저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 시장 급등 속 연준이 금리 인하로 전환할 가능성이 크며, 경기 둔화 신호를 주시해야 한다는 진단. 연준 동결 평가: 이번 FOMC 동결은 주식에 매우 강세 요인이며, 시장 자체가 긴축 효과를 이미 상당 부분 반영했다고 봄. 통화 흐름: 2022년 이후 통화량이 급감했고 최근 두 달간 다시 감소, 은행 예금도 SVB 사태 이후 수준 아래로 하락. 1970년대식 통화 과잉과는 다르다고 주장. 경기 전망: 노동 지표·ISM 약세로 연준이 경계해야 하며, 데이터가 계속 약하면 내년 금리 인하 고려 필요. 물가는 끈적할 수 있음. 실업률 0.5%p 상승을 경기침체 신호로 볼 수 있으나 아직 단정하지 않음. 정치 변수: 내년 경기침체 시 민주당에 정치적으로 큰 타격, 바이든 행정부와 연준에 성장 대응 압력 예상. 연준은 이중책무(물가·고용)를 고려해야 함. 국채 공급: 3.3조 달러 규모 재정 조달이 고금리 하에서 장기채 수요와 금리 하락을 제약할 수 있다는 우려 제기. 다만 금리 하락이 부채 부담을 완화할 것이라 봄. 생산성·AI: 생산성 회복과 AI 등으로 향후 5~10년 실질 성장 개선 기대, 이것이 단기 부채 문제를 일부 상쇄. 연준 전략 전망: 연준은 시장에 예측 가능한 경로를 제시하며 연착륙을 노리는 중. 너무 비둘기파적이거나 매파적이지 않은 균형이 필요. 시장 흐름: 11월 하락 후 12월~1월 산타랠리 통계, 나스닥 주간 6% 이상 상승 등 강한 반등 언급. 출연자 개인 전망: 다음 연준 움직임은 인하, 단 발표 시점은 예상보다 빠를 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
hey guys what's up and welcome in today's video we're going to be listening to Mr Jeremy seagull he says the FED JP pal has to be very alert to slow down he's going to be talking about some upcoming interest rate moves whether that be hikes or Cuts as always I hope you guys enjoy this video hope you learn something if you do smash that like button and subscribe and let's jump into it Jeremy seagull professor emeritus of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business time goes fast you were just on but you were not on uh you were on before we had Wednesday Thursday and Friday of last week so all the things that happened Jeremy I would say you were probably nodding and saying see uh pal has done enough um the market itself has tightened conditions to the point where no more fed action is likely necessary and that seemed to Dawn on on the bond market and even on the stock market yeah absolutely so what is referring to there is the Fed meeting they decided they're going to stay paused so that was very very bullish for the stock market and also the treasuries have been plummeting so we've got a double bullish call for stocks and the stock market rally is back on abolutely Jo and and by the way I think J Powell has to be on high alert because we did get some weak data uh certainly on on on uh the ism jobless claims and certainly on Friday listen let's be frank the FED cannot screw up the way it did on inflation by waiting a year too late now I'm not saying we're going to get a recession or anything like that but he's got to be very alert to slow down and if the data continues weak he really does have to consider lowering rates next year even though inflation is going to be sticky and by the way you know for a long time I I reject the The Narrative that the FED had had oh we can't be like the 1970s the stop go policy we got to kill inflation this is totally unlike the 1970s in the 1970s Arthur Burns and the FED poured on money every single month of the year 8 to 10% in the first half of this year we had a shrinkage of money that was the greatest in 80 years and then it began recovering I felt felt better the last two months money has fallen again liquidity is falling behind Bank deposits have now fallen below the the level that we had after the svb crisis now again I'm just saying it's not the 1970s and I just don't want him to delay the way he did on inflation he's got to be flexible I think that's what the market liked about you know his attitude in the Wednesday he seemed more two-sided but he really has to be truly two-sided because we do have two-sided risk right now and the downside is is looming much bigger than it certainly did uh a week ago so you weren't just kind of nodding a little last week you were like this is all the things that you've been saying we're coming home to roost in terms of whether the economy had already slowed down whether the FED should uh take a light uh touch so so in your view we're still talking about uh data dependency on another hike that's you're still here you you that is not what you think all could be done yeah and you think maybe the next move is is a cut I think the next move is a cut and it might come even sooner than we think uh uh give given the data I mean you know uh I I I'm I'm not predicting a recession we got to look at that data but it's begun to turn we've got to be an alert uh you know some people are talking about we've had a half a percentage Point rise in unemployment some people have said that has signaled many recessions in the future I'm not there yet but I just don't want the stubbornness on the part of the fed the way they were on the you know the inflation side on the downside they have to be on the alert and something else L you know Joe you let off at 6: am because I was listening to you you know with the the New York Times poll can you can you imagine what it would be for the Democrats if there's a recession next year I mean as precarious as their situation is right now I mean wow I mean it it would be disastrous yeah you know and a lot of people are saying oh we're gonna have recession like that's not going to have a lot of consequences it's gonna have the worst political consequences that we've had for decades for the the the power uh you know the party in power the in so that mean what does that mean tremendous political pressure on on uh by the dams and Biden to say hey beat gotta look at this don't forget the FED has a dual mandate um and you know he has to look at that yeah that that I wonder that will play into a problem and now you know the closer we get now it's less than a year so that that is going to be front front and center for for how the the party that's in power decides to to avoid that slowdown what about what was worrying people last week J and that is the uh the supply the supply is not going to go away even if the economy uh does slow and with 33 trillion to finance at these higher rates that so couldn't that cause if people aren't going to buy you know I need to get paid to buy a 10year so yields can't come down that far for me to go out 10 years yeah but you know again yield going down will help that uh debt overhang um yeah and by the way we we we you know I mean I think Ed Gardini mentioned and something I've mentioned we do have a a really strong productivity recovery and the promise of real growth being better in the next five or 10 years with AI and other factors mitigate some of the immediate debt problem I don't think you know the debt problem is going to be the big picture over the next 12 months I'm I say it's going to be whether this slow down accelerates and how fast the FED will respond to it if it impact it does dour it all right we're going to go and we will uh good to have you on and update what you thought all right so there's Jeremy seagull giving his thoughts on what he thinks J pal is going to be doing next he thinks the next move will be a cut me personally I think the next move we're going to stay paused for a good while he has been staying higher for longer even before we got to the level that we're going to stay higher for longer at he's trying to give us a path he's trying not to have any surprises J pal he's trying to tell the economy exactly what he's doing so that there's no guess work he doesn't want to Spook the markets he wants everything to kind of be in a soft Landing he can't be too doish he can't be too hawkish he kind of just has to walk this tight rope and then you throw elections in the mix guys it's going to be messy because the change of power can dramatically change how we deal with this slowdown there's a lot up in the air these next years so maybe even two years Market seem to want to have this Santa Claus rally guys we were down coming into November and they uh statistically over like the last 100 years when you're down going into November November December and January are great times to Rally they call it the Santa Claus rally and it looks like we just started guys we had the biggest weeks in the NASDAQ in forever it was like up six plus perc the S&P 500 was up over almost 5% if it wasn't 5% guys just gigantic weeks there's a lot going on guys so as always if you want to stay tuned with the news hit that subscribe button I thank you for watching hit that like button if you enjoy the video guys and I'll catch you in the next one peace
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