저자: 미상 · 외국인
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버핏의 2026년 투자 조언을 정리한 영상. AI 버블과 Magnificent 7 집중, S&P500 CAPE 약 40로 역사적 고평가 경고. 소형주(러셀2000) 등 기회는 존재. 버크셔의 현금 3770억 달러 보유는 적절한 투자처 부족 때문이며 폭락 대비가 아니라고 해석. 지정학 리스크(대만, 관세, 연준 금리 인하)로 조정 가능성 언급. 장기적으로 주가 하락 시 버핏은 순매수자로서 낮은 가격을 선호한다는 취지. 말미에 무료 3일 워크숍 홍보.
다듬은 글
The world makes big big big mistakes and surprises happen in dramatic ways and the more sophisticated the system gets the more this surprises can be out of right field. In 2026, investors face some very complicated market conditions from heavily overvalued stock markets and an AI frenzy to an economy that's starting to falter and a world that's becoming more geopolitically complex and tense than ever before.
And with all of that happening now at the ripe old age of 95, Warren Buffett, our go-to source of wisdom and advice, is going quiet. But before he does, in this video, as Warren is cleaning out his office to hand the Berkshire Keys over to Greg Ael, I want to go through exactly what Buffett has been saying about these three or four big issues we're facing in the year ahead and what we as investors can take away from it.
Also, very quickly before we get started, I am excited to announce that back by popular demand, the 3-day live investing workshop I hosted with Phil Town in Atlanta is returning in March 2026. Now, the ticket is totally free, but we are limited to 300 people. So, if you want in, you can secure your ticket right now by following the link in the description and stay tuned to the end of the video for more information.
The AI bubble. It's no secret that in 2026, we are staring right down the barrel of a potential tech bubble 2.0. The Magnificent 7 companies are roaring ahead and have accounted for 3/4 of the S&P 500's returns since this bull run began in October 20122. Now, that in itself is no big issue. The problem is investors are making very big bets on these AI companies, stretching their valuations.
Meanwhile, the technology itself is still very immature and the future totally unknown. AI is profound. That's what makes it a genie. The problem is I really don't know anything about AI. Now, while Buffett is cracking a joke in that clip, he's actually raising an important point. The truth is that AI generally is so in its infancy that investors simply do not know how it's going to pan out.
It's a guess. We don't know what the best use cases are or which companies will come out on top. In fact, these seven large companies that everyone's betting on. They don't even know either. The story of the past few years has simply been invest now and figure it out later. Just don't be the guy caught in last place having to play catchup with the others.
And this has led to enormous spending. Take Microsoft for example. Last quarter they spent a record $35 billion with plenty [snorts] more to come. Now, investors are going along for the ride at the time being. In fact, they're even willing to pay up for these businesses, but what these PE values tell you is that everybody expects growth and lots of it.
And if investors don't get it, you can expect these stocks to be pretty severely rerated even in the next 12 months, which could bring down the entire market. But interestingly, this doesn't worry Buffett in the slightest. If anything, it gets him excited. Take this clip from a couple years ago that perfectly captures Buffett's thinking on the AI stocks.
Given the rise of disruptive technologies and AI being one of them, how do you envision the future of value investing in this new era? I would argue that there's going to be plenty of opportunities and part of the reason there are going to be plenty of opportunities. The tech doesn't make any difference or any of that.
I mean, new things coming along don't take away the opportunities. What gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things. Well, the 58 years we've been running Bergkshire, I would say there's been a great increase in the number of people doing dumb things and they do big dumb things. And the reason they do it to some extent is because they can get money from other people so much easier than when we started.
And this is exactly what we've seen in the last few years. Any business with AI in the prospectus has been able to raise loads of money very easily and are eyewatering valuations. Established companies have pivoted and sold the dream to their investors. But eventually there's a reckoning. Believe it or not, this is actually something Warren Buffett wrote about not in 2025, but back in 1999 at the height of the tech bubble.
Now, in that moment, people were bidding internet companies up to the moon on the promise of this new technology. And at the time Buffett wrote in Fortune magazine that in fact he was avoiding the internet companies altogether in favor of established companies with wide moes that he knew something about.
He said back then that the key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society or how much it will grow but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and above all the durability of that advantage. While investors were salivating over companies that ultimately crashed and burned in the dotcom crash, you know, Web Van, Bu.com, Pets.com, etc., Buffett was sticking to wide moat businesses like Coca-Cola and American Express, companies he still holds to this day thanks to their enduring modes.
Speculation in stock markets. The AI bubble is just one example of a common trend we've seen building up over the past 5 years, and that is increasing speculation in stock markets. The trend of low interest rates combined with the increased accessibility to stock markets and options trading from apps like Robin Hood have led to unfortunately the casinoification of financial markets.
And that's a big driver behind their current overvaluation. For example, the S&P 500 is currently showing a cycllically adjusted PE ratio of around 40. Now, in no world does it make rational sense to pay 40 times the S&P 500's average earnings just to own it. The historical average is around 17, aka investors would be willing to pay 17 times the average yearly earnings of these businesses to own them.
But to sign up to 40 years of current performance to make your money back, it's a price that investors have only been willing to pay at two times in history. The last was in 1999. And this has become a real problem for value investors around the world in recent years and will likely plague us again in 2026.
In one of Buffett's recent annual letters, he noted, "In the years ahead, we hope to move much of our excess liquidity into businesses that Berkshire will permanently own, but the immediate prospects for that, however, are not good. Prices are sky-high for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects." Warren's longtime business partner, Charlie Mer, who sadly passed away in 2023, put it a little bit more bluntly.
My advice to value investors is to get used to making less. But ever the optimist in Buffett's recent retirement letter released just a few months ago, he noted, quote, "Because of Burkshire's size and because of market levels, ideas are few but not zero." And this is something Buffett has always spoken about.
Sure, if you're Burkshire and you're confined to only the largest of large companies, or if you choose to only look at the seven companies you hear about on CNBC every morning, then yeah, okay, chances are you're not going to find much. But look beyond those companies and pockets of opportunity are still there even in a world of massive speculation.
Have a look at this. This is the S&P 500 over the past 5 years. What do you notice? It's up 80 odd% up and to the right. But now have a look at this index here. This is the Russell 2000 over the past 5 years. As you can see, a much different story. Now, the Russell 2000 index tracks the smallest 2000 companies out of the Russell 3000, which is an index comprising the 3,000 largest companies in America, which covers around 98% of all listed companies in the US.
This is pretty telling and it shows us that once you turn off CNBC and instead look deeper to these smaller, less followed companies, the ones that the big money managers gloss over because, you know, they're trying to sink billions of dollars into the market at any given time. Well, if you look at the small ones, all of a sudden, there's a lot more going on that we could potentially sink our teeth into.
And this is one benefit of modern markets being so enormous, there's always opportunities out there somewhere. And it's this very reason why Warren Buffett says that if he had to start again with a small sum of money, he would still be able to generate much bigger returns than even what he does today.
Investing has disappeared so much from this huge capitalistic market that anybody can [clears throat] play in. The big money is in selling other people ideas that isn't outperforming. But if you're running small amounts of money, I think the opportunities will be greater. So Buffett's message is certainly to keep our heads up and keep on looking as opportunities could be just around the corner.
And that leads us to the next topic we need to discuss. Preparing for a crash. Over the past few years, Berkshire Hathaway has been growing their cash pile to record levels. And this has got many questioning whether the Oracle of Omaha is seeing a big economic downturn just around the corner. Burkshire currently holds around $377 billion in cash and short-term US treasuries on their balance sheet.
And to give you an idea of how that's grown, five years ago, that number sat at just 142 billion. But what's interesting is that this increase in cash has largely been from selling down the Berkshire portfolio over the past few years, particularly lowering their stake in one of the Magnificent 7 companies, Apple.
Yes, selling down their portfolio in favor of short-term US treasuries. Three years ago, Burkshire's portfolio sat as high as $363 billion, but today they've reduced it by roughly a hundred billion. Now, maybe it's just prudent investing, selling high, but interestingly, Buffett has been changing his language slightly over the past few years.
And it's these next couple of quotes that's really got the value investing community wondering if Buffett sees something coming. Things aren't attractive, and there's certain ways that can change, and we'll see whether they do. But I don't mind at all under current conditions building the cash position.
When I look at the alternative of what's available in the equity markets and I look at the composition of what's going on in the world, we find it quite attractive. So what's the deal? Is Buffett holding out for some sort of market correction or a crash? Well, not exactly. It seems as though his moves are just consistent with his strategy.
For example, he bought into Apple when it had a PE ratio of about 16. But today, that number sits up at 36. Now, that PE value is demanding a lot from that business over the next few years. So, it makes sense for Buffett to take some of those enormous profits. But seriously, 377 billion on the sidelines seems unnecessary, and it is.
But this is more the result of Buffett not being able to find opportunities at the current time rather than selling down in preparation for a crash. One, what is Buffett waiting for? And two, why not at least deploy some of it? We only swing a pitches we like and I don't think anybody sitting at this table has any idea of how to use it effectively and therefore we don't use it now at 5.4% but we wouldn't use it if it was at 1%.
Don't tell um the Federal Reserve that. But having said that, there is a very real possibility of some market turbulence in 2026 due to, as Warren Buffett notes, the state of the world at the current time. We've got the Fed having to lower rates due to poor jobs data. The Russia Ukraine conflict continues, as does conflict in the Middle East.
Delobalization is occurring around the world, and China is preparing to potentially go to war with Taiwan. There's a lot of potential catalysts that could trigger a correction in an already stretched stock market. And that leads Buffett to give us this sage advice. Certainly in the next 20 years, you'll see a period that we'll be in what somebody in the market described one time as a hair curler compared to anything you've seen before.
I mean, it just happens periodically. The world makes big big big mistakes and surprises happen in dramatic ways and the more sophisticated the system gets, the more the surprises can be out of right field. That's part of the stock market and that's what makes it a good place to focus your efforts if you got the proper temperament for it and a terrible place to get involved if you get frightened by markets that decline and get excited when stock markets go up.
I don't mean to sound particularly critical. I mean I know and people have emotions but you got to check them at the door when you invest. And that was probably the biggest takeaway that I got from sitting in the audience listening to Buffett talk about this back in May. He didn't shy away from saying that yes, there's a lot of potential catalyst that could negatively affect the stock market.
And yes, the AI craze, it's really stretching valuations, but the best thing to do is just stay rational and focus on what you can control. Just stick to bottom up investing in areas that aren't being overrun with stock market speculators. Either that or simply exercise your patience because remember Buffett's philosophy, you're not trying to pick a company to invest in every 6 months.
Really, the big money is made when you wait patiently for the perfect pitch and then when you get it, you swing hard. And this always happens in speculative mania, right? People look at Buffett and they say, "Come on, swing already." And then they conclude that value investing is probably dead. Quite the opposite.
Value investing just keeps us safe. Remember Buffett's first rule of investing is don't lose money. But then on the flip side, what happens if the AI bubble does deflate in 2026? What if China starts a war with Taiwan and the semiconductors dry up? What if trade policy sends the American economy into a tail spin?
Well, remember this. There's been three times since we acquired Bergkshire that Bergkshire has gone down 50% in a fairly short period of time. Three different times. Nothing was fundamentally wrong with the company at any time. But the Dow Jones average 381 in September of 1929. It got down to 42. So that's by going from 100 to 11.
If it makes a difference to you whether your stocks are down 15% or not, you need to get a somewhat different investment philosophy because the world is not going to adapt to you. You're going to have to adapt to the world. If the market tanks, so be it. As a net buyer of stocks over the next 40 years, I want prices to be as low as possible.
As Warren Buffett noted in his retirement letter, our stock price will move capricciously, occasionally falling 50% or so, as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. But don't despair. America will come back and so will Berkshire shares. So with that said, that is some Buffett wisdom applied to our 2026 investing situation.
Hope you enjoyed. Now, one thing I do just want to talk about before we end the video is that backed by popular demand, I will be co-hosting a 3-day investing workshop in Peach Tree City, just outside Atlanta with none other than Phil Town himself. That will be happening March 6 to 8, 2026. We're doing it again.
So, for those that missed the first one, this is a full 3 days where you'll learn the entire rule one Warren Buffett strategy. And we're also going to go deep on using options safely to generate cash flow as a value investor. Once you understand that, it is super eye opening. Now, the best bit, the ticket is free.
You do not have to pay a scent to attend. You do just have to get yourself there and have a place to stay. However, this event is strictly limited to 300, which is the capacity for the venue. So, if you would like to come, please get in now, secure your ticket, and start to arrange those travel plans.
The link to sign up is now live in the description and the pin comments. So, please check it out. And I want to beat the emails this time. Last time I got a lot of emails from people that were naturally hesitant that with this being a free event, they were worried that they were just going to just be marketed to, I guess, for 3 days.
Now, I want to assure you guys that is not the case. There is no selling. It is simply teaching. And if you're still unsure, I actually asked one of the attendees from the September workshop. his name's Andrew to write up his experience because he too was someone who was a little bit skeptical, a little bit hesitant before signing up to the September workshop.
So, I'll put that up on the screen right now. Feel free to pause the video right now if you would like to read through it. But honestly, if you want to come along, just do it. The the community of people and coaches is really really awesome. going to Phil's horse farm for a barbecue, meeting everyone, hanging out.
It's really, really fun. So, if you're into Buffett style investing, sign up. Use the link in the description or the pin comment, and I hope to see you there. I'm there for the full 3 days, so plenty of opportunities to come hang out, chat, and generally have a good time. All right, with that said, thanks very much for watching, and I hope to see you in the next video.
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