저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
유동성이 높을수록 투자자가 과도하게 매매해 장기 복리 수익을 놓친다는 주장. 장기 보유가 큰 수익의 원천이며, 채권(고정수익)은 수익이 제한적이고 손실이 비대칭이라 방어적 접근이 필요하다고 설명. 영상 내 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 2015년 메모 'Liquidity'를 인용한 일반론.
다듬은 글
If you look at the chart of a stock that's been up for 25 years and you say, "Man, I wish I had that stock." The hardest thing in the world is to hold a stock for 25 years and have it see it go from one to 10 to 100 to 1,000 and not sell it and then watch it go to 10,000 and 100,000. And that's how you make the big money, but you have to hold for a long time.
And you know, about five or six years ago I wrote a I wrote a memo maybe five or six or seven about liquidity in the market because everybody was talking about the fact that the liquidity was down because the banks had been removed from the investing process by the Volcker Rule which said that they couldn't make risk investments for their own account uh because they were kind of public institutions and the government had an implicit promise to bail them out if they got into trouble.
Well, why should banks be able to make aggressive investments for their own account and get rich if it works, but then get bailed out by the government if it doesn't work, which makes a lot of sense. So, uh So, the point is that um So, so I wrote a memo about liquidity six or seven years ago and um I made the point that liquidity isn't always a good thing because most people trade too much.
And [clears throat] in our distressed debt accounts, they're what's called closed end accounts. The client permits a certain amount of money to be invested and the funds have a 10-year life which is subject to extension if needed and they can't withdraw their money. They can't trade too much which means they can't sell at the at the lows and buy at the highs the way most people do.
And so I talked about the the fact that liquidity isn't always a great thing and selling and buying too much and trading too much is not a good thing. And Andrew says he says and I quoted him in the memo. I said he said, "If you look at the chart of a stock that's been up for 25 years and you say, 'Man, I wish I had that stock.'" He said, "Think of all the days you would have had to talk yourself out of selling." And it's true.
I mean, the hardest thing in the world is to hold a stock for 25 years and have it see it go from one to 10 to 100 to 1,000 and not sell it and then watch it go to 10,000 and 100,000. And that's how you make the big money, but you have to hold for a long time. And and instead most people sell. And and I would said, "Well, why don't you just sell some?" And I had this I had this I've always had this rule that if you sell half, you can't be all wrong.
But you also can't be all right. And it's kind of like my favorite fortune cookie which says that the cautious seldom err or write great poetry. They they really the cautious really have disasters or huge successes. And that that was my experience, but of course in in fixed income, there's no such thing as a huge success.
Uh because the the returns are asymmetric. You can't make much, but you can lose a lot. So, if you're in a market where you can't make much, but you can lose a lot, then by definition you're you're uh your approach has to be asymmetrical because the possibilities are asymmetrical. Um and your your approach has to favor defense.
Graham and Dodd in in the Bible Security Analysis in 1940 called fixed income investing a a negative art. Uh you succeed not because of what you buy, but because of what you exclude from a fixed income portfolio. So, the point is that to hit the big successes, you have to hold for the long term. And you know, Andrew and I had that conversation all the time.
I would say, "Why don't you just sell a little?" Take It's called taking profits. And he said, "No, I'm going to let this run." And of course, so far of course he's he's right. Most of the investors behave differently depending on one simple thing and that is liquidity. When you plan to invest in something which can't be sold for many years, you automatically become very serious.
You do the research and also become conservative with your assumptions and think long term. But when something which is easily tradable like stocks, we do the opposite. We invest casually without any conviction because we know we can sell anytime. And that's where most of the investors get it wrong.
As Warren Buffett says, "If you can't hold a stock for 10 years, don't even think of holding it for 10 minutes." The goal isn't to trade frequently. The goal is to own great businesses whose earnings will grow year on year because when the earnings compound, stocks eventually follow. But here's the hardest part, holding on to stocks.
Even the best investments test your patience. You feel like selling it because of news, emotions, profits and with the juicy new ideas. Think about stocks which has gone up consistently for 20 years. The chart looks smooth, but hides hundreds of moments when the investor felt like quitting. Liquidity makes it easy to act, but not always wisely.
So, here's a simple rule, think like a business owner and not like a trader. And as Buffett says, "If you can enjoy your weekends without looking at the stock prices, try doing it on weekdays as well because sometimes the less you look, the better you invest." I pulled this summary from Howard Marks' memo titled Liquidity from 2015. I'll share the link in the pinned comment. Do check it out.
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