저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 테슬라 FSD 기반 로보택시가 빠르게 확산될 것이며 미국 주요 도시에서 승객 수요가 클 것으로 본다. 로보택시 기대치가 테슬라 가치의 약 90%(5년 기준)를 차지한다고 주장하며, 곧 공개될 ARK 신규 테슬라 밸류에이션 모델(9월 예정)에서 변수 조정이 가능하다고 소개한다. 로보택시 기대치를 절반으로 낮춰도 향후 5년간 테슬라는 양호한 연복리 수익을 낼 것으로 본다. 영상 후반부는 유료 모델(Patreon) 및 스폰서(AG1) 홍보가 주를 이룬다.
다듬은 글
Here is Katie Wood discussing what is probably her favorite topic— Tesla. namely Tesla. We know Tesla has had some issues lately, but I was struck by your words that it is the best AI company that will reveal its true immense value when driverless taxis soon become commonplace . Yes. So tell me about it.
People will be stunned by your words. Explain what you see in your " crystal ball" regarding Tesla. Actually, it's not a crystal ball. Um, I have a Tesla with the FSD system. This is a very new model. I wanted to test the latest software. And, um, here in St. Petersburg, Florida, where we are now, I don't have to use the steering wheel, the gas pedal, or the brakes, and I don't have to park or parallel park.
The car does it for me. Of course, it's not perfect yet, but we're getting closer to the point where everyone in the United States who has ever been in a robo-taxi or autonomous vehicle is starting to understand how enjoyable the experience will be. In many ways, this is already the case. But when we can sit in the back seat without a driver...I believe you have Uber in Australia, right?
Many people don't really like getting in a car with another person or don't like getting into a car that might have a certain smell or something. This is normal. Although this is the absolute truth. Everyone watching this (unless , of course, you're at home all the time) has had many instances where they 've taken a taxi or Uber ( more often a taxi, because you can't properly evaluate the driver there) where the driver stank, was terribly annoying, and talked on a headset to a relative abroad under his breath the entire way, instead of paying attention to the road.
I didn't shut up, even when you said: " Excuse me, brother, I need to work a little , could you give me a break, etc." And I'm not talking about strange behavior at all. Your adorable, young, 18-year-old daughter is going out alone for the first time in the evening. She is going home. And there's some weirdo sitting with her in the Uber or taxi .
This is probably not the best option. You can continue indefinitely. Most people, unless they are extroverts, would prefer a driverless ride if given the choice between a random driver and no driver at the same level of comfort. So, this is a more advanced product . Autonomous transportation is not at all the same as Uber or a taxi with a driver.
This is the best service. something. So, uh, and they, you know, definitely don't want to talk to this person when they're trying to work. I don't know if you've encountered this. Here, you see, is one of the examples that I used myself. How many times have I taken an Uber or taxi and made it clear to the driver that I literally had to work, so a little peace and quiet wouldn't hurt.
And they just wouldn't shut up. This is incredible. Now in Uber, in some of the more premium services , you can literally choose options like cabin temperature, cooler, warmer, blah-blah. And also, do you want peace and quiet? Even then, sometimes I had an Uber driver who, despite me choosing the "Dude, shut up" option, wouldn't shut up .
This isn't such a big problem for people who don't try to optimize every moment of their day for productivity, but for those who do , who have the opportunity to spend 15-20 minutes on the way to the airport or somewhere else to do things, and they're constantly interrupted , man. It's like someone is stealing from you.
They steal your time, they rob you. Of course, Katie Wood had that experience too. that experience. So yes, we believe that the spread of robotaxi will happen slowly, slowly, and then instantly. And I believe that in the United States in certain cities, San Francisco is one of them. People, especially women, are willing to pay more than Uber and are willing to wait longer just to get autonomous transportation .
And I think this attitude will spread throughout the country. Of course. Option one: risk ending up in an Uber or something similar with a potential weirdo. Option two: no chance for a potential weirdo. Well, hello, that's obvious. Certainly, throughout the United States over the next few years. Okay.
You made me laugh when you were talking about it very seriously, but you still made me laugh when you said you could drive to work, then tell it to drive to work all day, make money , and then come back and pick you up. Tell us more about this. It was like that. Yes. Well, for people who want to do that, uh, you could, uh, send your car.
It's part of the Tesla platform, and, um, you could say, "Why don't you spend a few hours and give people a ride." If you did this for just an hour a day, I think you would pay off the cost of the car. We've done these calculations before, but you would pay off the car loan in two to three years. This is a very attractive offer for people who do not have a high income to purchase the product or even lease it or take out a loan for a Tesla car.
Now he is yours. You can use it for yourself, and when you or your family don't need it —it can drive around and earn money for you . As long as it's parked at work, home, at night or on the weekend, it can more than cover the loan or purchase price. This becomes an incredibly attractive proposition.
This will help sell a lot of Tesla cars, a lot. I still remember being a penniless student many years ago, actually , for a couple of decades now. If I had the opportunity to take out a Tesla loan so that it would pay for itself, generate even more, and provide passive income, I would grab it with both hands.
Instead of driving some old junk, I could have a much safer car that would also bring me a steady income. I would be thrilled about that. Think of all those families today who can't afford a car or two, are forced to use public transportation, or are barely making ends meet . Imagine being able to purchase a product that will not only pay for itself, but will also start bringing you additional, ongoing income.
I mean, it would fundamentally change the rules of the game. And we are very close to making this a reality. As Katie notes, she almost never has to interfere with driving her car. This is no longer crystal ball divination, no longer some guesswork. You can see the capabilities of the software today.
Unless you're a completely limited person, you might look at the rate of progress and the trajectory and say that in the future we'll reach a point where no intervention or supervision is needed. It will be legal to use FSD without supervision in certain regions of the US, probably city by city, possibly statewide.
And at this point, say in Florida, unsupervised FSD will become legal throughout the state. Why wouldn't someone living in Florida borrow a Tesla Model 3 or Model Y for a couple hundred dollars a month, have it run as a robotaxi, and cover all the expenses while earning some extra money on top of that ?
Unless you're making a million dollars a year and you just don't give a damn about the extra easy money, why wouldn't you want to do it? Instead of being an expense, the family car can become an asset, an income-generating asset. Uh, so we think it's going to happen. Now, shall I put my car up? Actually, my Of course not, because Katie Wood is doing relatively well in terms of income and assets, and so it's not worth the hassle .
But for those especially in the bottom half of the median income and below, man, this is going to be incredible. But let's expand on this example. Why the hell not get two or three Teslas if you have space in your garage? Have an entire park that brings you a small regular income. Of course, there will be some work, some maintenance, cleaning, whatever.
It's like Airbnb for your car. It's not completely passive. You know, you need to change your underwear, do some laundry, blah- blah- blah. But overall, it's almost entirely passive income, easy money. Would you like to get some easy money for a little inconvenience , a little hassle, and a small amount of your time?
The answer to this question for many families in the United States will be "yes." A new one, maybe my old one. But not my new one , but Tesla will organize and maintain fleets. So, let's just talk about the future of Tesla, and you, you're a big fan of Elon Musk. Uh, you, you, you clearly have to look the other way at some of his unusual actions, especially in Europe and things like that.
And that probably didn't help Tesla's sales. But my feeling was that you're not just saying that Tesla is not going to rely solely on selling electric cars. There is something more to this business . So, what were you talking about? Of course. Uh, and in fact, the market is already starting to evaluate the possibilities of robo-taxis , because a year ago in June, Tesla launched its robo-taxis in Austin.
And we are starting to see an acceleration of deployment in different cities. And by the way, I think for the first time, Tesla in Tampa, which is right across the bridge from us here in Florida, is going to launch its robotaxi service before Waymo. Well, this is a first, and I think they're sending a strong signal that we're going to see a lot more cities sooner than many analysts expect.
According to our research , the robotaxi opportunity alone will account for 90% of Tesla's value in 5 years. We currently have a published target price of 2600, but we have received much more data since the development of that model, so we are preparing a new one, that is, a financial model, which should be released in September.
And in this model you were wondering when the new Tesla model from Ark Invest would be released. They usually come out in the first half of the year, if I remember correctly, so September, the next month, is not bad. I'm looking forward to seeing what it looks like. You will be able to manipulate variables that we believe are important for Tesla's long-term valuation.
If you think we're being too aggressive about introducing robotaxi, you can reduce the numbers and see what happens. We believe that even if we cut our expectations for robotaxi by half, Tesla will still deliver very good compound annual returns over the next five years. Naturally, I will be covering the new ARK model in detail when it is released.
This is only a five-year model, but Katie Wood is obviously expecting very good returns over the next five years, given the current situation . Even if you cut their valuations in half, if you can't wait for ARK's new five-year Tesla valuation model , why not take a look at my new 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model on Patreon.
Link below or go to patreon.com/solvingthemoneyproblem. Just like in the Ark model, I also have many adjustable numerical parameters. If you think it's too aggressive, you can reduce them . If that's too conservative, which, to be honest, is probably because I was trying to correct my past optimism, you can scale everything up.
In addition, there are four default scripts already built in . There is a base case scenario that I tried to make as conservative and understated as possible, again to compensate for my past optimism. There is also an optimistic scenario, much more aggressive. There is also a moderately pessimistic scenario, as well as a scenario of complete collapse if everything goes awry.
For more information, simply click on the link below or go to patreon.com/solvingthemoneyproblem. However, the main conclusion is this: it is difficult to predict the exact timing and shape of the S-shaped production ramp-up curve, but it is clear that Tesla occupies a dominant position. They are on the verge of success.
They have already produced thousands of Cybertrucks, which are being spotted all over the United States, with initial testing ongoing. The launch of the Cybertruck may take place in just a few weeks. It is not difficult to predict the ultimate goal, the only question is how quickly we will reach it.
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