저자: TashaKeeney · 외국인
요약 보기
Ark Invest 측은 Optimus가 Model S/X 라인을 대체해 여름 저볼륨·내년 여름 고볼륨 양산 계획이며, 로보택시가 향후 5년 테슬라 가치평가를 주도한다고 주장. 로보택시 연 이익 범위는 $10k~$100k로 넓으나 Grok 분석상 25퍼센타일 베어케이스는 $16k~19k. Ark 2029년 테슬라 적정주가 $2,600 제시. Optimus 시장 규모 $26.5조(제조+가정)로 언급되나 5년 모델에는 미포함. 테슬라-xAI/SpaceX 합병 가능성은 있으나 당분간 분리 유지가 바람직하다는 입장. 발표자는 합병 시 테슬라 주주 이익을 강조.
다듬은 글
Today, some clips from Arc Invest, a recent discussion, Tasha Keeney and Kathy Wood sharing their opinions. First, Tasha on when Optimus will actually start to have an impact on Tesla's earnings, and then Kathy Wood on the potential Tesla xAI merger. Um well, you know, we know that Tesla is very serious about scaling the Optimus platform.
We heard in the last earnings call that they are dedicating what was previously the Model S and X uh production lines to Optimus. This is true, and the reason for this really just comes down to speed. Tesla has existing space in existing factories that they can reuse to begin ramping up production for Optimus much faster than if they were to start building a new expansions at some of their factories for production.
The Model S and X were very low-volume vehicles, but also quite profitable. In fact, they could have continued to produce them. Nice little side income stream. A very profitable side income stream, but they've obviously made the decision to delete the S and X just to get moving even faster on Optimus, which tells you everything you need to know about what they believe the longer-term potential is for their humanoid robots.
Um with low-volume production uh beginning this summer scaling to high-volume next summer is is the plan. Um in terms of the impact on earnings, you know, we do expect robotaxis to dominate the Tesla story, particularly the Tesla valuation story um over the next 5 years. We think that robotaxis could be a very cash-flow generative business.
Um we could see high single-digit to double-digit thousands of dollars of cash flow off of this business per year per car. That is quite a range in terms of estimates on potential profit per robotaxi per year. High single-digit thousands up to almost 10,000 into the two-digit thousands, which could be all the way up to $99,999 per year.
back. So, I've done a little bit of digging, found a fairly recent clip of Tasha talking about a Tesla robotaxi potentially doing up to 100,000 mi a year. I'd probably say that's on the higher end, charging a dollar per mile, so obviously this is reasonable scale. So, therefore, $100,000 a year in recurring revenue.
She then mentions the potential of double-digit thousands in operating profit per car per year. Now, I'm quickly heading over to GitHub, going to download the latest Tesla valuation model from Arc Invest, then have Grok save me some time and a lot of brain power. Just giving these to Grok to analyze, probably done before the time I finish recording this.
Latest version of Grok 4.20 is so fast, even Grok heavy, which I use exclusively. I'm just going to have Grok analyze every cell in every one of these spreadsheets to try to explain what's going on. The reason that range anywhere from high single-digit thousand up to just an arbitrary double-digit thousand is so unbelievably broad, basically from $10,000 up to $100,000.
The only possible explanation for this is if Tasha is covering all of her bases and referencing the absolute worst-case scenario in their Monte Carlo simulation, I believe they did a few thousand to generate the Tesla model, all the way up to the best-case scenario. By the way, looking at that file name, nice.
Let's check Grok. Took me 27 seconds for this analysis, and this explains it. Arc's bear case from their Monte Carlo simulations is the 25th percentile at $16,000 to $19,000 profit per robotaxi per year. Just giving Grok a new prompt, robotaxi profits per year at the 5th, 10th, 15th, and 20th percentiles as in even lower, even worst-case scenarios.
Here's Grok's response, took just over a minute. By the way, just to be clear, Grok's having to do a lot of extrapolation here. This is the best we can come up with. So, these are Grok's derived results from the models published in Grok ranges, which includes miles per robotaxi, the downside EBIT margin, blah blah blah blah blah.
Bottom line, the 5th percentile, we start to touch that high single-digit thousand range. So, this seems to explain Tasha really covering her bases there. So, back to the earlier summaries, 25th percentile bear case called 16 to 19,000 bucks per year. Base case, 25,000 to 29,000 per year. Bull case, 41,000 to 53,000 per year.
I even asked Grok, "Hey Grok, maybe I'm Are we sure? Is that what Tasha meant? Was she really just covering the full range of the simulations on robotaxi profit per year?" Yes, exactly. Apologies for that deedoo, but it had to happen. I'm hearing high single-digit thousand thinking, "On what planet is it only up to $9,999 per year?" Which, by the way, would be an incredible business anyway.
And now we know. That was basically the one in 20, e.g., the 5th percentile downside scenario from Arc's latest model. Um so, this will totally change the Tesla business model, and we think we'll be very profitable for Tesla, um turning what were, you know, hardware margins into software-like margins uh for the majority of the company.
Um so, Optimus, you know, Akash on our team has done some great work suggesting that we think they could it could be human proficient on a on a task basis or human human equivalent um by late 2028. Um that is later than what Elon Musk plans. Um so, you can think again, they they plan to increase the task and the proficiency of Optimus in the next 5 years, um but just because we think that robotaxis are such a huge opportunity here, you know, we think the global TAM could be over $10 trillion in revenue.
Um that is what we expect to dominate the next 5 years. What about the next 10, 15, 20 years? Yeah, and Tasha, just in terms of sizing the humanoid robot market, um I think uh our current estimate for both the um manufacturing or industrial side and home uh from a revenue generation point of view is uh 26 and 1/2 trillion.
It's just a nice tailwind coming on the end of the robo uh not end, but as the robotaxis scale, there'll be another scaling opportunity with humanoid robots in the next decade. Kathy Wood's correct, and I just have to say a moment of silence for anyone who's ever sold any Tesla stock before robotaxis scaled massively and before Optimus Arc's estimating $26 trillion in revenue on humanoid robots, 50% industrial and the other at home.
Wow. Tell you what, it really would be nice if Arc's model extended at least over a 10-year period of time. Obviously, there's a great deal of uncertainty, but they're acknowledging right now that the Optimus opportunity is colossal. It's going to dwarf robotaxi, yet it doesn't comprise a single dollar of their 2029 estimated fair valuation for Tesla at $2,600 per share.
The best we get is Kathy Wood describing it in a very understated manner as a tailwind coming on the back of the colossal robotaxi profits over the next 5 years. Yes, absolutely. It's a larger opportunity just in terms of timing. Um exactly. Almost spoke too soon. Give us the 10-year model, guys. I'm in This is the closest I think we've got from Arc Invest.
They acknowledge Optimus isn't in their valuation model, but it's a massive opportunity, meaningfully larger than robotaxi. It's just their mere 5-year time horizon that doesn't lend itself to substantial enough revenue and profits from Optimus relative to robotaxi, which is going to be enormous, that it's worth modeling.
Damn. Now, onto Tesla, SpaceX, xAI merger synergies, monopoly risks. Kathy Wood and Tasha Keeney both will share some thoughts. Do you believe that it would have made more sense for xAI to merge with Tesla because you could combine those two AI teams? Part one. Part two. Um given the SpaceX and xAI merger, it gives the appearance that SpaceX may uh favor deploying space compute to xAI.
Could there uh be a monopoly risk that brews in the future for these two companies? Sure. I'll I'll start, and happy to have others fill in. Um so, you know, Tesla and xAI uh well, Elon has mentioned in the past that um you know, Grok can act as the orchestration layer for uh robotaxis and for Optimus.
And then uh more recently, we're hearing more about, you know, macro hard or what he's now calling digital Optimus, um where the two companies can work together. Um he describes it as Grok is is doing the thinking and uh digital Optimus is um the instinctive part of the mind. Um so, it can process the last 5 seconds of screen time, for instance, on your car and inputs, um and use the AI 4 chip to run, so it's basically a system that's deployable at the edge um using video input, you know, which we know is uh is sort of an Elon company specialty here.
Tasha, just say it. It's okay to say it. They're inevitably going to merge. You know it. They should. It's inevitable. It's obvious. It makes sense. The two companies, Tesla and xAI, technically SpaceX, which includes xAI, are like a couple on a date with a lot of chemistry. They're getting closer and closer and closer until one of them ends up inside the other.
Just say it. Um so, the companies can clearly work together, and we we know that uh Tesla also has plans of building a fab, and they design in-house chips. Um but uh you know, we've talked about this before in terms of a possible combination. You know, I mentioned the robotaxi opportunity earlier. Um we do believe that because we're just in the early innings of robotaxis today, and we expect this to be a massively cash-flow generative business, um that we think that the public equity investors um in Tesla should should benefit from that first.
Um so, we, you know, it's possible there could be a combination further down the line, um but we would, you know, at current support uh keeping them separate so that we could see robotaxis scale. Good. She kind of said it. Just to be clear, I agree with Tasha and Arc Invest on this point. And what they're getting at here is Tesla's current market cap, call it if you're lucky, depending on the day, $1.5 trillion.
SpaceX likely to IPO at least 1.5, if not maybe $2 trillion. A merger around that point in time would mean roughly 50/50 share of each. But Arc's own models suggest 4 years from now, Tesla could be an $8 trillion-ish dollar company based on their $2,600 per share fair valuation, almost entirely on the back of their robotaxi business.
In short, it's in the best interest of Tesla shareholders to get much more bang for buck in the case of a merger between SpaceX and Tesla. For Tesla's market cap to be meaningfully higher than it is today, and to represent a larger slice of the final merged pie. When it comes to SpaceX, uh you know, of course, so this is now Tesla can um design and produce the chips, SpaceX sends them up, they can power models for xAI.
Um it Again, I I mentioned that it's it's possible that these companies could combine in the future. Um you know, in terms of uh monopoly risk, well, okay, so Elon has mentioned actually that um although, you know, probably depends on uh Tesla's own timeline for chip production, but that SpaceX could send tranium or TPUs up into space.
Um of course, you know, we see with innovation in general that it's a huge advantage to be vertically integrated. Um so, it's one reason that these companies could get together. Um you know, they operate in different markets today, so hard to say anything about um any kind of regulatory picture here.
Uh but as I mentioned, you know, near term, um we expect Tesla to remain separate. I think uh just to add a little bit there, uh it was very interesting. Uh I'm going to say it was maybe three or four months ago, Tasha, when uh Elon uh said on X, "You know, I think I think my companies are converging more than I thought they would." That was our clue that something that that there would be some movement in this regard.
Uh so, uh it's pretty exciting for us because this has been one of our watchwords, convergence. And uh Brett Winton, our chief futurist, features in our big ideas in a section called the great acceleration, a sphere which shows uh the five major innovation platforms uh around which we've centered our research and investing.
Um and the 14 different technologies involved uh in these platforms and shows the convergences between and among them uh today. If you'd looked at the the sphere three years ago, there would have been fewer uh lines, you know, connecting the various technologies and thinner lines, meaning uh we didn't think they would be as impactful on one another as it turns out they will be.
So, we're delighted to see Elon Musk moving in this direction. Seems like Kathy and Tasha believe that it's definitely on the cards, a Tesla-SpaceX merger. Not guaranteed, but if it were to happen, better for Tesla to be with a few trillion dollars than one and a half, if it's lucky. And finally, just speaking of convergence, just want to put this on the record.
You can see this coming from a lightyear away. xAI will, at some point, find itself working on genomics, longevity, health, disease prevention, gene editing. In that space, there is so much potential for AI to improve people's lives, health, well-being, to reduce suffering. It's only a matter of time.
We've got macro hard, we've got Grok, xAI has its own video game lab in the works. It's only a matter of time before xAI sports a new entity focused on human health, longevity, and what AI can do with what Arc calls multiomic.
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