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채널 진행자 Zeb Fields가 Ed Yardeni(Yardeni Research 대표)와 JP모건 자산운용의 Oxana Arofa 인터뷰를 정리한 영상으로, 결론은 미국 경제가 4.5~5%대 장기금리를 견딜 수 있으나 기업 신용위험의 재평가(부실률 상승)가 임박했다는 것이다. 거시경제와 금리: Yardeni는 3분기 GDP가 강해 S&P500 이익이 사상 최고치를 경신할 가능성이 크다고 보며, 소비와 AI 투자, 재정정책 덕분에 경제가 4.5~5% 금리를 견딜 수 있다고 주장했다. 다만 금리가 그 이상으로 크게 오르면 상황이 달라질 수 있다고 덧붙였다. 지정학 리스크: 중동 분쟁은 1973년·1979년과 달리 유가가 크게 오르지 않아 시장 충격이 제한적일 것이라는 전망이다. 2024년 전망은 대체로 양호하다고 봤으나, 장기 강세론자 입장에서도 신규 자금 투입 시점 판단은 어렵다고 말했다. 채권 시장 수급: Arofa는 연준이 5월 이후 25bp만 올렸음에도 장기물 금리가 크게 올랐다고 지적했다. 향후 1년 반 동안 만기 도래 국채가 약 30%이고, 연준의 국채 매각, 중국 등 해외 보유 축소, 1.5조 달러 규모 재정적자가 금리 상방 압력이라는 논리다. 인플레이션이 3%대로 정착하면 장기금리 재평가가 불가피하다고 봤다. 주식·기술주: 빅테크 7개 종목은 향후 10년간 여전히 주도할 것이라고 봤고, 개별 종목으로는 나이키를 저가에 매수한 사례를 들었다. 비교적 중립적 관점이다. 기업 신용: Arofa는 올해 부도율이 이미 상위권이며 신용 스프레드가 부도 가능성을 지나치게 낙관적으로 반영하고 있다고 보았다. 부도 사이클이 진행 중이므로 신용위험 재평가가 크게 일어날 것이라고 경고했다. 투자 전략: 유동성을 확보해 옵션을 보존하고, 은행·상업용 부동산 등 기회가 생기면 공격적으로 접근하라는 권고다. 영상 말미 진행자는 꾸준한 분할 매수를 권했다. 리스크: 금리 추가 상승, 인플레이션 재점화, 기업 부도 확대, 지정학 악화가 주요 하방 요인으로 언급됐다.
다듬은 글
hey guys what's up and welcome back I know it's been a little while since I've uploaded a video but I took a little break and now I'm here back going to make consistent videos so in today we've got a two-piece we've got the economy has proven it can live with 4.5 to 5% bond yields that's a big statement then our second one there will be a very meaningful repricing in corporate credit risk so hope you guys enjoy the video as always I hope everybody's doing all right you know we've got earnings coming up pretty soon starting this week and we've got some big things happening in some other countries that are not so fortunate so as always I hope everybody's doing all right let's jump into to these videos earning season picking up steam this week with more than 50 S&P 500 companies and five doubt components set to report results join us right now is Ed yardeni he's the president of Ard Denny research how are you setting yourself up this morning or maybe even I should have said last week ahead of everything we've already started to hear on Friday well to tell you the truth after hearing that report that you just uh we all just heard from the Middle East uh things look uh just basically horrible over there uh yet you know the the Market's hanging in there pretty well and I think that's because we've had uh several of these uh crisis and uh conflicts between Israel and Hamas that uh led to ceasefires pretty quickly this one looks like it's going to linger and yet the price of oil hasn't really shot up but I'm I'm accentuating the positives here in terms of what the Market's focusing on and and that's as you said it's it's earnings I think it's very likely that when all all the earnings come in that the third quarter is going to be at an all-time record high for S&P 500 earnings which is pretty pretty impressive all in all since uh the gdau recession the the the most widely anticipated recession of all times just has been a noow so far so Ed though man with all this going on the market is up high most of the mega caps are near or at alltime Highs but to think that the S&P is going to be at all-time highs and uh is is just just from this earning season am amidst all of this impact rate hikes that we're still feeling a a big conflict just broke out I mean we've already got enough negatives to go and we're still adding negatives and at this point the Market's still going up is being quite resil resilient so I guess that's where he's coming from for the 4 and a half to 5% which is quite different from the last 13 years think about how do you think about those earnings and I know it's just impossible to put these things together with what's happening in the Middle East and what you think the larger geopolitical implications are and therefore for for the broader market so we could have amazing earnings but it's not even just what's happening now obviously stock prices are looking out call it 12 months 18 months out you know where where are we then and how does do this situation factor in recognizing interestingly at least from the academic studies that I've seen and just you know you look at charts over the years you know with the exception of what was taking place we're at such an inflection point that's that probably the hardest call to make in the last like 10 years where are we going to be in the next 12 to 18 months I mean if the market starts from here and just goes down and down and down and down like it's gone I mean we could be crazy far down and if the market just keeps ignoring everything and we just keep bracing everything and and factoring everything in we could be at all-time high so it's honestly I I can't even guess anymore I have no idea what's going on uh long-term Bulls it's even hard to be a long-term bull when you're trying to put new money to work is is this going to be a good price is this going to be the top who knows anymore in Israel 1973 for the most part uh when there have been problems in the Middle East they have not impacted uh the stock market as negatively as you might imagine they would correct well I think the the the obvious example of when the Middle East really did have a tremendous impact on the global economy and uh certainly on the stock market was back in the 70s when we had two energy shocks in 1973 and that was related to a war between Israel and the Arab states and then in 1979 when uh the Iran revolution occurred uh oil prices soared a lot more than they've increased so far since since the summer and as a result I think the market uh is looking over the next cou months and concluding that this two Shall Pass one way or another the situation will be stabilized and if that's the case then the outlook for 2024 is probably pretty good uh here's the thing you know prior to a week and a half ago where was it a different debate about not whether things putting putting what was happening in Israel aside because it it hadn't happened yet there was just a fundamental debate it's so interesting they just one week they have the entire basket and wagon full of reasons why the economy can't go higher and this is tapped out and we have to start feeling all these rates and every single thing they can think of in a matter of days sometimes hours sometimes weeks it's the entire narrative for every single person that'll be on CNBC is all of a sudden will be positive about whether we were headed towards recession How deep the recession would be and whether frankly 2024 or 2025 actually wasn't that it was going to be positive or stable it was going to be bad I mean that was I think there was a lot of people that were concerned about that sure well look one of these days the recession is going to happen the business cycle hasn't been uh you know forever banned and I I do think that the outlook for now is is pretty good I mean the economy has proven to be remarkably resilient um it's true that we've seen this tremendous increase in short-term rates and the bond yield and yet the consumer continues to spend there's still a lot of fiscal policy stimulus in in the pipelines companies are investing in artificial intelligence and so on and as you know we had a really strong uh GDP during the third quarter which is why earnings are probably going to be at at a record high so I I think the economy has proven that it can actually live with four and a half to 5% bond yields obviously if we go a lot higher than that you know Jamie Diamond of JP and obviously the fed's calling for two to three they're not calling for three yet most people think they're going to have to give up from 2% that they're calling for to three they seem pretty steady at two he said we can make it at four and a half to five we'll see where it shakes out Morgan has been saying you know we these are extremely dangerous times and yet his bank reported tremendous upside surprise earnings in the in the third quarter Hi l Vil all right guys so as you can tell there's always so much news back and forth back and forth um some people people say that we can make it with these higher interest rates we we prove to have been making them so far uh the people the counterargument for why we have made it so far is that it takes longer the FED lags and that it's it takes longer to start feeling these rates and we're in for a bad 2024 because we're just getting to it the other argument is that it's been hdden and we we obviously the stock market the stock market can't be stopped it's factoring in everything and it's factored in that quick and it can't be stopped uh I'm in the I'm in the the first Camp even though I'm a long-term bull I think this stuff takes a little bit longer and the FED lags are starting to catch up uh we'll see I'm praying for a 2024 Happy 24 it doesn't matter to me I'll make money and if it goes down we'll buy at better prices now we're jumping into there will be a meaningful repricing and corporate credit risk says JP Morgans okasa aravan okay she's got a hard name we're just going to hear what she has to say for more on the markets is Oxanna arof who is head of Market strategy and alternative fixed income at JP Morgan asset management and welcome thanks for coming in today thank you um let's talk about the economy and what that means for rates because that has to be driving every decision that you're making for investors right now when it comes to fixed income absolutely and it's really fascinating to me we had you know just a year ago we were pushing 490 on the 10-year we had a Monster job beat we had a couple of week treasury auctions we had a beat on the PPI we had a beat on the CPI and yet we've seen a rally in treasuries while risk sectors like equities like credit risk have actually continued to move up univaded even on the events in the Middle East we're seeing the treasury rally give up some this morning but really this is about the push and pull right between the geopolitical risks and the strength the continued strength of the US economy as well as continued technical challenges to the bond story to the rat story and the fact that there are larger treasury auctions the treasury is trying to find tremendous deficits at a time when the largest sources of demand are stepping back yeah let's talk about that last part first just the massive deficits the treasuries need to get more and more money um bringing more treasuries into into the market I think last week's auction was maybe a little surprising with some of the stuff that went especially with the 30 year um what do you hear from clients do they raise these same questions about concerns about hey what's going on with the deficits and do we really want to be buyers at these levels or we'll hold out for higher I think def before what she has to say I will give my opinion I will say I've been as a as somebody who's trying to be a buyer of some of the mega caps it is incredibly difficult is are it you can't just take into consider PE ratios or earnings or what's going to happen you have to take in so much more into consideration and we're in between these levels to where we can still fall back to the lows that we've had in 22 and we can still fall and we can still very much get way past the highs so it's a it's kind of a crazy Market you have to if you're going to get in you have to be able to risk a a pretty meaningful percentage and um but the other risk is that you can get in or the other options are that you can get into stocks that have been beaten down I recently bought some Nike at $90 a share $90 a share go look at the stock price of Nike look how I made out and how that's going to be over there the next few years so there are um opportunities in this market you do have to find them I do think the mega cap 7 are still going to LEAP they will still lead for the next 10 years in my opinion so we might have to start paying up a little bit more as far as PE ratio goes let's see definitely those questions are coming through they're coming through in the fact that that long end of the curve has been pushed up so significantly the FED is only raised 25 base points since May and yet we've seen this tremendous push up in the long end of the curve so finally right the bond market is noticing the sort of financial underpinnings um the fact that of course the FED has not been able to get Services inflation under control and now we're possibly seeing a reigniting of inflation because of you know oil and some Commodities some other pressures um so we'll see how that plays out but certainly the technical picture is an important one we have you know something like uh 30% of outstanding treasuries maturing over the next year and a half you have the FED selling a trillion of treasuries you have the largest um foreign buyers you know China has been lightning their treasury load by about 300 billion a year since 2021 you have banks that are not net consumers of China and I think if I'm not mistaken a couple other places have been offloading their their um US debt at a a record pace which is not not before seen treasuries right and all of this is happening as the treasury is trying to finance a trillion and a half of deficit spending so and when you kind of pick up your eyes and look out over the horizon right um in terms of secular Trends we're likely going to continue to see more pressures U with respect to inflation because whether you look at demographics whether you look at some of the green energy initiatives right all of those things the populace Trend generally um globally all of those things are inflationary in the long term at least there's got to be a floor that's underneath um treasuries when it comes to the yields on some of these issues Lee cooperman told us last week at a CNBC conference that he wouldn't be touching the longer term bonds below five five and a half% because he just thinks the trend is only up from here um it makes a lot of sense because historically the 10e has really been um the sum of growth inflation and a long-term premium of some sort and when we just simply look at growth and inflation right that should bring us over 5% and we're not there and I've been saying that look the 10year is still even at some of its peak levels a couple weeks ago is still very very much priced for a 2% inflation world and if inflation does settle closer to 3% um then that will absolutely mean a repricing at that end of so is that where Jamie Diamond gets some of the comments he makes about this where he thinks look not that we're necessarily headed to 7% but it wouldn't shock him I businesses should be prepared for I think we're in agreement with that statement yeah you know I certainly can't speak for Jamie but I think generally we're in agreement that technical pressures longer term secular pressure pressures with respect to inflation and the fact that I think the FED is just generally you know I think JP is generally content to sort of demolish this really unhealthy relationship between asset prices right and fed policy and I think um investors waiting for the FED punch bowl to come back in the event of a Slowdown will be wholly disappointed so that's true anybody out there waiting for some more stemi checks go ahead and let your breath out because uh you're not getting anymore not to mention that so we have one person saying we're going to have a great 2024 we're taking in all this at face value and we've already priced it in we have the other one giving pure examples and trillions of dollars that have to move around towards against us especially a stock market holders um we have people still calling for seven to I think somebody called for like as high as 133% yield rates or something just astronomical and um it's going to break the system guys so hopefully 5% ends up being a big number because if we start getting to numbers that make 5% look small we are in trouble everywhere the Hulk economy and the stocks unless we see the economy in some kind of a freef fall yes central banks will probably get re-involved but a garden variety slowdown is not going to they're not coming to the resue so what do you tell investors to do right now how that's completely changed the Paradigm of what we've gotten used to in the last 15 years or so absolutely um so what we've been saying is that the next 10 years are going to be nothing like the last 10 there's going to be a lot more volatility to bonds we're seeing it in the move index which is settling where we used to live preg GFC it feels like Bond volatility is elevated but really it is exactly where it used to live before the great financial crisis and so we're saying look you have to preserve optionality in the form of liquidity because it is paying you but you absolutely have to attack opportunities as they arise whether they're related to the banking sector earlier this year whether they're related to commercial real estate as this year continues to move along and one area where we think there'll be a very meaningful repricing is corporate credit risk right we saw the ray default this morning even before that this year was already in the top you know five six years of defaults and we're still you know three months away roughly it's not pricing it in yet absolutely not uh credit spreads are wildly optimistic about the default Prospect we've tripled defaults since the start of the Year albeit from very very low levels but the default cycle is underway and we're going to continue to hear that drum beat so there's going to be some really interesting opportunities to get involved and right now you can sort of clip that coupon at the front end of the curve but certainly there are things to do for so she's calling for look just get your money right go ahead and start building up a pile of money you don't even need to start buying right now you are almost guaranteed to get lower prices is what this lady is saying that sounds very scary you couple that with I know what the last 10 years look like and and these next 10 are not going to be anything like that that is quite the statement and I'm sure she has more than enough info to back it up the economy is in a very very tricky state right now and um we've been through things that are just as tricky we've been through things that are even harder we will see if America will persevere again I bet that they do and I bet we get better prices the best thing I think we can do is just keep putting money in in a consistent basis guys as always I hope you enjoyed the video video if you did hit the like button thanks for being subscribed and I will catch you in the next one guys I'm here back no more break love you
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