저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 Fed 금리인하 가능성 상승과 인플레이션 하락 압력(내구재 경기침체, 주택·자동차 감소)을 근거로 소형주(Russell 2000)가 여름까지 약 40% 상승할 것으로 전망. 2023년 10~12월 약 30% 랠리와 비교하며 공매도 포지션과 과매도 상태를 근거로 제시. 기술주 상승 지속에는 회의적이며 단기 에너지 주식은 비중확대에 신중, 장기적으로는 에너지가 유망하다고 봄. 영상의 기술적 분석은 S&P500·나스닥이 45일 이동평균 근처 조정 후 상승 추세선 지지를 기대하고, Russell 2000은 약 3050 목표를 제시.
다듬은 글
guest does say that this Friday's inflation data will likely shift the odds higher of a July and September rate cut supporting the summer a small caps as he said joining us here at post N9 is Tom Lee fun strad Global advisers head of research and a CNBC contributor Tom it's great to have you great to see um you want to start with what the the political news or the economic news what's more important to you do you think uh you know in the short term it's the political news uh but really in the longer term especially into year end it's actually the economic news explain why well in the short term markets are very sensitive to especially at the sector level depending on whether it's a Republican or Democratic taking the White House in November and then especially all the uh Congressional elections and state elections so I I think that's what you're you saw last week is as shifts as probably shifted towards Trump small caps Industrials financials rallied and you're sticking with that call which is for what 40% over 10 weeks yeah I I the the overlap is small caps are very sensitive to a Fed cut and really the probability of a Fed cut you know that that it's finally happening and I think it's going to look like the October to December 2023 rally which was almost 30% this one should be bigger because of the the amount of short positioning and and the amount of oversold in the Russell so yeah 40% by the end of the summer I I just want to dig into it does it make sense that Tech that Nvidia and Tesla and Microsoft and Apple and meta should be outperforming as the odds rise for a Democratic Victory uh some of that it's in a day-to-day it could be noise cuz last week you had the biggest down week for the NASDAQ in quite a long time so I think there is a bit of a deadcat bounce but to me um I agree with you I don't think that the fangs are necessarily A A A kamla Harris you know taking the White House trade but there is some evidence of the fading of the Trump trade as you mentioned Russell's underperforming Bitcoin weaker today financials are lower so are energy stocks well again it's uh you know the the selloff for the Russell started in the middle of last week it's down almost 5% uh it is a mirror image of what happened in October after that first week rally you had a 5% decline over eight trading days and then you had essentially a 25% rally for 7 weeks without a draw down I I'm not sure that's any different today is your long-standing optimism about deflation really changing at all do you expect any surprises on Friday uh I mean of you know one print can be uncertain but I think the force is underway for inflation to Fall Like a Rock are in place I mean the reality is there's a durables recession it's in housing and now it's in Autos that's like 60% of the CPI basket is in a decline until the FED really injects confidence by cutting and so I I think there is urgency for fed cuts to happen sooner but at the same time I think the effect on inflation is there isn't another incremental driver for new inflation so inflation I think is going to surprise to the downside and hopefully it's Friday energy same story I know we've got gasoline Futures lowest in a few weeks and we broke 80 today on WTI Brent below the 200a yeah I I think energyy is a tough trade in the near term because as long as oil's Under Pressure I'm not sure I want to be overweight energy stocks and if there's drilling under Trump that's downside pressure to oil but over the next three to five years I think energy is a great investment but I think this year it's it's not really going to be the spotlight for u lot about the Russell 2000 the small caps they also mentioned the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ so we'll start with the S&P 500 guys you can see I've also drawn a white trend line here where we've bounced off in November and then also in the middle of April we have been on a textbook bullish run with higher highs and higher lows and now we're starting to have a selloff like we did back here in the middle of April and we did here in November the first stop is looking like it's going to be that 45 day moving average if we do end up breaking through the 45-day moving average we should be able to get a little bit more support at this white ascending trend line so as of right now I'm planning for a pull back at least to the 45 day moving average I wouldn't be surprised for it to come back and touch this white line then consolidate sideways and then keep going higher guys we are in a very bullish Market same story with the QQQ we have this white trend line we've touched back here in November we also touched in the middle of April and now we're on our way back down the NASDAQ has actually made it to the 45 day moving average already and it's still looking weak so if we break this 45 day moving average guys the next stop is going to be somewhere around this ascending trend line the NASDAQ does tend to go up a lot more than the spy and the same goes for when they're selling off the NASDAQ tends to sell off a lot more than the Spy but nonetheless they're both showing similar patterns on this white ascending trend line that we've touched in November and April so those are important levels just to keep an eye on for the NASDAQ and QQQ on to the Russell 2000 small caps guys you can see the 2000 price Target we came up made it a resistance right here and ever since we've basically made it a support it took about 6 months once we got back to this resistance to finally make it a nice support line so we went from resistance back here to support right here it was also holding that 45 day moving average and look at the rocket ship move up that it got once it proved that this was going to be a support and no longer a resistance level and Tom Lee is calling for another 40% % from here 40% from here guys would be 3050 in the Russell 2000 look at how parabolic of a move is being called for right now and just in the next couple months guys it will be insane if this starts to play out remember these are just my thoughts and opinions I hope you guys enjoyed the video in one peace
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