저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2024년 8월 증시 급락(엔화 금리인상 충격, 고용지표 실망, 변동성지수 급등) 속에서 Tom Lee는 이번 하락이 성장 우려에 따른 대칭적 조정이며 VIX 정점 이후 빠른 회복 가능성이 크다고 봄. 금리 하락과 양호한 소비 여건을 근거로 미국 경기 타격은 제한적이라 판단. 다만 8월은 불안정하며 10월 이전까지는 박스권 장세 가능성을 언급. 비트코인은 위험자산 성격으로 본다고 함. 진행자는 기술적 지지선 붕괴 우려를 제기함.
다듬은 글
bring in Tom Lee managing partner head of research at fundr Global advisors as well as a CNBC contributor in times like this in the past had always would help to know uh Tom whether it's a a sharp scary Spike down which a lot of times uh the other side looks just like it or people are hoping for that so much that they don't see that it might have longer to go do you do you get the feeling that this is not going to be a major selloff uh for now I think it is the former that you described you know we have over three days suddenly markets revers and you know Japan down over 20% and as you're pointing out the NASDAQ could even you know decline further um declines like that are generally symmetric but you have to watch the vix and when the vix Peaks and starts to roll over and fall down the recovery can be just as quick I think a lot of this depends on whether Financial conditions in the US start to tighten you know meaning like do Market seize up but with interest rates falling um you know the consumer still in pretty good shape I think on the other side of this it'll look like a growth scare but it doesn't mean that grow scare yes it's kind of uh interesting that it almost looks like the fed the Market's knowing what the FED did didn't do again it's it's almost like once again they're they're there but not really ahead of what of what's happening and they're reacting not anticipating kind of I again yes on the way up and on the way down yeah the two years is signaling that the FED is behind um because two-year yields have fallen further but it does seem like as we look back a lot more this is because of the surprise hike from Japan and the the the sort of on effects from there if that is the primary source of the reaction I know it's going to be tumultuous for markets but for the US economy it's not necessarily bad news and I think that's why we can balance some of your your great and accurate calls have been based on um inflation coming in like you thought much cooler than the market was thinking at the time I guess the flip side of that is that there can be a you know the Dual mandate there can be labor Market weakness associated with why that's happening did is that was the asymmetric risk was it maybe it wasn't as maybe there was a great risk to to uh the job market well you know markets don't like surprise I mean Friday's jobs report was disappointing how far back that they go with revisions down too it almost looked like the whole story the whole narrative that we had is is suspect about that's right and I think many expected that because you know the establishment survey versus household had so many gaps um and so that kind of converging but that means markets are waiting until August payrolls report which is not for four more weeks uh to to really know but I I would say to me it still seems like July even as a bad a report it was it's more of an aberration and I think the trend is still weather there there's a couple of things in it that people yeah there was uh almost a record number of people that were having temporary layoffs and people who weren't working due to bad weather and Texas had a big in j claim so it does look like the hurricane had some effect although the BLS said there was no effect on Thursday night one of the people at your shop said 5390 looks like a good uh S&P support do support levels mean anything and can you want to give me another one or is it just another one to go through well uh you know because it didn't hold it means that there are other support levels that could be important it might not old yeah it could not I think that the vix is telling us watch the vix yeah because it it spiked Friday and then it's spiking again today I mean we're the last time the vix was at this level was April 2020 so for an investor that tells us kind of where we are which is we know markets are nervous and they have to unwind but it's not been a bad time to be thinking that there is an big opportunity the other side because once the vix starts to calm down and markets have already corrected we know that there's opportunity right I knowing that of course it's August as you point out you think the Vicks High 40s is is where it's going to Peak or low 50s I guess you know it's up 100% almost the the vixs may not have a ceiling because we know next couple days there's also some geopolitical events on the horizon and Israel and in Iran and you know we got politics here I mean that's escalating some people think well that's going to turn into a nightmare this week today I well I mean I we don't want to so I think that's why it's all coming to a head this week I mean to me it's it's a very important week cuz we know it's hard to catch a falling knife as you're pointing out support levels are being broken but mortgage rates are falling the consumer is in pretty good shape and you know the job market I think it's very unlikely if the knife is falling and you want you're you like catching falling knives I know you so the question is at what point do you catch the said knife I I spent a time talking to Mark Newton our technical strategist over the weekend and I think that there is a reprieve coming this week like who knows it could even be today right we could open down huge and then after 11:00 a.m.
we could reverse higher but I kind of agree with Joe that this is still August and I think that markets traction really doesn't come back till October so between now and October it's maybe a range-bound market at best but there'll still be opportunities and it's we could call it bit video basically I mean it's just it might as well be in I mean Bitcoin what is bitcoin Gold's hitting new highs Bitcoin you know yields people look for safety they buy treasuries they buy gold people don't buy Bitcoin for safety yeah bit Bitcoin is still mostly a risk on asset and you know there's potentially been some lots of liquidations I think several hundred, accounts liquidated over the weekend and ETFs mentioned in the CNBC clip today we're going to be looking at all the majoret markets and all of big Tech if you haven't looked at the market since Friday guys they are absolutely collapsing this morning at some point the S&P 500 was down over 42% the cues were down over 6 1/2% Guys these are the major economy markets and they were gapping down 4 1/2 and 6 1/2% you can see we're getting bought back up today and there's still a gigantic Gap in the chart if we would have opened up down here and continued to sell off guys it might have been another Black Monday some of these stocks were already down 10 15% Nvidia was down almost 15% at the low of the morning and this was before we even opened the markets guys if we would have sold off and had a lot of selling pressure today straight out of the open easily these stocks could be down 15 20% the major markets would be down over 10% this would be a disaster it is still a disaster a lot of things are going wrong a lot of big money is being lost and a lot of The Upside Trends are being voided as you can see on the S&P 500 also on the QQQ we've been following this ascending trend line for months and months and months and I was telling you guys back here as long as we hold it we're looking looking bullish but if we start to break this trend line hold on to your hats because we're going to have a lot of downside pressure and look how far we've fallen in 3 days on the S&P 500 were're down over 8% guys that's what you're supposed to get in an entire year the QQQ is getting it even worse you can see respected that trend line and as soon as we broke it we have just absolutely collapsed down almost 11% from the low thank goodness we're getting bought up today the Russell 2000 I'm not sure what happened with Tom Le's prediction it's supposed to be up 40% from this level right here at the low it was down over 12% this morning and it's still hovering down around 9 1/2% so that's a bust on the Tom Lee call going up 40% the Dow has also broken their trend line guys this was the one that was looking bullish it was on the way back up and now we've come back and slice straight through this multi-month trend line guys that could mean a lot of downside pressure Nvidia everyone's darling it opened up down here it was at $90 this morning guys it closed on Friday at 103 that is gigantic that's almost 15% down it's made almost all of it back up you can see how much it's respecting the trend line once it broke it drops 15% rallies all the way back up to almost touch it Guys these trend lines are important levels on these stocks Tesla is getting absolutely obler from this point here we jumped over 59% and we've given all of it back again thank the market gods that were getting bid up or this would be a lot bigger disaster than it already is apple look at the day on this we opened up down here guys if we weren't having a bullish day like this no telling where the the markets would be it's ran 9% straight up after dropping almost 11 1.2% these are incredible size moves guys there's a lot of volatility it normally takes anywhere from 6 months to a year to have these stocks move this big look at this unbelievable gap on Amazon guys they did drop on earnings they tried to get bit up on Friday it did not work they sold off again we're still trying to fight up but we have such a big gap these charts are all ruined let's just jump to the vix real quick before we come back to Google at one point guys the vix was up over 180% look at that 180% in one day guys this was from Friday afternoon to Monday morning before the market opened the vix had spiked 180% the markets were down 4 1 half to 6% on the ETFs and individual stocks were down 10 plus% now we do have a lot of news hitting all at the same time we have an election year we have stuff going on with Israel we have the job markets coming in hot we have inflation going up we have the FED still not doing anything we have the consumer running out of money this can get a lot worse before it gets better but that does not mean these are not going to be long-term buying opportunities I'm not recommending to catch a knife or go out and start investing today when these stocks start showing a consolidation and start going back to the upside it might be your chance to get in for a steal of a deal because most of these stocks have all overcorrected back to some of the big techs look at Google these charts would be absolutely obliterated if we started the morning selling off luckily we've been bought most of the way back up we got a lot of support it seems at this 200 day moving average guys that might be the only thing that saved us several of the stocks are getting close to their 200 day moving average That's How Far We've corrected Microsoft second to last these charts all look the same they had incredible bull runs higher highs higher lows just going to the Moon with no stop in sight we came back to this 45 day moving average I said guys if we can hold it we're still looking bullish if we break it Look Out Below now we're under the 200 day moving average on Microsoft that is extremely oversold meta seems to be taking these moves a lot better than most of the stock market even though we do have some incredible volatility here some maj moves I just wanted to give you a quick overview of all of our main ETFs and the main tech stocks and looking at their charts today's not about if you should be buying or selling guys you invest how you feel comfortable I'm going to be dollar cost averaging on the dips on the way down cuz I invest for the long term
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