저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
투자자의 가장 큰 과제는 매도 시점보다 역발상 투자가 통할 때까지 버틸 수 있는 기간이다. 마크스는 많은 사람이 '올라서' 또는 '내려서' 팔지만 둘 다 근거가 되지 않는다고 주장한다. 매도는 펀더멘털 재분석, 기존 투자논리 점검, '오늘 이 가격에 다시 살 것인가'로 판단해야 하며, 보유 자체가 정당한 경우도 있다. 영상 후반 요약 채널은 하락 시 시장 전체 문제인지 기업 고유 문제인지, 상승 시 밸류에이션과 성장성을 점검하라는 체크리스트를 제시한다. 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
Of all the books that have ever been written about investing and all the words, I would guess that less one less than 1% have then have been written about selling. They're almost all about buying, when to invest, what to invest in, how to choose what to invest in. One of the big challenges is, of course, how long you ride the wave.
And that whole question over selling is so difficult. And I wondered when, you know, what have you learned specifically about exiting positions in because that down wave is coming? Well, if I may interpose my view, the great challenge of after you've done something unusual isn't figure out figuring out when to get off it.
It's figuring out how long you can stay on before it works. Because if you do something and it doesn't work for 6 months or for a year or for 2 years or for 3 months, might you be wrong? And commercially, can you endure? etc. So, this is the first challenge. Not figuring out when to get off of winner, that's that's that's a minor problem.
Figuring out how long to stay with something that that isn't working, that's a big problem. And, you know, I I use all these sayings in the memos in my books and that I've learned [clears throat] from other people and I've learned so much. The first of the great sayings that I ever learned in the early '70s was that being too .
So, uh remember what I said, to be a unusually successful investment investor, you have to see something other people don't see or you have to see something differently from the way the masses see it. So, you see something, you think this is better than most people think, you invest in it, but that doesn't mean they're going to change their minds the next day and say, you know, Howard, you were right and bid it up.
And it it that process can take a long time. How do you last? And uh so, that's the first question and of course, the answer is you need a strong stomach, good constitution, uh not too much emotion, and the resolve to stay with it. But, you know, if you stay with it for 20 years and it doesn't work, then you're an idiot and you're out of business.
So, there has to be some happy medium there. That's what I wanted to say in response to your question. Now, I'll give respond to your question. When do you get off? [snorts] And it's interesting because of all the books that have ever been written about investing and all the words, I would guess that less one less than 1% have [snorts] been have been written about selling.
They're almost all about buying, when to invest, what to invest in, how to choose what to invest in. And I wrote a memo uh by the way, this is a good time to say that if anybody's interested in reading the memos, they're all available at the Oaktree Capital website under the heading of insights, memos from Howard Marks.
And they're all free, so the price is right. Uh so, I wrote a memo mm sometime around 2016 or '17 called selling out. When do you sell? And you know, most people, I say half facetiously, I say that most people sell for two reasons. They sell things because they went up and they sell things cuz they went down.
They went up and they say, I better sell some because if it goes back down and I haven't harvested any profits, I'll kick myself and I'll look like an idiot. Or they they buy it and it goes down and they say, well, I've I've bought it and I lost half my money, I better sell it before I lose the other half.
And I'll feel like an idiot. So, a [snorts] lot of selling is designed not to do the smart thing, but to avoid feeling like an idiot. Now, if you if you accept that people sell things cuz they're up and sell things cuz they're down, then by definition they can't be both right. Because taking the same action in response to two diametrically opposed events, how can they both be right?
And the answer is neither is right. You shouldn't sell things just cuz they're up because if they were a good buy in the first place, maybe they have further to go. And you shouldn't sell things just cuz they're down cuz if they were a good buy in the first place, maybe they're better now that they're cheaper.
So, selling cuz something's up or selling them cuz something's down, neither one is right on its face. Right. There can be personal situational reasons to sell like you need the money. Or, you know, you need $10 million to retire and you're at 15. And if you go back at six, now you don't have enough money.
So, there are legitimate reasons to sell which are unrelated to the merits of the investment. But, if you're free from those and you're just concerned about the merits of of the investment, then obviously there's only one reason to sell, which is you reanalyze it. You examine your prior thesis. You you look to see if your prior thesis is still correct.
You look to see if there is still room for appreciation under your prior thesis. You maybe reformulate your thesis to update it. And then you say, is it an investment I would make today? And if the answer is absolutely not, then you probably shouldn't hold it. But, you know, most people who are doctrinaire, who are I would say smug, say everything's either a buy or a sell.
I don't think that's true. I think there are things that are legitimately hold help legitimately holds. That is to say, you bought it when it was 10, now it's 20. You update your thesis. When you when it was 10, you thought it was going to go to 20. You update your thesis and you now you say, I think it can go to 25.
Well, maybe you don't want to buy it for the trip from 20 to 25, but maybe you're feeling good enough about the trip from 20 to 25 that it's still worth holding. So, there's some some more juice in the orange. Selling a winning stock is harder than buying it. And that's why most of the investors underperform.
Just because buying is easy, that does not mean selling is. And that's where emotions take over. So, in this video, I'll give you a simple checklist to decide when to sell your stock. Now, think about this. Why would anyone sell a stock that keeps going up? But, here's the truth. No stock goes in a straight line.
Even the biggest winners fall again and again before going higher. The real question here is not when it rises. It's when it falls, what do you do? If your stock is falling with the market and there is no damage to the fundamentals of the business, then panic selling is the biggest mistake you're doing.
But, if your stock is falling because the sector is struggling and the industry outlook is weak or the fundamentals of the companies are deteriorating, then holding on to such stocks is not conviction. It is denial. Now, flip the situation. What if your stock is continuously rising? Should you never sell?
Not really. You should consider selling when the valuation of the stock is too expensive. When the growth outlook is uncertain or earnings expectation starts weakening. So, here's a checklist. When falling, check if it is market wide or company specific. And check if the fundamentals are intact. When rising, check if the valuations are overstretched.
Check if the future growth is still strong. Use this checklist every time when you have to decide between holding or selling a stock. Because in investing, knowing when to sell is as important knowing what to buy.
Comments 0