저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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Yardeni는 2022년 10월 약세장 당시 경기침체가 오지 않을 것이라며 경제 회복력에 베팅했고, 지금도 실적 모멘텀(AI/챗GPT 붐 이후)을 근거로 주식시장을 낙관한다. 베이비붐 세대의 자산(약 100조달러 이상) 때문에 주식시장이 미국 노후 시스템이 되었다고 주장하며, 금리는 0%대 금리가 비정상이었고 10년물 4~5%는 건강한 수준이라 본다. 연준이 한두 번 더 금리를 올릴 수 있다고 보지만 고금리 장기화 관점에는 동의하지 않는다. S&P500은 연말 10,000 도달을 전망한다.
다듬은 글
Joining us now definitive on Wall Street, it's C.J. Lawrence. Just a few years ago, he helped invent the synthesis of economics into stock market analysis. Editor Danny joins us. You're Danny Research. And we got a one hour conversation. I'm going to cram in here. I got to first go to the therapy that's needed as you go to retirement, which is you've got Max, Chloe, Cooper and Bailey at the yard.
Danny house. It's a four dog night. Yeah, it certainly is. It's their King Charles Cavaliers and the couch potato dogs. I love them. They're always on the couch and they're sleeping in one of the kennel feeds. I mean the vet bill must be just like, seriously? Oh. But you know, you have to get health insurance for your dogs.
I mean, it's it's that's that's your Bloomberg running advice. And that's what he writes. Thank you very much. Been there. Danny. Here, let me go to the chart right now. Pull up, uh, an important chart here. Coming out of Covid in an October of 22, a guy named Income Porter in the chart area. And you're Danny and the economics and finance, said courage.
Buy here. What did you see in October 22nd that gives you continued confidence in the market? Well, October 22nd was a very strange bear market. Usually bear markets are associated with recessions. There was no recession. As a matter of fact, at the time, I kept saying that we are experiencing the most widely anticipated recession of all times.
That just isn't going to happen. It was the Godot recession, if you will. Uh, I just kept betting on the resilience of the economy. And so I kind of viewed the bear market as the aberration rather than the economy, which remained very strong. The earnings were holding up reasonably well. So I kind of viewed that as a panic attack.
Now, look, there were good reasons for concerns. The fed was raising interest rates from 0 to 5.5% on the fed funds rate. The bond yield was going up. Oil prices got a big spike. And yet the resilience of the economy came through remarkably well. We were betting on that and that. We're still betting on the resilience of the economy.
Yeah. So I want to take it to what we are seeing right now because he said bond yields were going up. Oil prices are going up. That's exactly what's happening now. The stock market has kind of slowed down a little bit. So the parallels between then and now one could say is noteworthy. Well there's definitely parallels.
But one of the big differences is earnings. We've got what I call. You know everybody talks about FOMO fear of missing out. I'm talking about female. And that is fabulous earnings momentum that we didn't have that back in 20 2022. And it was really at the end of 2020, 23rd November that we suddenly had ChatGPT and a revolution just starting.
And the arc of this, I just finished Justin Baer's wonderful book on net Johnson and, you know, the industry from Marissa, 1974 forward. My basic take is we've rationalized an ownership of bonds, which has been really difficult since 22, since 21 is well is the basic psychology of retirement. Now afraid of stocks?
I don't think so. I think actually quite the opposite. I think, uh, a lot of my friends are retiring. We're the baby boomers. I'm still working for a living because I don't play golf. So I don't know what I would do with myself. And oh, by the way, I get seasick on cruises. My friends are all going on cruises.
They used to go one every three years. Now they go three a year and I get text messages for them saying, I don't know what you're doing, but keep this market going up because we're spending money like crazy and our net worth being Eric Balchunas. Last week's girl, that was brilliant. And they're saying the stock market has become the American retirement system.
It absolutely has. Do you know that the baby boomers have a $90 trillion trillion that billions, trillion dollars of net worth. And by the way, there's still some, uh, people left from the so-called silent generation older than the baby boomers. They have $20 trillion. So we're talking over $100 trillion of retirement net worth assets for the largest generation ever.
Uh, that is retiring. Are they going to use that or are they going to actualize that, or are they going to just pass it on to their you know, the kids didn't listen and they didn't they didn't like we didn't like their friends and they were noisy. So why leave them anything. Just spend like crazy. But look, a lot of people have been talking about the economy that, you know, the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer.
I think that's misses what's really going on. And that's the the demography. We've got a very, very well off baby boom generation and they're helping their younger children and grandchildren. The affordability crisis is really old versus young retiring people. They don't really care if the fed tightens.
Retiring people really don't care much about the labor market because they're retired. All they really care about really is the stock market. How should our audience of retirement, of personal finance, how should they synthesize the fed Madness. You and I remember when Arthur Burns had smoke coming out of the pipe, and we interpreted that.
Now we've got this parlor game. Yeah. How does that your Danny filter that if it's for long term investment? Well, I think you focus on the economy if you believe in the resilience of the economy. If you believe that the labor market is in balance, we've got a 4.3% unemployment rate, which is awfully good.
Uh, we have an inflation problem. The fed is going to have to probably raise interest rates at least once, maybe a second time, maybe even a third time, according to where the two year Treasury note yield is right now. I think if you kind of grin and bear it and, uh, try to, uh, enjoy your retirement life, uh, because I think the market will continue to defy the bears because the economy will continue to defy the pessimists.
You were saying that the boomers don't care about the fed raising rates. They're going to enjoy their retirement. I'm not a boomer. I'm a Gen Xers. So I got to work for longer. And I'm wondering whether a higher for longer interest rates means that I have to rethink, reassess, uh, pivot my investment strategy.
Well, uh, the short answer is yes, but I I'm not a big fan of the high end for a longer idea about interest rates. I think interest rates are back to normal. In other words, 4 to 5% ten year Treasury bond yield is a sign of a very healthy economy. Uh, it's an it's a yield that made sense before the great financial crisis.
The aberration. Yeah. Higher for longer implies we're going to be going back to the right. I see what you're supposed to. Zero interest rates. This is it. This is this is that was the abnormal. Yeah. And now six, six, 6.5%, 7% mortgage rates seem awfully high to a lot of people compared to what compared to where they were when the economy wasn't doing so well.
And you're I know that you're seeing the Odyssey. I guess it's tonight you're going to see Friday. Uh, today they don't know that you're writing a newsletter in Sparta a few years ago. We all know that after the 1920s, Roaring 20s, it wasn't pretty. What happens after the yard, Denny? Roaring 20s of this 21st century.
Yeah, I'm trying to sort that out now. Uh, I think that if the roaring 2020s works, uh, and, uh, then in other words, that the economy doesn't have a recession, the stock market continues to go up. I've got 10,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of the decade. If that works, there's no particular reason why it couldn't be the roaring 2030s.
As a matter of fact, that that talking about a decade is roaring. That's what the stock market usually does during decades. It's only been a few decades where the market was just kind of flat, where it was a nothing kind of environment. And certainly that was, uh, the 1930s were terrible. Uh, and uh, the 1970s were no picnic.
Uh, and then the period around the great financial crisis was. So we've had, we've had, uh, a decades where you made nothing, but, uh, there have been lots of decades where the market's done very well, not just the 1920s.
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