The Market Has Lost ALL It's Anchors says Mohamed El-Erian

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결론: 시장이 정책·기술적·경제적 닻을 모두 잃었다며 미국채 금리 급등 속 변동성 확대가 지속될 가능성을 경고, 연준은 사실상 추가 인상 쪽으로 몰리고 있다는 진단. [시장 상황] 미국채 10년물 금리가 5% 부근으로 급등해 시장을 압도, 테슬라는 실적 발표 후 장중 9.5% 이상 하락, 미국 주간 실업수당 청구건수는 19만 8천 건으로 예상보다 적었다. El-Erian은 시장이 정책 닻(연준의 데이터 의존 과잉), 기술적 닻(안정적 매수자 상실: 연준·중국·기관 손실·일본 우려), 경제적 닻(금리 상승 시 저가매수 유인 약화)을 잃었다고 진단. 금리 변동이 격렬해 수요자가 나타날 가격까지 과도하게 하락(오버슈팅)할 위험이 있으며, 이는 신흥국형 투매 역학이라고 설명. 공급 증가(재정적자)도 금리 상승 압력. [연준 전망] 파월 발언을 앞두고 El-Erian은 연준이 데이터 의존에서 벗어나 전략적 방향을 제시해야 하며, '연준은 끝났다(추가 인상 없음)'는 메시지가 필요하다고 주장. 그렇지 않으면 시장이 추가 하락할 것이라고 봄. Piegza는 노동시장이 여전히 타이트하고 소비자가 탄탄해 연준이 관망하기 어렵고, 물가 상승 지속 시 추가 긴축(0.25%p 이상)이 필요할 수 있다고 전망. 다만 시장은 이를 아직 반영하지 않았다고 평가. [투자 시사점] 금리 고점 인식과 변동성 확대 국면에서 현금 확보 필요성 제기(El-Erian 결론). 단기적으로 주식 하락 리스크를 강조. [리스크] 연준 발언이 매파적이면 시장 추가 하락, 비둘기파적이면 반등 가능성. 물가 재가속 및 에너지 가격 상승이 주요 변수. [출연자 전망] 연준 추가 긴축 가능성 존재, 2% 물가 달성은 수년 소요될 것으로 예상.

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01. hey guys what's up and welcome in today's video we've got a two-piece it's a busy day in the market we've got Tesla dropping on earnings down over 9 and a half% at the lows of today we've got the US Weekly job claims totaling 198,000 fewer than expected we've got Dron pal and Biden speaking today guys it is a big day hope you guys enjoyed these videos first we're going to be taking a look at the market has lost its policy Technical and economic anchors says Mohammad Aran then we're going to check out the the FED is being backed into a corner to take a firmer policy position says Lindsay Pigza however you say that name as always if you guys enjoy these videos please hit a like button let me know and let's jump into them sharply yesterday as treasur yield surg to multi-year highs rates will be in Focus again today as Traders await us key speech from J Powell at noon joining us now is Mohammad alaran chief of economic Jerome pal Mr J pal is speaking actually right now so right after this video I'm to go check out the markets adviser at Alan and president of Queens College at Cambridge University he's also co-author of a new book permac crisis a plan to fix a fractured World Muhammad uh good morning good morning Mike uh so of course we've been uh been talking about the treasury market it's uh it's using up a lot of the uh the markets oxygen here uh clicking toward 5% on the 10-year treasury now there's a world in which you can say oh we're just pricing out imminent recession risk uh and investors at the long are now getting properly compensated perhaps for the risk of holding longer term uh fixed income securities and there's a a way you can find that there's an equilibrium that that stocks can reach with this on the other hand we're not really repricing the FED path very much inflation expectations are not seemingly behind the move and and the moves have been violent so how do you read the why of what's happening with Bond markets and the implications of it so as you say you can provide very focused answers but that's not the point the point is twofold one is that this Market has lost its anchors it's lost its policy anchor it's lost its technical anchor and it's losses economic anchor um policy-wise If the Fed is excessively data dependent it doesn't provide enough of a forward look as to where it's going add to that that there's debate about RAR there's debate about the lag effects of the rate hikes there's debate about the monetary framework there's debate about as as well what do you do with QT so policy is not an anchor technicals are not an anchor because we have lost the reliable buyers we've lost the FED we've we're losing China the latest data so that China is reducing institutional investors are under water we've lost them and we may also lose Japan and then the economic anchors on there and then short term and that's what's of concern is the inherent stabilizers are weakening so people who would come in every time yield went up in order to lock in that interest rates have been catching a falling knife so they're less Keen to come in right now so it's the way in which treasury yields have moved that raises both economic and financial concerns the way I usually uh try to explain when markets get volatile and and they seem to swing around in price a lot is that the market is always hunting for buyers or sellers with conviction and when there's less conviction on the buy side it means prices have to go down more to find those buyers who are willing to step in so I guess it always is a matter of you know at a at a clearing price we're going to find some kind of stability here is there any way uh you might guess where that is when it comes to yields very hard I before he answers I was going to say it's very hard to tell all those people that were that he's talking about that could be expected to be buying and want these prices day after day all of this economic un certainty is not going away it weighs on people's minds it makes them think you know is this the F the fed's lag how bad is it going to be we do have a lot of negative things happening all at the same time while the government is at the top of their balance sheet it's it's a it's a pretty scary market so the buyers that he's talking about that could come and step in they might choose not to step in or they might choose to step in at a lot lower level so I wouldn't be surprised to have some Panic we do have the Vick spiking over the last couple days it's back up to 20 guys if we start shooting over 20 hold on to your seats to guess because you have a inherent asymmetry we know Supply is going to go up and Supply is going to go up in a serious manner because of what's happening to the government deficit we don't know where the buyers are going to be and at what level so we will probably overshoot like you say in order to find the buyers the trouble with overshooting is that it causes distress sales and that's why the more we move violently like this the more you risk an even larger overshoot now that's a dynamic a technical Dynamic that we typically see in emerging markets in a high yield we are seeing it Mike in the most important segment of the financial markets which is us treasuries they are benchmarks for so many other things that's why it's really important to keep an eye on that we need this Market to stabilize Mohammad all this is great and very important but we have to get through today and Powell's talking today and my Lord look at the parabolic moves on these treasuries man they are crazy the 2year I mean the 30 years up over 5% it showed on that first chart what we did is took a look at Powell's dashboard and when you look at that how the economy has changed since he last spoke at the meeting generally the real economy stuff has been to the upside when you look at what's happened to retail sales when you look at what's happened to GDP when you look at what's happened to jobs stuff has come in to the upside inflation a little bit more mixed when you look at the inflation numbers some of the headline numbers were a little bit higher some of the core numbers a little bit lower or unchanged tell me what you think the message is from Powell today does he steer us either way towards additional rate hikes or does he give us higher for longer thanks Steve as you know it's a very tough situation to be in he's got to strike such a delicate balance and the risk of not striking it are High um and it's not just him we have six other fed speakers today and people are going to also be looking at them look they have a hard enough job already at the FED just taking at face value what they have to accomplish and then you take on they have to constantly give speeches to the world and know that AI is monitoring every single word every everybody is waiting word after word after word to hear what he's going to say how negative he's going to be how hawkish he's going to be they try to put questions to trick them into answering how far ahead they're looking and if they're in control or out of control and all these things and he just knows how to ride that edge and always be where he wants to be if he wants to come off hawkish he'll say a lot of bad words if he wants to come off doish he'll say a lot of good things about the economy and how much they're in control so it's uh I'm interested to see how today's going to go also his job is to basically say nothing Muhammad well I would hope that his job is finally to Pivot to Pivot away from this excessive data dependence because if he retains his excessive data dependence he's going to have to give a hawkish signal because of the how strong the economic data has been in the third quarter mamad I got to pck you down on that though I'm sorry I'm sorry to cut you off but but to Pivot away from data dependence is to provide guidance so if he pivots from the the data dependence what's the guidance he pivots to that's so Steve you know you know how absurd it is to have this excessive data dependence you are dealing with an institution whose tools operate with lags so the notion that you are targeting a forward-looking economy in either six to 18 months using data that's backward-looking that's inherently inconsistent and yet the FED has ended up in that trap that's why what else you're looking at data have to Pivot to a strategic vision and for me we are seeing major inflection points technically and economically and the message to give right now is the Fed is done we're done that's what the message should be whether he gives it or not I don't know if he doesn't come on and say we're done if he gives any notion that we're going to have to keep going higher guys the market is going to fall out of the bottom today and for a lot longer until he speaks again and says something otherwise he almost has to say that we're done at this point there's so many people so many institutions so much money betting on that this is we're at kind of almost Peak fear we're at the worst it can get and if he says oh no guys we can get a lot worse people aren't going to hold on to their stocks let's just say that I don't know that just it begs the question of what do you do if you're saying I'm not data dependent anymore I've already figured it out I am the great carac and I'm going to go forward with this that's yeah but you realize the metaphor of what Muhammad just said is to be looking in the rearview mirror to determine where how you turn the vehicle 3 miles down the road but that's always been a problem with this I know I know but but it's interesting we got to go but be it hasn't been this fed has been excessively data dependent if you look at prior feds they took a forward-looking view it was controversial at the time remember Greenspan remember banki remember yelling it was controversial at the time but it was critical in anchoring um the markets this fed has only been data dependent and now we have issues because we had inflection points Steve is absolutely right who would want to be in a car that is being driven with lots of Curves ahead looking at the review mirror that's a great analogy but guys this is this how the Fed works on a daily basis this is all the information they have we know they look at lagging indicators it's been the topic years for years now and now we're just bringing it up again and it's like it's new news so really I they're losing me this has always been the case now it's a bigger deal than ever and people are starting to care about it I guess we're going to jump into the FED is being backed into a corner to take firmer policy positions guys that does not sound good coupled with everything else we just saw closer look at the economy the jobs picture and more steil Chief Economist Lindsay pza and my good friend Lindsay thanks for joining us this morning thanks for having me all right what's going on with claims I mean shouldn't we be weakening here we're not weakening well it when we look at the labor market Market data whether it's claims whether it's earnings hiring the unemployment rate what we're seeing is a still very tight labor market so you couple that with an extremely resilient consumer and I think we're still painting a pretty solid picture of the US economy this is going to make it difficult for the FED to continue to remain on the sideline even with the international conflict now making that that timing for the next policy move more uncertain guys in the back I don't know if you have my unofficial power we're in such a weird point in time we fought forever and ever and ever to get to Full Employment we finally get to levels that we've never before seen Max Max employment and now we are begging begging for people to lose their jobs it is crazy crazy data dashboard but if you look at what's happened to GDP retail sales and jobs since the last meeting they're all stronger how does the Federal Reserve react to this Powell has said repeatedly I need slower growth to get inflation down persistently below Trend growth is what he's looking for haven't seen that no and you couple that with the fact that inflation is not just holding steady but many metrics pushing higher then we have an upside potential risk for a further rally in Energy prices the FED really is being backed into a corner they don't want to be but they're being backed into a corner that they have to take a firmer position in policy if and this is the big component if they maintain their resolve for reinstating price stability how does it respond how does inflation respond how does the FED respond well I think right now a lot of it is communication if they do want to maintain this pause on the sideline they have to be very clear that they're only doing that as a further temporary move in order to better assess the impact of the international events better assess Financial market conditions but they remain committed to price stability and they will continue to move forward with further policy firming but that's going to be a very difficult message to send to the market and if the market starts to lose confidence in the Fed we could see longer term rates lose momentum the very reason that the FED has said they may not need to raise confidence in the FED meaning the FED could potentially raise again or what do you mean lose confidence in the FED that they're going to stay the course until inflation is back to 2% okay so right now there's a lot of question marks of whether or not a 3% inflation rate is good enough and the FED needs to be very clear no 3% is not the new to and we we heard this directly from chair Paul and some of his more recent commentary so the market investors have to be convinced that the FED will stay the course and get inflation back to 2% that being said the current projections by fed officials are that they don't get to two until when 2025 correct so there in theory is this leeway for them to say we believe the lag effects are real we believe the long end of the treasury curve is doing some of this work to restrain the economy um we can have some estimate of what neutral rates are we think real we're very restrictive right now in other words it doesn't mean they have to do anything but they have to essentially uh send that persistent message I guess well they have the luxury of remaining on the sideline with just communication if we continue to see this downward trajectory of disinflation but as of late we haven't seen that the headline has reversed course and the longer we see that upward tick in headline the larger the risk that those price increases seep into the core and that will force the fed's hand so we need to we need to see a weakening economy is basically what she's saying guys we've tried forever a day to get the strongest economy possible and now we couldn't there is no better time to have a weaken in economy as far as the FED to stop raising interest rates because if the economy stays strong people keep their jobs money keeps being spent guys that's like telling the FED hey we can handle more got look how look how we're doing you're not slowing us down with what you've done so far we can handle more pilot on and his job is to pile on as much as he can without killing the economy so we're saying pile it on he's saying I need it I need to pile it on what's going to happen guys we're going up so let's see we should be running out of money though as far as I can tell most of the consumers are out of money and they're even farther out of money they're in debt they've got their credit card bills so that line will break and it breaks pretty fast and pretty ugly let's see how long it goes on for see more Improvement in the inflation data to justify a position on the sideline but if we do have if we don't have inflation coming down a quarter doesn't get you anywhere does it I mean I I what I've been saying is if the FED has to do that other quarter it's going to have to do more than a quarter well the fed the median forecast is one additional rate increase one but that doesn't mean that to your point we're going to get where we need to go so I think the the the latest SE suggest that the FED at the very least economic projections thank you correct not everybody's doing all this have that laminated on your refrigerator I I I have it on my forehead got it but I think that at the base case they're saying they're willing to take more action but to your point 25 may not be enough we may need to get to 6% now the caveat there is even if we see supply side pressures remain elevated I don't think that's enough to justify the FED indefinitely raising rates but it does support them holding rates higher for longer separate those two thoughts what do you think about where the committee is if I I have another screen guys in the back there that kind of breaks them up into three different categories we have the category of those who say we're done and by the way we have somebody coming up tomorrow on our air who says we're done we've got those who are kind of in the middle the patient non-committal we've got the May likely what's that that's such a tease who's coming up on our air that's goingon to say you just wait Becky quick I'll tell you in a minute okay hold on a second we have btic coming up tomorrow but those where where do you think the committee is and assuming you agree with these three categories where does Powell come in today I think Powell is additional rate hikes Powell is actually been one of the more hogish members and he has been very clear that the FED has a job to do that's price stability and they're going to do whatever it takes to reinstate price stability so I do think that Paul's comments that what we're waiting for later today will be on the more hawkish side and he will be in the camp of further rate hikes I don't think the Market's there yet I don't think the market is where you are Lindsay if he surprises with a hawkish commentary that puts that quarter point back on the table but he's always maintained that I don't think I I just don't think the Market's thinking that way given all the speech we've had well the market has been consistently optimistic that the FED won't need to raise as high as we've even seen as of late all right guys that wraps up today's video I hope the jpow is not hawkish at this video I'm with what's his name uh the market is not on that page if he starts bringing up the the quarter per possibility we need to just stay paused we need to stay on the sidelines I think we'll be higher for longer I do not think we'll hit the 2% inflation rate for years and years guys a lot of negativity in this video a lot of pricing a lot of repricing to go on and uh if you think the fed's backed into a corner it might be time to get some money piled up guys I hope you enjoyed the video either later on or tomorrow guys peace