you really hit scale, costs are gonna continue to go higher. I think with the hyperscalers and with the chip players from NVIDIA, what everyone's dealing with is you cannot take the foot off the gas right now because of the demand cycle.
And to your point, when it comes to, like, the debt raises despite we're seeing, that's gonna accelerate. I mean, you talked about it going to 220. You go to next year, it's probably double from that, you know, in terms of as it's gonna continue to increase. Given the CapEx that's needed, in terms of what I'll view it, it's building it's building Vegas Strip 1955 type moment.
I was looking at NVIDIA's earnings and just the the returns that you've seen in their shares. So far this year, their shares are up 15%. Last year, they were up 38%. The year before, they were up more than a 100%. The year before, up more than 200%. It's been a rapid deceleration in the equity returns as multiples have gone higher and higher.
At what point have they just reached a pinnacle of what multiples can look like? And even if they deliver amazing results, they're not gonna get that kind of pop in the stock. I think that's the debate. But then to some extent, they've almost funded the AI party. And if you think about the memory play look.
Think about Korea. Cosby is not where it is without NVIDIA. You know, there is only one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution that is NVIDIA. And I think the point here is that as you see with numbers as it plays out, there is no one that has a better perch than them. And that's why I think you'll hear from Jensen because the question is is it at as enterprise accelerate, and we think it could accelerate in probably 25% even over the last few months, as that runs through the system, it's investors ultimately recognizing that because I still it's my view investors are still underestimating the scale and scope of the AI revolution.
Now it goes back to, like, the bond market, and you're gonna need to take out more debt. And then whereas there are patients to sort of a tug of war that goes on. But from a demand perspective, it's accelerating, not decelerating. Earnings look great. Are they as good as they look? Lisa's asked this question before.
A Bloomberg subscriber wrote in just moments ago and asked the following question whether this isn't just about accounting tricks. The question directly is someone's CapEx, which gets depreciated over many years, falls straight into someone else's top line recognized instantly. No one predicted this earnings boost because no one thought this through.
Not one single South Side analyst. What's your response to that? I response would be look at Palantir earnings as a good example of just purely just forget CapEx. Enterprises signing on the deadline to ultimately accelerate their AI initiatives. If you look at Microsoft's quarter, that was a perfect example of what's happening to that.
Just forget CapEx for a sec. What are their installed base, their enterprises saying? What they're basically saying is bright green light to go down the AI path. So when you go down to the CapEx and the circular financing and, you know, they're investing in there and and everyone needs everyone else to to ultimately be positive in terms of OpenAI and Anthropic, I think it gets away from just the core demand.
And, also, for every dollar of CapEx, there's a $56 monthly that the earnings aren't there. They're not that great. I'm just implying that they're not as good as people might be saying they are. Is that fair? I I look. I would say six, nine months from now, they have to continue to execute and prove themselves out.
And if they don't, then the stocks reflect that. But I think right now, that's why every it look. This is all a Jenga puzzle. From Palantir to NVIDIA to Microsoft to OpenAI and Thropic, you gotta put it together to understand what's ultimately happening. What I would just say is from an Asia perspective and what you've seen with demand, demand's accelerating.
That's why price are going higher, and that's something that's bullish for the overall tech trade. Dan.
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