Stocks Are Clearly The Place To Be! says Jeremy Siegel

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이 영상의 결론은 성장 개선이 예상되는 만큼 주식이 채권보다 유리하다는 것이다. [Jeremy Siegel] 생산성 주도 성장으로 올해 미국 GDP가 2% 이상 성장할 것으로 보며, 금리 상승도 성장 기반이면 주식이 낫다고 주장. 장기 자산배분은 연령에 따라 주식 80%~100%를 제시. 지정학 리스크는 장기적으로 매수 기회이며 '구름 없는 하늘'일 때 매수하면 고점이라고 설명. 실질금리 2.5%는 과거 대비 높지 않다고 평가. [Zeb Fields] 마이크로소프트(325달러 지지, 340·350 상방), 알파벳(13주 이동평균 132 지지, 140~150 목표), 메타(지지선 이탈 시 약세 전환) 차트 분석. 메가캡 7종이 이동평균선에서 지지를 받고 있다고 설명. [Aaron Brown, Pimco] 금리 고점 판단은 어렵고 장기채 공급이 계속될 것으로 봄. 2024년 성장이 잠재성장률 아래로 둔화하고 인플레이션이 점차 낮아질 것으로 전망. 연말까지는 실적 시즌과 계절성으로 전술적 매수가 가능하지만 2024년으로 넘어가면 금리 민감 업종이 타격을 받을 것이라며 매도 준비를 권고. 현재 포트폴리오는 듀레이션 롱, agency 모기지 매수, 퀄리티·방어주 롱, 자동차 등 경기민감 소비재 숏. 연말 랠리 조건으로 금리 5% 이하, VIX 20 이하, 실적 쇼크 없음을 제시. 대상 종목 중 개별 예측은 Siegel의 미국 주식(성장 수혜) 선호 발언이 중심이며, 개별 기업 목표가는 제시되지 않았다.

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01. hey guys what's up and welcome in this one we've got three videos to take a look at we've got stocks are clearly the place to be if we get stronger growth says the professor Jeremy seagull then we have some technical support some charts we're going to look at on Microsoft Apple meta and AT&T into earnings then we have Buy on a tactical basis but be ready to sell in 2024 says Aaron Brown so all of these kind of go together we'll start with the professor Jeremy seagull to kick us off as always guys if you enjoyed this video make hit the like button I thank you for being subscribed and let's jump into Itor I think we got your audio back uh can you maybe start your answer again yeah right well let's talk about I mean you you listed some very good reasons why yields have risen if it's stronger growth what would you rather be in stocks or bonds I mean clearly stocks are are the place to be in if we get stronger growth and I don't I don't mean just for last quarter um you know I think the promise of AI is real um this year our growth is being driven by productivity we actually have payrolls that are only half as big increase as we had last year and we had less than 1% GDP growth and this this year we're going to have well over 2% GDP growth this week I'm definitely going to be taking a look at alphabet Microsoft let's see Meta and Amazon I'll definitely check out most of the earnings but the ones I'm going to be taking a closer look at alphabet Microsoft meta and Amazon for sure so productivity driven growth I mean first of all brings inflation down it it's it's good for earnings um but it does Drive yields up higher real growth more borrowing more capital investment I want to I want to be in stocks and not Bonds let's assume let's talk about the deficit suppose the higher yields are driven by the deficit and that may mean higher inflation you know in the future with with big deficits where would you want to be stocks or bonds you would want to be in stocks um now you know Sarah mentioned Japan I I'm not as convinced you know Japan 30 years ago when its stock market peaked off was as big as the United States now it's a tiny fraction its economy and an aging population is declining yes it holds a lot of treasuries but I don't think Japan is the force that it once was so I'm not as concerned about Japan as being a source of the reason but when I take a look at these higher yields especially driven by productivity growth and even if you worry about deficits listen I'd rather be in stocks I definitely agree with Mr seagull guys I've always been a stock picker I always think you can do better in stocks that you pick versus indexes and definitely versus the bonds I'm glad Mr seagull sees it he's even recommended I'm pretty sure at one point to go 80% % equities and 20% bonds maybe even 100% depending on your age so we're definitely getting at an era where bonds are going to be 60 40 or any real meaningful number I think 80 20 maybe 100 Z depending on if you actually know what you're doing in the market you can pick some good stocks guys isn't the geopolitical picture though now Professor um more shortterm right more accute more uh apt to give investors caution right it it it does and these geopolitical problems um are usually opportunities to buy if we look back at history now clearly things could get worse in the Middle East before they get better you know you are invited to try to time that in the market not many people can uh you know what is what is the most famous say in the in the in stocks that stocks climb the wall of worry um and when the CL then there's no clouds in the sky uh you're buying too high I I really think geopolitical risk is in the long R I really like that I don't think I've ever heard that it's very interesting when there's no clouds in the sky you're definitely buying too high guys so in other words if there's no bad news around there's nothing to push your stock down you're you're probably buying it a little too overpriced now on the other hand and an economy where we have like right now we've got so much worry out we've got so many clouds in the sky in history always been the perfect time to buy when others are fearful you get greedy guys run an opportunity to buy stocks not to sell stocks I think the point that I was trying to make Professor on Japan is that not necessarily that that it's you know an economic headwind however it is a trigger for higher rates in the us because we we do see that when there's talk of their yield curve control adjustment then our our treasury yelds rise which is all an economic headwind so I get that you like stocks better than than bonds but and we've had pleasantly surprising growth but now we're facing the fastest tightening cycle that we've seen this big backup in yields and what that does for financial conditions and for consumer spending and quantitative easing at the same time that's the test for growth and for earnings I think she means quantitative tightening ultimately isn't it and you meant I guess quantitative tightening at same time yeah right at the same time right um certainly I think these higher yields have been the source of this you know 5 6% drop that we've seen in in the S&P but then when I think about well is that because of stronger growth then that means next quarter that means next year earnings are going to be better than they would be otherwise um don't for you know we talk about stronger real yields and certainly they have gone up the the 10year tips is two and a half we have to remember when tips came out in 1997 they were three and A2 and within 3 years they were 4 and A2 um so in the long picture these real yields although certainly higher than they've been in the last 10 12 years are not high in terms of history and if we have real growth that's the source of these higher yields I don't think that's a negative for stocks he doesn't think real growth will be a negative for stocks guys if we can if we can have the Magnificent 7 and many other stocks push through in a market like this then when is the time to be 64 in bonds guys I personally never see the the time you're just you're wasting your money getting a less of a return if you're a good stock picker and want to dive into balance sheets dive into fundamentals dive into the actual company and and focus on getting good stocks at a good price you can well beat bonds and treasury yields all right now we're going to jump into this week's earnings they're going to show us a little bit of some support lines and resistant lines on Microsoft alphabet meta and AT&T with uh I guess you could say the granddaddy of them all that's my Microsoft that it is so they all have very similar themes which I find interesting but this one I wanted to chart a daily chart this is where the support is right at 325 and you'll notice that all of the Mega 7 are finding support on moving averages which I find very important and cognizant to watch so we're at 325 right now as long as we hold this from earnings then we've got upward momentum to 340 and then again to 350 if not then we are testing this lower level which is lower of 300 so so you would be bullish on this from what you see I would this is the ample buying opportunity as long as it holds this line if it does not hold this line then that's when we flip to bearish all right let's move on to uh the next one is alphabet yes so Google that's not saying too much is yes we're bullish unless it doesn't happen then we're barish it's like what what did you really say this one we are looking at a 13 weekly moving average this is is a longer time frame and this is honestly my favorite charts 13 weeks represents one quarter of prices so extremely important as we go into earning season this is that's very interesting a 13we trend line I'm going to have to add that to my charts guys that look how it hugs that price movement 13 week never even heard of it sloping upwards which indicates that bullish Trend I want to make sure that that is maintained that is absolutely imperative so as long as this level right here around that 132 is maintaining then we are going to still remain bullish however if it fails then we're bearish once more but if we have positive earnings with that AI story I'm expecting that then we can expect 140 and even 150 from all the way over here so so if it dips below that purple line if the price action dips below that purple line that would be the watch out moment that would be the watch out moment these are crucial it's great it's at support we want to make sure that there's Supply there but if it fails and sellers come in and which case we're going to flip all right walk me through Meta Meta So Meta is also looking at the 13 looking chart right same same chart which is I I love using the 13 week again because of one quarter of prices right now same thing meta is at right at its support line here if that breaks then we are we are looking at here which is that psychological aspect that we talk about quite a bit at one point this was it Teeters between support and resistance constantly so if this isn't maintained so I'm gonna drive them crazy I'm gonna walk over here so all right guys we don't care too much about AT&T so there's some support and resistance lines on the major channels for the Mega cap 7 now we're going to look at Aaron Brown saying byy on a tactical basis but be ready to sell everything in 2024 let's see what she's talking about guys on how to position through the quarter and the end of the year uh Pimco Aaron Brown welcome back it's good to see you nice to see you as well Scott what do you make of of this Market action I mean I'll just ask you plain and simple have yields peaked so I think it's really hard to call the Peak and yields we still have massive treasury Supply which is coming I think key gate date is going to be the next treasury refunding on November 1st but I think absent that with term premiums continue to rise I think you can definitely say that the curve is likely to steepen from here and it's very hard right now to call the Peak and yields are we on recession watch then or or or how do you assess that I do think that we're heading to a much slower growth environment over the next year whether or not we tip over into recession you know I think it's a really hard call to make this point but I do expect that we're going to see growth slow below potential we're going to have inflation gradually come down and I think that the tals for the outcome you know are are particularly wide right now which does make uncertainty high and make a really tough environment to be directionally long equities you know between now and year end I think it's fine you know because of seasonal effects because you know we we've sold off recently I think it's fine to have a little bit of a long going into your end but as we turn the page into next year I think those interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy are going to be hit hard and they've done pretty well year to date so I think that's really the key area to watch interesting though you do think that we could actually rally between now and the end of the year cuz I don't know you know the last handful of days as as rates 5% seem to be the Line in the Sand you know if you're going to continue to go above 5% it's like okay well maybe that's going to upset plans that the Bulls had for a late-year run I'm interested to hear what she has to say in my opinion we can't have rates go over 5% or meaningfully over we can't have the Vick Spike over 20 we can't have earnings be an upset any of those three it's it's going to start it's going to be dramatically harder to have this Santa Claus rally might even end it so I think the Market's largely been pricing in higher and higher yields you know really for the bulk of 2023 and and 2022 and and that's why you know we've come off pretty significantly over the last three months and really in the third quarter with respect to equities going into your end we have an earning season which is set up optically to look actually pretty decent we're going to get a lot what she means by that is year-over-year comparisons are going to be pretty easy to beat and we've also most of the mega caps have been flat for about 5 months so they they have two big reasons to go up a beat on earnings and they've been stagnant for a little while about a third of the S&P reporting this week but I think you're going to have and here pretty decent earnings coming off of what continues to be a pretty strong economic environment so I think for that could set up pretty nicely for a year-end rally you know that said I think what's going to be really key is how companies are indicating for the year ahead and I think you could see a lot more ambiguity a lot more uncertainty so you know while I expect that we'll see pretty decent earnings this year you know for the rest of this year I think as we move into the you know 2024 the the earnings setup is going to be a lot more difficult so I would say so she thinks we're going to beat earnings but that either they'll give no guidance or bad guidance into 2024 we won't know until we know you know Buy on a tactical basis but get ready to start to sell as we move into 2024 on what I think is going to be much tougher comps next year you are you I'm sorry to step on your toes there you are a PM over there Port portfolio manager what what's your biggest position right now uh right now our biggest position is in duration I mean we we think that duration right now you know not too dissimilar from the comments that were made uh you know o overnight by some of the tweets we've heard from from uh some HED fund we want to know what stock you have the biggest position in goodness managers we think duration is you know pretty attractive at these levels you know particularly for medium to longer term investors mortgages agency mortgages you know just given the sell off are really cheap versus intrinsic value so we also think that that looks attractive in equity space we're long quality we're long somewhere defensive assets and short some of the cyclical specifically consumer cyclicals like Auto okay so she's specific spefically not giving individual company names guys we've got a lot of people calling for good earnings this season we always know when a lot of people are on one side though the opposite tends to happen we have everybody calling for good earnings but weak guidance into 2024 so that could just mean we blow off the earnings beats and we still sell off guys it's going to be pretty hard to put new capital to work in any of these next few weeks it'll probably start to be a little easier after this week when we have some direction from the mega caps like she said we have almost the third of the the weight of the S&P reporting this week guys so it's a huge week as always I hope you guys enjoyed today's video if you missed earlier video go check that out I hope you guys have a great rest of your day and peace