저자: TomLee,JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 두 출연자 모두 향후 주식시장(특히 성장주·대형 기술주)에 대해 낙관적이며 연말 랠리를 기대하고, 채권은 인플레이션 헤지로 부적합하다고 본다. 시장 환경: 실적 발표 시즌, 지정학적 리스크, 금리 상승으로 불확실성이 크지만 포지셔닝 정리로 상승 편향은 유지된다는 판단. 소매판매 지표는 소비 둔화 우려 속 연착륙 시나리오를 뒷받침하는 호재로 해석. Tom Lee: 불확실성이 해소되면 주가가 오를 것이며 계절적으로 강한 시기여서 월말을 거쳐 연말까지 상승할 것으로 전망. 소매판매는 연체율 상승, 학자금 상환 재개, 고용 둔화 등 역풍이 있다고 봄. Tom Lee: 카덴스 디자인 시스템스(Cadence)를 추천하며 칩 설계 소프트웨어(EDA) 기업으로 실적 가시성과 멀티플 확장 가능성을 강조. PER 46배에 대한 우려에 대해서도 자본 투자가 적은 소프트웨어 기업이라 정당화된다고 주장. Jeremy Siegel: 주식은 내년 실적 기준 약 17배(기술주 제외 시 14~15배, 소형주 약 11배)로 밸류에이션이 낮은 편이며, 성장률 상승과 AI 기대가 금리 상승을 상쇄한다고 봄. Jeremy Siegel: 채권은 지정학 리스크·금융위기에는 좋은 헤지지만 인플레이션에는 나쁜 헤지이며, 향후 10~20년간 인플레이션 재발 가능성을 감안하면 실물자산(주식 등)이 유리하다고 주장. 다만 인플레이션은 현재 하락 중이라고 봄. Jeremy Siegel: 경기침체가 와도 주가는 과도하게 하락하며 역사적으로 이를 회복해 왔으므로, 장기 투자자는 하락을 매수 기회로 활용해야 한다고 조언.
다듬은 글
hey guys what's up and welcome today we got a two-piece we're going to be hearing from our two favorites we've got Tom Lee saying markets are dealing with a lot of uncertainty from the rates and earnings and geopolitical then we have Jeremy seagull he says bonds have proven to be a very hard a very bad hedge against inflation so we're going to get both of their thoughts as well as I'm going to give some thoughts and opinions as always if you guys enjoy this video please hit the like button I appreciate you being subscribed and let's jump on into them up we just mentioned all the different things in the mix the FED speakers are those potential Market Movers uh absolutely you know markets are dealing with a lot of uncertainty right now because uh we're in the midst of earnings which hopefully is better than expected we've got a geopolitical situation that's uncertain and interest rates have been creeping up again so I think markets remain on edge and I think investors are not that committed I still think the bias is to the upside though because of position positioning investors really position cleared over the last 10 Tom's always a super long-term bull even when everything's stacked against him guys we've got Tesla earnings coming up one of the biggest earnings if you ask me in the next couple days I can't wait weeks all right Tom in all fairness you are one of the biggest Bulls on the street so I think you're generally pretty bullish about the Market's Direction with that bullishness in mind what is your WX word of the day so the WX word of though day is uncertainty but why well it's just uh I I think investors generally like a narrative that's really clear and right now there's a lot of multiple narratives in place but I think that the prevailing story is going to be that this uncertainty clears stocks because investors are sort of not invested and we're in a seasonally strong period we're going to rise through the end of the month and you know into the end of the year as well all right so with this Inc certainty in mind I know you're also looking ahead to retail sales out at 8:30 a.m.
eastern we're also coming off a day with the xrt retail ret ETF had its best day since June what are you expecting from retail sales and as this report are we going to add this to the list of Market Movers uh yeah I mean markets are data dependent so they're going to look at retail sales um I think kind of on the seats Edge because you know you do have a lot of headwinds there we know delinquencies are up and we know consumers have student loan repaying resumptions and generally the employment Market has softened on the edge so uh if it's a good report that would be good news but as you know Futures overnight are a little soft and I think investors are just waiting to see wa of time I want to be clear that's what I wanted to bring up if you guys saw the Futures this morning right before the market open and even right into Market open man you would have thought we were going to have a really big bad selloff but no they yanked it all the way back some of these stocks are at new highs some of them are at a couple percent up some of them are back to break even but they were down percents I think the NASDAQ and the Spy were down even over a percent it was ugly and I went cut some grasses this morning came back all the way back up missed a couple buying opportunities for a day trade but what are you going to do clear so this is a situation where you know so-called good news is actually good news are you're not worried that strong retail sales may make the FED uh more likely to come out hawkish or fed speakers today more likely to come out hawkish is this a data point that you think moves the FED towards a more hawkish turn well I think the FED speak in the last couple of weeks has made clear that they think the rise in long-term rates is is doing a lot of the work for the Fed so they're in the mode that the bar is pretty high for them just to actually increase rates again I think good retail sales would actually be good news because it would show that the economy isn't stalling and headed for a hard Landing but it's it's it's sort of supporting that soft Landing scenario okay uh we are in earning season I want to get to one of your picks right now not reporting earnings this week but earnings are certainly coming up I believe a week from today um it's Cadence Design system give us a sense why is that a smart pick right now as you just mentioned we are in a higher for longer environment well Cadence is is is one of the most important companies in terms of helping design high-end chips they they do Eda and systems integration in this world where there's almost continuous demand I've never heard of this company but that's a pretty good looking chart I would say for a long-term investor and for and shortages of chips they're one of the key players in terms of designing software and it's one of the least known so to us this is a steady grower with multiples that can expand and very good earnings visibility think the kind of stock you want to own especially if you're expecting a year end rally and again it's one of our super granny shots as well all right really quick I have to ask everybody about this because just higher for longer looking at the valuation on Cadence 46 times for earnings even higher than Nvidia 35 times earnings so you're saying you're willing to pay up for the growth potential this company uh absolutely because number one the company doesn't have a lot of capital investment it's a software company but with improving visibility a great capital structure and you know kind of an enviable position I mean they have uh they're really a hand one of the handful of companies that provides the software but again really good visibility High operating leverage got it and it's not well known so it's it's a stock that I could easily see multiples expand right what a crazy guy he wants to pay 45 times for for a non- magnificent seven I don't get it Tom that's one of your crazy calls right now I'm not I'm not agreeing with that one for sure let's get into what Jeremy seagull has to say and uh he's going to give some evidence on how the bonds have proven to be a bad hedge which are supposed to be known to be a good hedge but it's obviously not working that way markets our next guest says that he likes stocks right now and thinks that equities are poised for year end rally joining us is Jeremy seagull he's professor ameritus of Finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business and uh Professor Seagle first of all before he gets into it I wonder if you guys saw the gentleman earlier this week that was calling for um bonds as not really the new allocation he's calling for 80 to 100% in equities and uh that was a pretty big call it got a lot of views let's see how Mr seagull has leaned towards that well thank you for being here um let's talk through your thoughts on this some people think oh boy we we were due for a much bigger pullback we've seen the pullback and you think it's over you think it's uphill from here that equities prices are on the rise why is that yes let let me tell you why Becky uh a lot of people say look at how much bond yields aren't they real competition now for stocks um first of all stocks are selling for 17 times next year's earnings if you take out the tech it's like 14 or 15 if you go to small caps it's 11 and I know there's reasons why but those are very low valuations but more important I think the longterm average with tech is like 16 or something so it's still a little high but it's definitely come down importantly why have bond yields risen so much it's not just the FED it is faster growth than anyone thought that's good for stocks uh uh you know promise of AI the third quarter is going to be a a real strong figure and I don't see really any real weakness in it but more importantly uh and I think this is a major reason bonds have been harmed by proving to be a very bad hedge against inflation I mean bonds are great Hedges against geopolitical risk against financial crisis but they're very bad against inflation we didn't have inflation for 40 years so everyone sort of forgot about that Bond you know bad inflation uh outcome and then suddenly you know after the pandemic it reared its head and when we look forward the next 10 15 20 years people are saying you know what there may be more inflationary episodes do I really want to be in bonds I understand his aggravation it's similar to how I feel we only acknowledge news when it's when it's trying to scare people and when it's bad and then when it's all of a sudden it can just be forgotten in an instance and replaced and as long as whatever the media is covering hedge fund leaders and all this they just they have so many theories out there for both sides and they're just they choose to pick which news is going to support each side and what's going to be relevant what's not going to be relevant and what's baked in what's not baked in and it's um it just depends who you listen to honestly it's why pays to be a long-term investor there's too much of this back and forth all the time and we know stocks are real assets just like real estate are real assets and I think that's one reason why people have shifted so bond yields yes have come up to be sure but that's because they've been damaged as being seen as the ultimate that two year notes over 5.1 right now the 30e oh man creeping up on 5% folks Edge against uh stock risk Professor let me ask you a question maybe I'm just not understanding this if you think that there could be more inflation to come that means that rates would go up even further still and that's been a big issue every time you yields go up on the treasury market Spectrum you watch equities come under pressure um just as people get concerned and again they look to this as being maybe if you think there's more inflation that yields will go even higher that's why bonds are a bad place to be but ultimately that could be bad news for stocks too well I think actually inflation's on its way down right now um but Becky stocks in the long run and I've done all that long run data are excellent longterm Hedges you're planning a 10year port portfolio a 15 20 year retirement portfolio stocks do beautifully against inflation bonds 25y old investor here guys we've got a long time to go let me know let me know how old you are down in the comments guys how many years do you have left do not to invest I guess that was a weird question um so you know yes I think inflation is going down right now but when we look ahead at the deficits and all the rest could there be another inflationary episode and then what do I want to hold do I want to hold real assets or do I want to hold paper assets and on top of that do you want to hold stocks or bonds even let's take it back and just say the safety stocks guys dividends and safety stocks have been crushed so you've been out of the market not getting the gains from the mega caps while now getting crushed just as much if not more it's not making sense anymore everybody's concentrated in the mega caps and they're going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy if you ask me it's just going to keep keep going it's going to be able to weather every storm because it's the best place to put your money anywhere unless these rates keep going up and we keep we we get interest in savings accounts paying 6 7 8% where it's just a no-brainer where we start getting near what the S&P 500 yearly gain is but man I'm hoping it's not going to get that bad and even if it does these stocks have money and they will change and then it might be hard for a couple years but they'll be set up to weather that and it should get easier over those next five or 10 years and then they'll just be set up even better so these are some of the best companies in the world guys I bet on them with my money and I think that's one of the reason why those yields have gone up you're 100% right at least historically that over you know a 10 20 or 30-year period you that is that is the case the question that I'd ask is let's say you're in a different situation and you're looking you're looking at your accounts and the balances matter for the next decade let's just make it a decade what what do you you think then I would still be in stocks you I mean you're talking about 10 10 years um 10 years 10 years is uh you know I you know if I think there's going to be some more you know I mean I think rates are going to come down but maybe three or four years hence there'll be another little episode of you know six seven eight% do I want to be in paper assets do I want to be in real assets don't forget we had 40 years I mean from you know basically 1980 when we came down with after buker all the way until the pandemic where we really didn't have an inflationary episode and that's one reason why bonds kept on going down down down in yield because people said oh yeah they're great Hedges against you know pandemics what anything that you want except inflation people forgot about that they thought the FED would never let inflation go this bad and now they're not as confident about that going into the future 10 years for me is enough time I want to be in real assets I agree Amen to that to the fullest extent I don't own any bonds I'm sure a financial advisor would recommend against that but I don't want one I don't need one right now I'm doing all right AG with you so I I have a hard time arguing and Playing devil's advocate in this joury U but let me tell you about a couple other arguments that have been thrown out just in terms of valuations for right now um there are those who say look out we are at very high valuations given some downturn that's expected to come how much of what you're predicating your thesis on is that we'll have a soft landing and that there's not going to be a big downturn well soft Landing probabilities have definitely increased um uh you know it's interesting uh if we have a recession yeah I think stock prices will go down but one thing has always been true they go down too much in recessions um and they prove to be unbelievable buying opportunities people get really scared and then once that and listen we've gotten out of every recession last 200 years we'll get out of the next one and then we see soaring you've planning a 10-year portfolio I wouldn't worry about a recession if you're a timer and you think there's going to be a recession yeah I'd wait but you have to decide what what what you're gonna play that game or not you know how hard it is to play that game I rather you know concentrate on Long Run and as I said 17 times earnings and that's including the tech extech 15 14 times earnings guys I love that I love what he just said we've been through recessions we've gone through them we will always get through them and we will keep making new highs guys that is what I choose to believe as well and on top of that people get over fearful they get way too scared and they start giving us the best companies in the world for the craziest Bargains out there so if anything you've always got something to list uh look forward to you always always got to keep some powder dry always keep some money coming in and as long as you're properly Diversified guys you welcome a pullback you get those companies you love at a little bit cheaper price for the long run throw them in the filing cabinet and call it a day call yourself rich in 5 to 10 20 years Man 10 years he said he wouldn't worry about it look at the last 10 years even people calling for uh maybe a different 10 years than the last 105 uh I don't think so for the Mega caps I don't think so with AI I think it's going to be a game changer it's going to be a revolution and it's going to be hard to slow down even with all of this uh negativity and um stuff that's against us anyways I hope you guys enjoy the video hit the like button if you did lets me know and uh I will catch you guys in the next one thanks for watching peace
Comments 0