저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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미국 경제는 성장세가 이어지지만 2024년 침체 위험과 금리 변동성이 핵심 리스크라는 진단. 경제 전망: GDP가 예상보다 좋게 나와 미국 예외주의가 확인됐으나, 저축 소진과 금리 상승이 가계·기업·정부에 부담이라 2024년 초중반 침체 우려를 제기. 국채 시장: 정부 부채 공급 증가와 연준의 순매도로 매수자 공백 우려. 금리 변동성이 주식시장을 좌우하고 있음. 안전자산: 중동 분쟁에도 미 국채로 안전자산 쏠림이 나타나지 않았고, 10년물 금리는 전쟁 전보다 약 17bp 높음. 연준 정책: 고금리 장기화 전망이며 QT 속도 조절 가능성은 열려 있음. 시장 충격이 커지면 국채 매도 중단 가능성 언급. 과제: 저자는 『Permacrisis』에서 성장 모델 개선, 정책 실수 방지, 글로벌 협력 강화를 해법으로 제시. 시장 참여자 반응: 진행자는 중국·일본의 국채 매도와 빅테크 실적 부진 우려를 언급하며 향후 변동성이 클 것으로 전망. 출연자 Sarat Sethi(DCLA managing partner)는 경제 활동은 정점이지만 임금 상승 등으로 인플레이션은 계속된다고 진단. 빅테크 실적은 양호하나 가이던스가 주가를 좌우하며 밸류에이션 조정 가능성을 언급. 5% 무위험 수익률 대안이 존재해 매도 압력이 커졌다고 설명. 전략: 저점 매도 대신 우량주 추가 매수와 물타기로 평단을 낮추고 보유를 권고. 정치 변수: 대선·올림픽·추가 실적발표 등 불확실성이 이어질 것으로 봄.
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hey guys what's up and welcome in today's video we're going to be taking a look at two CNBC Clips we've got Muhammad Allan and Sarat Seth he thoughts on the economy first with Muhammad he's saying buyers are hesitant in view of what's happening to the supply of government debt then we have Sarat saying we're peaking in terms of economic activity but not inflationary activity so we're going to jump into these videos as always guys if you enjoy them smash that like button let's get started slide in technology stocks and the volatility in the treasury markets and join us right now to talk more about that is Muhammad Al Aran he is chief economic adviser at alian he's also the president of Queens College at Cambridge University and the co-author of the new book permac crisis a plan to fix a fractured World Muhammad let's just talk first of all about the economy because we've got the GDP coming out in just about I don't know less than an hour's time from now that's expected to be a strong number but there are so many questions swirling about the economy where where do you think we stand right now just right before before he answers guys we did get the GDP and it was a little better than expected morning Becky I think the numb is going to highlight two things one is US exceptionalism continues not only is it going to be double more than double the rate of 2.1% for second quarter but it outpaces all other advanced economies the US has been the growth engine for the world it also highlights the challenges the FED faces but what we should not do is take this as a signal of the all clear for 2024 um you know as you know I've always pushed back on the notion that we would have a recession in 2023 I'm a little bit worried about 2024 early 2024 late 2024 how do you see this playing out it's hard to tell I mean we have first The Rundown in savings that's the big issue secondly what's been happening in the interest rate Market is really problematic it's problematic for businesses it's problematic for governments for the FED is problematic for households and that is a significant headwind to economic activity okay let's let's talk about the volatility we've seen in the treasury market because that's been dictating the stock market moves lately too um where do you think the direction is headed where what what happens next in terms of the the yields and why so we know two they seem a little pessimistic today I guess maybe that's why the markets are absolutely crashing guys don't forget we have Amazon earnings at 4:00 and guys it's a bad day in the markets we've got all big Tech down anywhere from 22% to 42% and we're at the lows of the day around 1 when I stopped watching so when I get back to it I'm not expecting anything pretty two things for sure one is that we've lost the anchors to that market we've lost the economic anchor we've lost the policy anchor and we've lost the technical anchor second when it comes to simple supply and demand there's two things that are here and are going to stay here the FED being a net seller and the government issuing more debt so the question mark and you saw that in the auctions yesterday is who's going to buy and that question about buyers isn't going to go away anytime soon you'll hear all sorts of images of catching a falling knife and and things like that and it is a problem because buyers are hesitant and they should be hesitant in view of what's happening to the supply of government debt I I I'll give you a couple of points of push back on that first of all people are reluctant to be buyers governments are reluctant to be buyers unless they look at the potential for conflict around the globe geopolitics May Dominate and push them to a position where they say we're looking for a safe Safe Haven US Treasury is still going to be that correct it should be that but let me give you some numbers before the conflict started in the Middle East the 10-year treasury was at 480 today it's at 497 and we still face the risk of um escalation of that crisis you know there's been two big puzzles and they speak to how unsettling the volatility US Treasury has been one is you haven't had it been the safe haven we haven't seen the flight to Quality the flight to safety that you would expect given what's happening in the world the second thing that's that's equally counterintuitive is you have people talking about Bitcoins about Equity being the safe asset because they've lost confidence in government bonds being the safe assets because of the nature of this interest rate risk so yes it should be the safe haven it should have already benefited but the reality is that the 10year yield today is a good 17 basis points higher than it was before this latest conflict erupted Mohammad If the Fed says it's going to keep rates higher for longer and I believe them if they think that inflation is still a problem that they will not lower rates but if push comes to shove and there's nobody else buying treasuries I I dispute your first point your first given which is that the FED is going to be a seller of treasuries I just think if push comes to shove they would be more likely to stop selling treasuries than they would be to uh lower rates that that's a possibility um the question mark will be does we do we have both economic weakening and do we have some sort of scare about a market accident if we have those two things then rates will come down um look messing around with QT is not that simple what the FED has wanted what the ECB wants what all central banks want is that the reduction in balance sheet be like watching paint dry predictable gradual nothing to see there that's what they want yeah they want that but they also want markets to not react in a horrible upheaval and I I don't know which one would win out if those if those issues all came to a head so we have a press conference next week that would be a great question to ask Steve okay as to as to how flexible is the approach to QT right now Muhammad your new book is permac Crisis a plan to fix a fractur world we've got 40 seconds left how do you fix a fractur world what a great title for a book guys the plan to fix a fracture world that is exactly what we have right now I'm interested to hear his thoughts and then we'll wrap up the video fix three things that are all fixable I mean this is a book that's full of Hope one is you you alter the growth models to grow more inclusively and respectful of the of the planet two you stop making these policy mistakes that we've made and third and perhaps most difficult is you try to enhance cooperation Global cooperation where there is a global challenge these are feasible there are engineering solutions for all three we just need the political leadership those are all a lot of great points guys I'm definitely going to have to check out that book I bet it will be very interesting but back to the government debt situation guys we've got China unloading their debt Japan unloading their debt we're unloading our own Debt Guys we've got nobody to buy it and it is a bad sign you that with everything else that's happening in the economy now we got stocks falling rates Rising the FED still hasn't done what it's needed to do we've got elections coming up we've got the Olympics coming up we've got more earnings coming up guys we have so much big news in this stock market it is going to be very choppy to say the least now we're going to jump into Sarat sethi's thoughts on the economy guys as always I hope you're enjoying the video earnings and Market action Sarat sethy managing partner at dcla and a CNBC contributor has anything U changed your world viw with with what we've seen in the the first two or three weeks of of the reports well I think it's interesting when you look at companies and you talked about you know U alphabet saying hey we're going to spend more money so then they get penalized and if anyone says our next couple quarters is a little bit uncertain you're going to see your stock sell off so you see that with meta so unless you say hey we're going to make our earnings for the next couple quarters right now it's sell first ask questions later and honestly when you have a 10e at 5 % there are other options so the shortterm kind of trade is if I don't think the Stock's going to do well for the next couple quarters let's move out now that's not what we're doing but I think you see a lot of retail doing that and you're seeing Algos do that do you believe companies that say yeah everything that is a terrible thing to do guys in my opinion to sell at the lows you never want to sell out on fear you if anything you either hold or if you're going to do something you add and you leverage down you bring your cost average down and you wait for it to ride back up now that's obviously goes for good Blue Chip companies or good solid companies that you know the fundamentals of that are going to keep growing into the future not just any penny stock but assuming you have a stock that you've done research in and should more than likely keep growing into the future you never sell at the lows guys you you add to them and you hold on to your position for sure things great for the next couple of quarters there seems like there's so much uncertainty right now like you're sticking your neck out if you're telling me everything's great you really are so it's kind of the hey if we think you know we're going to make our expectations for a year or two it's much better than saying we're going to stick by the next quarter but right now the Market's saying we have other Alternatives so if we don't like what you're doing especially with the m mnon 7 I mean I think they were put up on such a pedestal that it's going to be very hard for them to maintain these multiples and then you're seeing that kind of spread through the market as well that's exactly what's happening today in the markets guys The Magnificent Seven their earnings are good but maybe their guidance isn't the best and when you tell people that they can get a 5% risk-free yield a lot of people are taking that offer and it's a no-brainer and that's why these stock sell-offs are nasty because once it happens it triggers more and more and more then we start breaking supports guys it can get ugly really fast and then all of a sudden we're back at the 20122 lows so this is nothing to play around with we're definitely going to have to be watching these next few weeks um I don't know when headline issues are the most important thing for for the stock market but when you say uncertainty are we still talking about the fed and interest rates or are we talking about this world we're living in well I think it's a combination and they can influence each other I guess the war can Wars can influence right fed in in the economy it's multiple now now it's not just one and the uncertainty there and then it rolls over into the price of oil and then it rolls over into our interest rates and the uncertainty in the interest rat was already causing volatility in the market because we just don't know are we higher for longer or are we going higher higher too and if you get strong prints in GDP and all the inputs for inflation you really got to Fed that stock so in that sense you know multiples have to come back come down valuations have to come down and in the short term you know the interesting part for this Joe is you can find good companies here but you just have to be patient if you're either holding them or you actually want to go buy them so but you would say that there there really haven't been with big Tech any major disappointments in the last three months it's mostly concerned about the next 6 months it really is it's concerned about the next 3 to six months in terms of where earning is going to go where is Cash the Magnificent 7 are releasing phenomenal earnings it has everything to do with guidance and nothing to do with the actual earnings of the stock right now in today's economy there's so much going on especially with this conflict in Israel we've got inflation so high we've got stocks some of them at all-time highs we've got a lot of room to give and a stuck fed that is not something that we want to have both happening at the same time that just equals stocks having to come down going to go uh and then you have an election season coming too so you've got that uncertainty as well uh I think once we get some clarity on interest rates and you know I think the market will adjust pretty quickly and you you'll see m&a activity also every bank has talked about one of the reasons we can't do anything is because people just can't get their arms around where uh Capital Market kind of weird that that when there was no speaker in the house it was possible we were going to run into stutting the government and not having the funding again now we got one and nobody did no one really believe it or it doesn't matter or nobody believes it but I think you kind of had to have one because we're going to be spending all this money giving you know all the money up for defense as well but for defense but it it it really I never saw a blip either way in in stocks or bonds no and and and I think the Market's starting to live with that you know so once you kind of know that's expected it's the other stuff are we going to fall off is this last print here in GDP could we be a half or a third of of what we print now in the next quarter I think so I I think we're peing in terms of economic activity but we're not peing in terms of inflationary activity I think wages are still going up you just saw today Ford I mean that's going to flow through to GM it's going to flow through the others it's got to flow through to it can't just be the big three or a couple of companies or or Union unions can't call the shots overall in in wage but there is wage pressure across the board there is wage pressure and you've seen it in the autos you've seen in the airlines you saw in UPS so I think that's going to be consistent the thing to watch for is not the GDP growth it's really the input growth of where Commodities going to be where are we going to get higher inflation costs and what's sustainable versus what shortterm a lot of great things to look at from satat sethy guys I hope you enjoyed the video I've got to get back to the market if you guys enjoyed it smash that like button and I'll catch you in the next one peace
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