저자: TomLee · 외국인
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8월 초 변동성 충격 이후 시장이 빠르게 반등했고, 경기침체 우려는 완화되어 고용·실업수당 지표가 개선 중이다. 연내 금리인하는 4~5회(약 100bp)를 예상하며 기준 시나리오는 2% 물가로의 하향 경로다. 소형주는 PER 10배 수준으로 리스크 대비 수익이 유리하며 주택·자동차·내구재에 금리인하 수혜가 집중될 것으로 본다. 진행자는 Russell 2000, S&P500, 나스닥 차트가 가짜 하락 후 상승 추세로 복귀했다고 해석한다.
다듬은 글
fun Strat Global advisers co-founder head of research Tom Lee Joins us here at Post 9 on a summer Friday Tom thanks for coming in great to see was it last week was it difficult to keep your bearings in the midst of that crazy PRI action uh without question because the market had been whipsawed by data point to data point as you guys were recapping you know the job support raised recession Fears Big riskof then we got inflation this week which was pretty tame and I think markets suddenly went back to thinking about liquidity coming into markets I I think that the data dependence of the markets and the FED is very tough for investors and I think if you look ahead uh I'd say we always know the summer is tough summer probably runs through October but I I don't think that anything's changed into year end which is should look pretty good but but are you is that are you lower conviction now than you were two weeks ago uh no no change in our conviction but it is just recognizing August historically is a tough month for markets I mean one thing that maybe investors can get be encouraged by is since 1928 the most common month for the summer low is August and the most common week is the first week of August so I think maybe the worst is behind us but it doesn't mean we're straight up from here right and and I guess the question is I keep going back to you know that moment in mid July when we were at the highs you were just shy of 5700 on the S&P 500 and everything was ago it was you know the AI earnings path was kind of unquestioned in addition to uh you know General soft Landing expectations you kind of didn't have a lot of painful trade-offs to worry about in terms of policy or growth can we get back to something like that um I guess the the idea as you say maybe some or less through October uh do do you expect that we're going to have to continue to to reset around these levels uh yeah I think we're it's if my best guess would be it's still going to be a struggle but we're we're climbing the escalator again um you know I think Jackson Hall is going to set a positive tone on balance just because the evidence is growing fomc members want to be forward-looking as you guys are pointing out data dependence is dangerous at turning points and then we get the jobs report for August which I think should reverse some of things that could be temporary I mean that's a guess and if it is then recession risk is sort of reduced but now we have real rates are too high and that means in will be comfortable with cutting I'm thinking back to some of the notes you wrote after the last jobs number and you looked at Hurricane barrel and the M of companies in Texas that had no power for two weeks and you do think August will be uh reassuring on the NFP print yes I mean in some ways the weekly claims is telling the story we had a surge in claims all you know multi multi-month high that have come down since then and so even if someone says there was no effect from the hurricane how do you explain claims really improving so much especially in places like Texas and you know yeah I mean a million homes without power for two weeks how could that not affect the local economy and the jobs Market this rebound that we've gotten from the the lows of early last week initially certainly until yesterday it was back to the first half winners it was a lot of the mega cap growth stocks and and you know the equal weight S&P really didn't have that much of a of a of a pullback and it's closer to its Highs but small caps definitely got a flush and yesterday they rallied big on that uh on that retail sales number but it seems like that's still been a complicated attempt at a rotation that's right you know uh they always say bottoms are tough and bottoms are a process and small caps are really in the process of a multi what we think is a multi- you know multi-year bottom and so conviction is not going to be as strong as things that have been working I think most people's toolkit is to buy the the triple Q you know the NASDAQ or the AI names when they they want to get back in the markets but cutting rates at a time when small cats trade at 10 times forward PE better earnings growth and then a really a visible path to easing I I would say it still makes sense that the risk reward is in small caps and then um you know we had a Miss on housing starts this morning so it's it's funny is the parts of the economy you thought you could rely on for a while maybe you're giving away as other other ones uh maybe start to bottom but what's your thought there in terms terms of the flow through to the rest of the economy um I think housing Auto Sales and durable goods are essentially in recession it makes sense cuz cost of money is so high I mean it's super expensive and hard to afford a home or to buy a car with these rates these are also directly benefiting from fed Cuts because adjustable rate mortgages adjust business loans adjust auto loans credit card they they're sensitive to short Builders loans too I mean if you're a building house right cost of money for Builders yeah so I think these really benefit from a an easing cycle but a a market that believes there's an easing cycle underway what's your how many Cuts you think we get this year I I'm looking at consensus which is somewhere between four and five I before the end of the year yes so about 100 Bas points I think that's right but it it depends on where inflation prints the next couple months but you know our base case is that we're on a Glide path towards 2% that's better than consensus so I think four to five still makes sense and you've been part of your thesis has been that elements of CPI have been falling in your words like a rock I actually saw that phrase repeated in another desk note yesterday so that's that's spreading but are you as assured of that and when you look at things like car insurance or some of the the coincident cost of owning a vehicle as you point out yeah uh I think one of the things that surprises us still is that two things are keeping inflation high on a weighted basis shelter and auto insurance auto insurance adequacy is there now if you look at the results from these Auto insurers they don't need to raise rates so I think that's Cooling and that'll come in the second half and for housing rent is stabilizing and I think housing is going to cool it just needs to get to 3 to 4% and then markets will be comfortable that we're back at two but median inflation rate still 1% that's you know below well I think as as Greg I said this week rent are inertial takes time for those new new rents to cycle in yeah that's right bout so we'll briefly break down those three ETFs so right off the bat you can see the Russell 2000's been chopping sideways for about 6 months now barely making any gains and if we take it a step back this is the weekly chart the first time we were at this price level was January of 2021 so we spent 3 and 1/2 years in the russle without making any gains from today's prices that's pretty incredible so that's what Tom Le is talking about with the multi-year bottom we had a very strong channel in 2022 and 2023 with very strong support and resistance levels we're finally making our way to the top of that channel and making that resistance turn it into a support we now have a double bottom on this resistance turn support and we're back headed to the upside so that is bullish for the Russell 2000 we also have the 45-day moving average breaking back above the 200 day moving average that's a bullish cross that is a long-term bullish cross you can see the opposite happening happened back here when the 45-day moving average crossed below the 200 day moving average that is extremely bearish and we had a selloff and we regained it almost instantly now that we've had the bullish cross we've had multiple years of consolidation we've had the PE Ratio shrink on most of these stocks small caps are starting to look very bullish on to the S&P 500 guys we've had this ascending trend line here for months and months we were watching it heavily when we broke down and even down here on this Monday I was saying guys if we somehow get back Above This ascending trend line the Market is back on and look at this crazy run we've had almost straight up this is what happens when retail panics out all at once and all the institutions buy it up they buy it up so quick that you don't even have a chance to get back in guys that's why you want to play the long-term game only invest in good quality stocks and you want to be able to add when they go down you don't want to be panicking out look at this move it's unbelievable anybody that sold out I almost guarantee did not get back in because they were waiting for lower and lower prices we have now reclaimed the 45-day moving average we've also reclaim this ascending trend line so this is extremely bullish for the S&P 500 from here guys this price action does not lie it seems the Japanese carry trade was just a big huge fake out also coming in the month of August which we know is historically weak so it's really not that big of a surprise what is surprising is how fast we've shot back up also looking at the qqqs the NASDAQ we've had the same ascending trend line we broke way below it touched 200 day moving average bounced off of it nicely and we've just slingshotted all the way back up we have reclaimed the 45-day moving average average and reclaim this ascending trend line guys so we're looking extremely bullish on the NASDAQ and S&P 500 and Russell 2000 we are due for a sideways consolidation or a pullback with a run like this one is needed but that does not mean that the run is over we could just kind of chop around sideways for several days to a week make this a very heavy support show that we're reclaiming it we're not going to go lower and blast off to the upside guys this was one of the biggest fastest shakeouts that I remember and all you had to do was not panic on one day this wasn't even a long pain selloff guys this happened in like 3 days so as of right now all three of these ETFs are looking extremely bullish they have very nice support they've rejected going lower they've bounced off either the 45 day moving average or the 200 day moving average we've reclaimed the ascending trend lines and we're back to the upside guys this is a lot of data to suggest that that was a huge fake out and not a real downturn in the market notice nobody's talking about the Japanese carry trade anymore they're not talking about recession fears the only thing they're talking about is how fast this Market came back and how off size they were this is why we invest for the long term we invest in high quality stocks that we're not afraid for them to go lower if they go lower it's good for us because we get better and better prices on outstanding companies and this is just another example people were panicking out down here way at this 200 day moving average and they've already missed out on almost 12% guys that's over one year's worth of gains in the last couple weeks the market is very risky it's very challenging make sure you're investing in stocks that you feel comfortable in and want to hold for the long term one peace
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