저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
스페이스X 기업공개(IPO) 수요가 공모가 750~850억 달러를 크게 웃돌며 상장 직후 급등이 예상된다고 주장. 스타링크 가입자는 연 700~1,000만 명 증가 중이며, 스타십 V3 위성 도입 시 발사당 대역폭이 20배 이상 늘어 연간 가입자 증가 폭이 크게 확대될 수 있다고 봄. 발사당 약 10억 달러 매출 및 궤도 데이터센터(AI 컴퓨팅) 잠재력을 강조. 전통 투자자들의 고평가 비판은 테슬라 사례처럼 반복될 것이라고 평가.
다듬은 글
Here's Arc Invest on the SpaceX IPO and the company's future growth prospects. SpaceX, as you know, has submitted an application. We all read its documentation. It is preparing for listing. Katie, you have extensive experience investing with Elon in his various ventures. Uh, and here we have another one that's about to come out.
What do you think about this company, which, um, clearly has amazing ambitions, and, um, could be taken to the public market, which looks at an income base rather than a valuation base, which is very different from what they're used to. How do you think this will be received and how do you think people should think about it ?
Well, judging by the demand for SpaceX that we've seen in the private markets, hmm, I think it's well above the proposed 75-85 billion. Just adding context, I can confirm, at least by hearsay, that it is now well over three times that, if not significantly, by the time things settle down. Yes, huge demand compared to the offer of only 75 or possibly up to 85-87 billion.
Uh, and just like we've seen with other proposals, I think we'll see a spike right away, especially if , uh, someone tunes into our models and our thinking about the impact of, uh , Starlink and orbital data centers, the Moon, and then , eventually, Mars, etc. Uh, we have this long-term, uh, time horizon.
Uh, and then it's going to be really interesting, at some point it's going to reach a level, and we don't know what it's going to be , and it could happen very quickly, where more traditional players will come into the markets and use the valuation as an excuse to criticize the stock , and it's already happening, which is quite predictable, a lot of traditional investors who follow the rules will try to classify SpaceX as one of those, which by the way, there's no other, this is a unique company that's trying to shove it into one of those holes, even if it does n't fit in there anyway, and then they'll continue to value SpaceX as one of those, that level of "potato brain" will be quite a fascinating sight .
Imagine for a moment that you are so dumb that you are looking at SpaceX's uniquely dominant launch business, which has been in second place for over 10 years, and unfortunately just blew up a rocket on the pad, not even during launch. Condolences to Blue Origin. Rockets are hard. SpaceX now controls approximately 85% of the world's entire primary orbit .
One company, 85% the only company that regularly reuses orbital- class launch vehicles, has a much lower launch cost and a much higher launch frequency. There is nothing else to compare this incredibly dominant startup business to. And this incredibly dominant launch business uniquely enables Starlink.
But many of these traditional investors with very high IQs will look at Starlink as a simple telecommunications company, of which there are many by comparison. Oh, that's one of them. This is a telecommunications company. How do we rate a broadband internet provider? What about the mobile service provider?
You see, this is one of them. That's easy to appreciate, brother. I don't know what they're talking about. I want to highlight this one slide from a recent SpaceX investor presentation. It is not discussed enough. Today, Starlink is operating on the second version of its satellite, 27 of which are launched on each Falcon 9 rocket, providing a bandwidth of 2,600 Gbps.
The third-generation satellites launched on Starship will provide 60 satellites, each with more than 10 times the bandwidth, meaning each Starship launch will provide not 2,600 Gbps, but over 60,000. That’s a more than 20x increase in bandwidth in a single launch. There are no comparable telecommunications companies that have a window of opportunity within a reasonable period of time to increase their customer growth rate by 20 times.
As of this writing, Starlink has approximately 10 million home broadband subscribers today, and their annual growth rate appears to be between 7 and 10 million customers. So consider that almost a doubling in a year. But if you take that 10 on the high end and multiply it by 20, then Starship launching V3 Starlink satellites at the same rate as today's Falcon 9 Starlink launches could allow Starlink customer numbers to grow by over 100 million new customers per year.
Maybe 200 million customers a year, so you should compare Starlink to any other telecommunications company on Earth, because they're exactly the same. This is just another one of them. When it comes to AI infrastructure, ground-based and then orbital AI computing , it's clear that there are no examples of companies that can do it on their own.
For example, I don't know if Anthropic or Google are paying SpaceX AI a couple of billion dollars a month for access to AI computing. Because if they were, it could hint that there is also something unique going on in their ability to rapidly scale large coherent clusters of AI computing. Hmm, oh, but there are companies called Anthropic and Google that are currently paying SpaceX a couple billion dollars a month for access to AI computing, so you should definitely ignore that.
And assuming there's nothing to watch here either, then this is just another one of them. And since data centers in space are not yet being built, and I am a traditional investor , I am adamant that I am not even allowed to think about it. So, ignore Katie Wood, she's absolutely right here. You can expect an increasingly loud chorus of cries from traditional investors and, no doubt, a number of academics, economics professors , busy lecturing their university students about how the economy works, instead of being financially independent.
Don't think too much about how SpaceX is extremely overvalued and then cite their analysis, which includes really awkward comparisons between SpaceX and what they considered a comparable company. And believe me, when I say an increasingly loud chorus of screams, I mean it. It will only get worse. Um, we've seen that before.
Uh , Morning Star must have come out and said it was half the price of this one . Uh, and of course, we have, uh, you know, a completely different story. Uh, and the reason we do this is because we have five analysts working on this. This is the story of the convergence of our lives. Even Elon nine months ago started using this concept: wait a minute, my companies are converging, uh, faster and faster than I thought, because obviously he was referring to this orbital data center.
So I think you'll get that initial surge and we'll definitely be there teaching, teaching, teaching, teaching and we'll see what happens. The fact that this will hit the indexes as quickly as it seems is the case. Uh, index providers are dropping their previous recommendations for, uh, SpaceX. Uh, it depends on how big an index, uh, SpaceX is going to be , which will provide natural institutional support, especially from those institutions that don't get as much as they want in the beginning.
So I think there's going to be a lot of support that way, but at some point, uh, you know, we're going to have bare bones stories like we had with Tesla and all the other stocks, uh, that we own... By the way, I just want to make the simplest prediction of all time. I can guarantee you a thousand trillion percent that every person who has spent the last decade screaming about Tesla stock being overvalued will immediately start doing the same thing with SpaceX.
And they will justify it by saying that Elon Musk has magical power over his cult of morons. And so, even though the stock market has been telling me for the last 10 years that I'm wrong and Tesla isn't overvalued, I wasn't wrong, because Elon is an amazing cult leader. And so when I continue to argue that SpaceX is overvalued for the next 10 years, only to be proven wrong later, I won't be wrong either, because Elon is just a cult leader , and his cult is just morons.
By the way, I'm not kidding. You won't find any, I mean, you might find something similar, but let's just talk about hyperbole for a minute. You won't find a single example of someone who was previously extremely skeptical of Tesla, who has repeatedly said that the company's stock is vastly overvalued, who won't turn around and say, "Well, I thought Tesla was over." I still think so, but SpaceX actually looks like an extremely valuable company.” You won't find any examples of this.
Yes. Yes. Disruptive innovations are, by their very nature, both volatile and easily misunderstood. That's why they are destructive. Um, and you can imagine how the market treats companies. It's like a company we see in the rearview mirror. It's next year when the company tells us what it's going to do.
And then, after this next year, we just force things back to a normal average. You know, you know, I have to give credit. Brett summed it up perfectly. I would describe it as ignoring, because that's what's happening. What does the company do? What they tell us is what they are going to do in the very short term, and then everything else that is illegal to even think about, to ignore.
But he is absolutely right. Things that take years or even decades plus are almost completely ignored by traditional investors. And that approach to SpaceX, you know, I'm sure people will take that approach, and it will dramatically lower your expectations of the value of SpaceX compared to understanding that the company, as far as we can understand and model, has the potential for a very, very high return on invested capital.
The reason they go to the capital market is because they need to build rockets. If they build the Starship rocket, launch costs could drop from around $1,000 per kilogram to less than $100 per kilogram. If they have rockets that cost $100 per kilogram, they can load them with satellites. One Starship full of satellites could bring them about a billion dollars in revenue per year for 5 years.
Uh, did you listen to this, you piece of [ __ ] ? Did you hear what he just said? I'll just give you a minute to get everything sorted out . Each Starship launch, based on the disclosed V3 throughput per launch, Starink V3 satellites, each Starship launch of Starink satellites could add a billion dollars in annual revenue from Starink users in a single launch.
I'll just repeat it again . Launch one Starship, turn on a billion dollars. Now he says 5 years , and the reason is that eventually these things break down. They are not permanent. This is so that you can keep up to date with future generations. They are leaving orbit. So, one Starship launch, $5 billion over 5 years.
Let's just call it a billion dollars a year, ignoring the recurring nature. Has anything like this existed before? By the way, the answer is no. If that's the only thing you take away from this video, so be it . The way ARC tried to assess the possibilities here. We looked at this before with a 20x increase in throughput per launch, but they called it a dollar figure.
Now these ratings, that's all they are. Over time, the amount of money that average Starling subscribers pay for their services will decrease. But just think about the consequences. A billion dollars for launch. Absolute absurdity. But wait, we're not done yet. Guess what? Guess what? Are you ready?
Are you sitting? So, um, I don't know if you know this, but are you ready? There is a limit to how much a consumer like you or me is willing to pay for home broadband or mobile connectivity. Do you know what else you can launch on a spaceship? Data centers, which now and in the near future seem to be in near- endless demand from extremely wealthy large companies, who, for example, are already paying a couple of billion dollars a month to SpaceX for access to ground-based, for example, ground-based artificial intelligence computing.
So, if you thought a billion dollars per launch or Starlink revenue was crazy, what revenue could each Starship launch generate as it places data centers in space and builds what I keep calling Starlink? Yes, I'll let this sink in. Want more content, early access, and a bunch of benefits? Click the link in the comment to pin.
is packed with ent contains prebiotics and probiotics to improve gut health. I take my health very seriously, and you should too. Try AG1 today by visiting drink ag.com/smr or following the link in the comments of the pinned image and enjoy a free welcome pack of Vitamin D3 plus K2 and AG1 travel kits . This is drinkagg1.com/smr.
Comments 0