저자: DanIves/GeneMunster · 외국인
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테슬라 1분기 인도량이 전년 대비 9% 감소하며 시장 기대를 크게 하회. 연간 인도량 감소 가능성 제기. Munster는 주가가 추가 하락할 수 있으나 2025년 중반 쉬운 비교 기저와 FSD 기대로 회복을 예상. Ives는 Outperform 유지하며 장기 기회는 유효하나 단기 전략 불확실성을 지적.
다듬은 글
managing partner of Deepwater asset management and fast money friend Jee mster joins us now and Jean you personally are amongst those uh Legions of investors whose patients will be tested so what are you waiting for indeed uh Melissa first I embracing as someone who's been supportive of what Tesla's doing and optimistic about where this company can go uh I was just stunned today I think that this uh caught me off guard I was expecting it basically to be flat deliveries is down 9% and the first question I asked first order of business is how bad is it going to get the the panel's done a great job of articulating there's going to be more negativity I just want to put that in the context is that going into today the street was looking for about 15% delivery growth in 2024 uh if you look at the numbers they just reported and assume that they can grow deliveries 10% sequentially for the rest of the year deliveries will be down 3% for the year so this is probably more ugly than uh it seems even today and give that change and look what happened in the stock I don't think that's fully priced in so I think Dan you've been clear about that $100 I I don't think we're going to see a 100 but I do believe that the stock is going to go lower because this is going to be what I think is going to be kind of the kitchen sync where you're going to see analysts I had that job for a long time throw in the towel and say that this is going to be over for a long time uh so I want to point that start there second is the bigger picture and I think Tim you were talking about just you know this EV and the EV pitcher uh just to frame that in that's a$ two and a half trillion dollar market what's the auto market on a yearly basis eventually of course it's going to go EV panel appropriately talked about What's the timing of that I think it's going to come faster than most people think even though this is such an ugly day on the delivery numbers and the reason is that I believe one of the the biggest factors in this horrible number was that there was so much excitement around EVS people who typically buy a carv 5 years probably moved it forward and bought it three years pulled a lot of demand in I think eventually that just starts I'm guilty of being too optimistic but I think eventually they get to the other side and one final thought Dan you talked about FSD I agree that that is an important piece here if anybody's tried FSD the beta that they just put out last week it is a step function better than what they've ever done and so I think that is going to come probably in the next year or two and I believe that that's going to be another catalyst so that's where I'm at what can they tell us of anything in the next quarter to that can sort of I don't want to say solve certain issues but for instance if they come out with a lower cost model does that solve for some of the weakness that they will see in China and and address that next wave of growth that investors are looking for is there sort of a couple of things that they can do that can make the story a little bit better so you've got two camps you've got the people who believe and the reason why the stocks not down more today is because that camp still exists the reason why this still as the market cap it does is because that camp still exist they're not going to be influenced probably by another couple Punky quarters that won't influence it the people who are skeptical there's nothing that Tesla is going to say over the next when they report their quarter on the 23rd that's going to get those people more optimistic but uh as an investor I think you need to fast forward to I'm already thinking about mid 2025 and at that point we're going to have some really easy comps I mean this is a down 9% March of 2025 is uh we're going to start to get easier comps I think that starts getting reflecting the stock probably mid to late this year so that's kind of the time frame it's going to be Rocky for the next several months I don't think there's much they can say Melissa well it wasn't a good quarter I want to get to Dan IES and uh everything he's got to say of course longtime Bull on the stock uh from wed Bush Securities manag director of equity research Dan I'm reading your report which you wrote very quickly um let's call it as it is while we were anticipating a bad quarter this was an unmitigated disaster first quarter deliveries was a nightmare quarter for Tesla you wrote Elon is now pressured by the street and China demand remains very soft and you also say in this case Street criticism is warranted but then I end you still have an outperform rating and I wonder why hey look I mean for the long term like in terms of the actual opportunity for Ev for full self-driving for autonomous that's still there but let's just call like it is this is no smoke and mirror I mean if you looked up train wreck in the dictionary you'd see a picture of teso's one cu quarter and you know I think the the big problem is deliveries is how do you reverse the trend and that's why I believe this is a fork in the road in other words musk either turns us around whether it's cutting prices put the strategy in place or David I think we sit here maybe 3 four quars from now and this is actually a seminal moment and the start what could be some darker days ahead if they do not turn this around all right but how what does the turnaround look like you say cutting prices clearly they're facing more competition from China EV makers not just in the domestic Chinese market so what do you do if you're Tesla I think you have to weigh out the strategy okay what are price Cuts going to look like when are the new models coming what could software be as a percent of Revenue what's the AI road mapap right now it's essentially playing darts blindfolder you don't really have an adult in the room the conference calls as we've talked about here have really been horror shows so investors their hope Hing in terms of that what's on the other side of this now in terms of the growth the opportunity 30 billion in cash they're in a phenomenal position from that perspective but I'd say probably this is what I'd say in the last five years probably the the darkest period relative to what we're seeing in China in this quarter explanation mark I all right but you talk about um you know the hope of investors you still clearly have hope as well so what do you base your Hope on you've been I mean the last two minutes here you've been quite negative it's it's that we 3 4% of automobiles are EVS is that full St full self-driving autonomous You could argue that could be a trillion dollar worth of value from a software perspective the China Story You've seen the price Cuts start to stabilize they had a good week of the last quarter so there are some optimism and I still believe you could be toward 2 million units for the year but this quarter there's just no way to sort of glass half fo it I mean this is one where even whisper numbers called 415k 386 a disaster so is the is it Supply or demand cuz we expected some production setbacks in the first quarter to I think Supply would be dog8 to homework maybe call it 30k you could explain that in a press release but realistically it's demand and I think the problem here Sarah is that okay you either going to cut prices or ultimately like you going to hold serve and then focus on what you could actually do but hold margins and where volumes could go the problem is is that you can just put one toe in the water in other words like what's the strategy how you going to you know
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