저자: StevenRyan · 외국인
요약 보기
사회자(추정 Steven Ryan)가 10년 이상 장기투자 관점을 강조하며 ARK 펀드의 10년 연환산 수익률이 S&P500(14.8%)을 상회한다고 설명. 캐시 우드 인터뷰를 인용해 테슬라 2029년 목표가 $2,600(옵티머스 미포함), 로보택시 전국 확장 전망을 소개. SpaceX-xAI 합병 및 향후 테슬라 합병 가능성을 장기(수년~10년 내)로 전망.
다듬은 글
Here's Cathie Wood. Now, perhaps I have a distorted view. Perhaps above average length is so natural and normal to me that I've lost all perspective and what I see as normal others would see as unreasonably long. So, what exactly does length have to do with wood? Glad you asked. Before we get to Wood's latest thoughts on Tesla, I want to provide some perspective on length.
Let's define length. For our purposes, the second definition, the amount of time occupied by something. Example given here, delivery must be within a reasonable length of time. So, let's talk about reasonable length. It is my contention that a reasonable length, a minimum acceptable length for an investment is 10 years, a decade.
And this is not a new thought of mine. Some of the earliest videos I posted on this channel referred to Tesla over a 10-plus year time frame. In 2021, when I first published my Tesla valuation model, it extended over a 10-year time frame. There is a reason for this. Anything short of 10 years Anything short of a decade, when it comes to investments, there can be so much volatility, changes in the economy, downturns, scamdemics, that can be really hard to judge overall performance and equally as difficult to expect a reasonable return over an extremely short time frame.
And yes, anything short of a decade is extremely short. So, we are now looking, on screen, thanks to Grok, at the 10-year annualized return on ARK's four key funds, each launched in 2014. We're not going all the way back conceptions, just the most recent 10 years. ARK doesn't have any other funds that have been around for more than 10 years, so we'll have to withhold our judgment until they hit their 10-year birthday.
Compared to the S&P 500's 10-year return over that same time frame, which is 14.8%. The ARK Innovation ETF, ARKK, has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last decade, 16.98%. ARK's Autonomous Technology and Robotics ETF has crushed the S&P 500 over that 10-year timeframe. 23.2% ARKK Next Generation Internet ETF absolutely annihilated the S&P 500 over the last 10 years at 24.14% ARKK Genomics Revolution ETF has meaningfully underperformed the S&P 500 over that 10-year timeframe at 6.9 nice percent.
And just for good measure, Tesla stock over that same timeframe has destroyed everything else by miles here, 10-year annualized return of 41.3%. The average 10-year annualized return across the ARKK ETFs, 17.81% meaningfully above the S&P 500. So, to open this video, I just wanted to be fair to Cathie Wood and ARKK Invest.
I think a lot of insecure investors out there can't see beyond their micro timeframe. Cathie Wood and ARKK Invest seem to have accumulated a lot of haters in the last couple of years, but it's hard to argue with the facts. The ARKK funds have beaten the odds, beaten the S&P over decade-plus time horizon, which is quite impressive.
And if we go back even further, an even longer timeframe since the inception of each of the ARKK funds, all of them launched in late 2014, there's no meaningful change to the outcome. Three of the four ARKK funds outperform the S&P, ARKK K only just, ARKK Q and W though absolutely whooping the S&P 500 and Tesla of course destroying everything else once again.
I wonder how many of Cathie Wood's haters have outperformed the S&P 500 over the last decade. Let's see what she's got to say. So, what are your expectations in terms of longer-term return potential from Tesla? Well, we are in print on Tesla. It's it's in the low $400 range per share right now, and we are in print, our 2029 forecast is 2600.
That forecast has nothing for Optimus, so humanoid robots. And we're beginning to understand that while we were too aggressive on autonomous mobility, so robot taxis, um we may be too conservative on the humanoid robot opportunity. So, stay tuned for that update. The slow, slow, and then all at once is very typical of technologies that really are hard to crack.
I think Elon Musk genuinely thought that by the late teens, uh 2018, 19, he would be in there with robot taxis. We had just experienced a massive breakthrough in AI transformer architecture in 2017. It has taken time for Tesla, Elon, and team to perfect the autonomous opportunity with the latest AI breakthroughs.
Now we're there. Now we're there. And so we don't think technology is the problem anymore. We are seeing autonomous vehicles on the road. I can drive around in St. Petersburg with my current Tesla full self-driving and not touch the wheel or the accelerator or the brake and I can park. So the technology is here.
Regulations have to catch up. In the United States, we have 50 regulators, well more than that in transportation, but 50 state regulators. We think that this government is going to elevate the regulatory regime to the federal status. And that is because autonomous vehicles, of course, cross from state to state.
So it should be national transportation regulation. If we do get that, we believe that Tesla will be in more than certainly more than 25% but probably up to 50% of all the cities in the United States, the major cities and beyond because of course Tesla's data is worldwide. The roughly 7 to 8 million robots that we all drive have been collecting data for years.
I got got my first Tesla Model 3 in 2018. Cathy Wood raised a number of important points here and again we go back to length. She's describing her first Tesla vehicle, that Model 3 purchased back in 2018. Well, spoiler alert, Tesla's been collecting data in the pursuit of solving full autonomy now for a decade, a literal decade.
Cathy talked about the breakthrough in transformers back in 2017. It's taken longer than expected to solve autonomy but as she points out, it happens slowly, slowly and then all at once. This is typical of technologies that are hard to crack. Once again, I remind you of the 10 plus year time frame. When you look at their investments, massive disruption, huge shifts, changes, technological innovation.
This is one of the reasons that you need a very long perspective. As an investor, it's much easier to answer the question, will this disruption happen sometime in the next decade than it is, will this disruption happen sometime in the next day, week, month, quarter or few years. In 2021 when I published my Tesla valuation model exclusively on Patreon, my best guess for Tesla's robotaxi launch was late 2024.
I was off by a little over 6 months but I could have been off by years. Cathy admits that Arc Invest were way too aggressive with their timing on robotaxi while then also mentioning that they believe that the whole world seems to be far too conservative on humanoid robots. Oh, and by the way, their $2600 per share fair valuation for Tesla in 2029 doesn't include anything for Optimus.
Although, she's obviously hinting at the next valuation which will be 2030 for Tesla will include Optimus. And I can tell you right now, people are going to lose their [ __ ] minds if Arc and I are even close to on the same page with the long-term potential of Optimus. The valuation of Tesla is going to increase enormously.
If you thought $2,600 per share for 2029 sounded absurd, just you wait till they factor in Optimus. The laughter and the ridicule from short-sided, short-term, micro length investors will reach a new fever pitch. Cathy Wood is a scammer, a charlatan, is the fraud, a liar, you know, this kind of [ __ ] And it has been collecting data every day and sending it back to Tesla.
So, Tesla knows the world's roads from a data point of view, we think, better than any other auto manufacturer or technology uh company out there. Interesting. Um speaking of Elon Musk, a couple of weeks ago there was this record-breaking merger between uh SpaceX and xAI, uh two companies uh both included in the Arc uh private innovation portfolio, a strategy that you recently launched in Europe.
You know what? While we're talking about length, 10 plus years, things happening slowly and then all at once in terms of technologies that are hard to crack like, for example, reusable rockets back in 2015, just over a decade ago, SpaceX was valued at roughly $12 billion. That same year, back in 2015, some guy made a post on a real estate investing forum on the share investing section called hypothetical share purchases, Steven Ryan, it's a familiar name, suggesting that if he had the money right now, he would invest $5 million in SpaceX with a 30-year hold period.
Latest rumors suggest a SpaceX IPO mid-year at potentially a $1.75 trillion valuation, not far off a 150 times return since 2015. Imagine if SpaceX were a publicly traded company that entire time since 2015. Every little setback, every rapid unscheduled disassembly, the volatility on SpaceX stock would have been off the charts.
Remember Cathie's slowly and then all at once comments? Just want to remind you guys, back in 2024, July 2024, SpaceX had a $210 billion valuation. 2 years later, it could IPO at around 1.75 trillion, roughly an 8 X increase over 2 years. Slowly and then all of a sudden. So, what's your take on this operation?
What what do you expect from it? And do you see Tesla potentially part of this whole project in the future? We began to get the the sense that Elon is looking at the convergence among his companies very seriously. Convergence is a word we've been using in our big ideas for we started in 2017, but the idea of convergence, that word really surfaced within the last 5 years.
And Elon on X said, you know, I think my companies are more convergence candidates than I even appreciated. That's when we knew that he was thinking carefully about all of the data sources he has that nobody else has. And AI, if anything, is a proprietary data project. Those with the proprietary data and the most of it and the most differentiated are probably going to win.
Accurate and extremely important as it relates to Tesla and autonomy. No other company is within multiple orders of magnitude of the same amount of data Tesla is collecting and has already collected. So, that's very big picture. In terms of SpaceX and xAI, when Elon started talking about orbital data centers, data centers in space, that's when we got the sense that this was a real possibility, this convergence.
It happened more quickly than we expected. And yes, of course, it begs the question, will Tesla be next? We think that Elon would like to reward the very patient shareholders who have been holding Tesla for the last several years. With the profitability associated with robo taxis. And so we we if Tesla is a part of this convergence strategy, and it could be.
We don't think it will happen for a number of years. I think he'll want to integrate the the space opportunity first. But the frustration of building data centers on Earth finally took Elon Musk back to first principles. Could we do this in space? You know, there are no regulations in space. We could do this very quickly, much more quickly.
And while we don't think he will have as many gigawatts of computing power up in space as he thinks by the end of the decade, we think he'll be well on his way by the end of the decade to meaningful computing power. Remind me this. 10 years from now, there we go again with that supposedly long time frame.
What do you think this SpaceX orbital AI compute data centers in space will look like? Number of satellites, total gigawatts, revenue, annual growth. It's going to be wild to watch this play out. And to Cathie's earlier point about rewarding long-term Tesla shareholders, I am in complete agreement. To me, it is inevitable over long enough time frame.
SpaceX, which again includes SpaceX, xAI, and X, the three X's, will become one with Tesla. But Musk is on the record going back many years about wanting to reward loyal long-term Tesla shareholders. And until Tesla's robotaxi business is being fully appreciated by investors and the valuation of the company reflects their inevitable long-term massive outsize success with autonomy.
If we've got a potential SpaceX IPO now looking at 1.75 trillion, let's be honest, bro, by the time it actually happens, I mean, this thing could be nudging 2 trillion. To merge that entity with Tesla, whose current valuation is a mere 1 and a quarter trillion, would certainly be gently [ __ ] over Tesla investors.
Don't get me wrong. I mean, I'd still be okay with it. But a few years from now, Tesla may have a of extreme success in autonomy, at which point Tesla investors will be far more greatly rewarded with a merger then, when their share in the new combined entity would be a significantly higher percentage than if it happened soon.
In short, Tesla and SpaceX, they are destined to become one. But I'm with Kathy Wood here. Might be a few years before this happens. I will put a prediction on the record, though. It's definitely done well within the next 10 years. Want more content? Early access? A .
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