저자: NewMoney진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 2025년 1분기 13F에서 보유 주식 대부분을 매도하고 중국 기술주(알리바바, JD, 핀둬둬, BIDU 등)와 엔비디아, 트립닷컴에 풋옵션을 매수해 약세 베팅을 했다. 포트폴리오는 7700만 달러에서 1300만 달러로 줄었고 이스티로더만 남겼다. 진행자는 관세 전쟁이 배경이라고 해석하며, 이스티로더는 82% 하락한 저평가 반등 베팅일 수 있으나 작은 호재에도 버리가 빠질 것으로 봤다. 13F는 45일 지연 공개라 참고 가치가 낮다는 결론이다.
다듬은 글
Dr. Michael Bur. Yes, you probably know him as Christian Bale's character in The Big Short, but Mr. Barry has been arguably one of the most interesting value investors to follow over the past 5 years or so. from his original call on the housing market back in 2008 to more recently investing in GameStop before it went vertical, backing the Chinese tech stocks before this happened, and let's not forget his incredibly accurate call predicting a massive wave of postcoid inflation in America, back when the inflation rate was barely 2%.
The guy has been extremely interesting to follow, but over the past 2 years, it's been radio silence. He's shut down his Twitter. He doesn't do interviews and it's left us with only one way of following what he's up to. His 13F filings, the quarterly portfolio updates that all the big investors have to file.
Well, just last week, Barry released his updated 13F filing for Q1 of 2025. And in it were some very unexpected moves. Michael Bur has sold all but one of his stocks. But it doesn't stop there. He has also opened up put option positions betting against the very stocks he held just one quarter before.
How's that for a complete 180? So let's go through everything Michael Barry did in his latest 13F filing and what we can take away from it going forward. So firstly, what happened? Well, if we look to the 13F filing for the end of last year, Barry, you know, he had a healthy portfolio worth $77 million.
In it, he held 13 positions with some of the largest positions being the Chinese tech stocks Alibaba, BU, JD, Pingjo, Duo. And these companies had featured consistently over approximately 2 years, convincing many, including myself, that this was a long-term bet on the broader Chinese recovery. These were good companies merely beaten down by China's general economic situation.
So, holding them long-term looked favorable as the country recovered. But turning to the most recent 13F filing for Q1205, we can see a very drastic change. His portfolio has dropped from 77 million to just 13 million as he quite literally sold every single company bar Estee Lauder. The rest gone. Alibaba, JD, BU, all of them gone.
So Barry has turned incredibly bearish in the space of just 3 months, not really wanting to hold anything at the current time. But this is where the plot really thickens because if we turn to Barry's options bets, we can see that he's also bought put options that are active bets. So he's actively betting against the four Chinese tech stocks that he was betting on not 3 months earlier.
He opened up put option positions against Alibaba, JD, Pingjo, and BU, as well as other companies such as Nvidia and Trip.com. So it's not as though he's exiting the market because he's just wary of the recent turbulence. He's actively betting against these six companies, four of which are the Chinese tech companies he was betting for just 3 months earlier.
But the question is why? How on earth has Barry had such a rapid change in sentiment in such a short period of time? Well, I wonder what happened across the three months that were January, February, and March. Ah, yeah, that's right. Trump launched a massive trade war with China. As we know, after Liberation Day, Donald Trump announced blanket style tariffs of up to 67% on a wide range of imports.
Then China hit back with their tariffs on US goods, reaching 125%. And the US hit back again, raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. Now, while the recent news is that this is all on a 90-day pause, for Barry, who had been long on Chinese tech companies, this obviously changed the game. These were no longer just normal stocks anymore.
They were caught right in the middle of a political firefight. Tariffs, as we know, can hurt consumer demand, squeeze margins, and trigger a wave of regulatory headaches. And then add to that the ongoing risk of USD listing threats and capital controls and negative sentiment towards Chinese equities in the west.
And suddenly, you know, the upside case for these businesses doesn't look as compelling. In fact, if you were bearish on global trade or worried about geopolitical escalation, you know, the Chinese tech stocks might be the first place you'd short. And judging by these put options, it looks like that's exactly how Barry sees it.
So, it's kind of weird. I don't actually think Barry sees these stocks as bad businesses. Like, not in the slightest. I don't think his conclusion on these Chinese tech businesses would be any different than 3 months ago. He just sees the geopolitical landscape changing and that's enough for him to not only exit these stocks but to actively bet that their share prices will fall.
And well, so far this is likely a pretty good bet by Barry. I mean, it's difficult to know because we don't know the strike prices, but assuming he bought these put options in March, which would have lined up with when Donald Trump was really hyping up his tariffs. And assuming that, he would have most likely made money on the Alibaba puts, the JD puts, the Pingjo puts, and the BU puts.
That's also assuming that he probably sold at some period shortly after the Liberation Day carnage, which I assume he likely would have considering his tendency to take short-term profits when they're on offer. Of course, I don't know that for certain. There's unfortunately no way of knowing Barry's exact moves as we just get these updates once every 3 months and we don't even know the strikes, but that's my best guess.
So, overall, like pretty crazy news. Barry not only getting out of the market but actively betting against it. And as I said, beyond the put option contracts against the Chinese tech stocks, he also bet against a very high-flying stock in Nvidia, which on paper seems smart with the company at a PE ratio of 46.
But man, I don't know if I could bet against that stock, seeing that both the impressive business performance over the past few years, like that's undeniable. They have done very, very well. But then you combine that with also the hype we've seen in a stock. I mean, he's brave. He is very brave. I mean, he was betting against Tesla at the height of their hype, but personally, I don't think I could.
So, Nvidia was another company he bought puts against. And then the last company he holds put options against is Trip.com, which you may not know is another Chinese business. Yes, they do have global operations, but they are headquartered in Shanghai, and they trade on both the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.
So I feel like this put option position probably again ties into that trade war narrative I was just talking about before. So overall that's the big news of what Michael Barry has done over the last 3 months. But the next thing I wanted to talk about is the one stock that remains and that stock is Estee Lauder the lipstick index hypothesis.
For those that don't know that was actually a term coined by Estee Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder during the early 2000s recession. refers to the idea that during economic downturns, consumers tend to treat themselves to small affordable luxuries like lipstick instead of big ticket items. They still want to indulge, but they're priced out of big indulgences.
So, smaller indulgences become increasingly popular. Now, this could be a part of Bur's thesis. However, I personally don't put too much stock in that. And the reason is the company's been sucking. It's been really bad. Revenue has been trending down. The net income has been trending down into the negatives.
And one of the main reasons for this has been weakened demand in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly China, and also disruptions in travel retail channels, which is duty-free airport stores, cruise ships, international train stations, that kind of thing. Now, to combat these headwinds, the company has launched a broad restructuring effort that includes cutting up to 7,000 jobs as a part of a multi-year cost-saving initiative.
Management has also rolled out a profit recovery plan aiming to boost operating profit by 1.4 4 billion by 2026. Leadership is also changing with their longtime CEO stepping down and a new CEO coming and taking the reigns. But honestly, if you ask me, I really don't think Michael Bur is looking too far into this.
I think he is much more interested in looking at this. Yes, after its truly massive selloff, Estee Lauder is now trading at levels not seen in nearly a decade. The company is now down 82% from its highs at the end of 2021. And knowing what Barry is like, ever the contrarian, I think he smells a classic value play for a company with a portfolio of powerful global brands like Mac, La Mer, Clinique, and of course, Estee Lauder.
This could represent almost a cigar butt style opportunity where company has been beaten down so much that Barry is really just looking for that one last profitable puff. Barry is of course very well known to pounce when the market overreacts to short-term problems. Now, I personally don't know Estee Lauder or the makeup business well enough to be able to determine whether this is a short-term problem or whether it's something fundamentally problematic, but at least from Barry's bet, it seems as though he's thinking that with a turnaround plan in motion and new management, Estee Lauder might be one of those companies that for him has a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
But with that said, I do just want to be clear. Should Estee Lauder show even a slight stock price bump, it would not surprise me in the slightest to see this one just gone from the Scion portfolio in the next 13F. From looking at Bur's 13Fs for a long time now. I think what he's hoping for is just a shred of positive news and for investors to start even believing in a turnaround, at which case he'll just bounce out of the stock and take his profits.
So to be clear, I don't think he's actually going to stick around for the full turnaround story should that eventuate. And that's really the last thing to discuss when we look at Michael Bur's 138 filings. And that is, you know, how much you as an investor can really learn from them. And I've said this before and I'll say it again.
I really don't think there's too much that we can actually take away from them. I mean, you guys love to see these Michael Bur updates, so I'm happy to keep making them. But at the end of the day, we really need to remember two things. The first is that Michael Bur has proven time and time again that while he still thinks like a Buffett style value investor, he acts like a short-term trader.
And the other thing we need to remember is that the 13F filings are only released to the public 45 days after the end of the quarter. So all the information we're getting now is old news. Now, those two things, that is not a great combination for us long-term investors to be able to get anything valuable out of his 13F.
It works for investors like Buffett because if you see a big new position pop up in his portfolio, it's likely that the stock will stay in the Berkshire portfolio for many years to come. Apple for example, back in 2016. But for Barry, unfortunately, the same just isn't true because we're looking back in time by 45 days.
The truth is Michael Barry has probably already closed out these short positions. He's probably already gotten rid of his put options. And with the market no longer heading south and trade tensions cooling between the US and China, at least for now, he might have already done another 180 on the Chinese tech stocks.
Again, betting on their longerterm prosperity. After all, I really don't think he believes these companies are bad businesses. And he was long on these companies for about the last 2 years. So, who knows? And that's really what you need to remember when you're looking at the 13F filing of Michael Bur.
But overall, still crazy news nonetheless that Michael Bur, at least for a quarter, sold basically his whole portfolio and completely pivoted. But with that said, please leave a like on the video if you enjoy these 13F updates. You guys seem to like them, and if you guys like them, I'm happy to keep making them.
And let me know down in the comments whether Michael Barry is an investor that you like to follow. Do you look at what he's up to? Do you not care at all? I'd love to hear from you guys. But with that said, thanks very much for watching and I'll talk to you guys in the next video.
Comments 0