저자: Ryan · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 단기 조정 중이나 여름 계절성은 강세로 봄. 다음 주 FOMC(Warsh)와 엔비디아 실적이 변동성 요인이며, CME Fed Watch상 금리 인상 확률이 올라 2021년 말과 유사한 경고 신호로 해석. 다만 약세장 진입 가능성은 낮다고 보고 이란 전쟁·유가 안정 시 금리 인하로 전환 가능성 언급. VIX 18 기준 현금 22%로 관망하며 VIX 20 이상에서 현금 투입 계획. WDC, LRCX, GLW, COHR, CLS는 볼린저 중간선·50일선 근처 조정 시 LEAPS 콜 진입 대기, 로빈후드는 계절성 근거로 90 상회 기대, 팔란티어는 129~130 지지 확인 후 반등 기대.
다듬은 글
The market is seeing a little bit of a pullback here, but I want to go over some more concerning news in the short-term here. I'm also going to go over some stocks that I think will continue to see strength throughout the summer. here, you could see that this right here is my public account I show here on YouTube.
If you do want to follow me on my eight-figure journey in the next 6 to 7 years, mak woul ahead and dive into the realized gain loss for transparency. As you can see here, we are about halfway through the month and this right here is my total profits, which is well on track to hit my goals for the current year.
We're up about this much. Obviously, results vary month to month, year to year. here at 40% year-over-year for the past 5 15 clients in here all sharing their inspiration. As you can see, this client right here, we had another client hit a a bigger milestone in their portfolio here and the list goes on and on.
Obviously, results vary based off account size and risk tolerance, but if you do want to access to my Ryan's trades . I also do nd show a little bit of my personal life, as well as , make sure to be subscribed. Now, let's go ahead and dive straight into it, okay? Next week, we have the first FOMC meeting with Kevin Warsh.
I think that's going to be a big one for the markets. I do believe Nvidia earnings are next week as well. So, it might be a volatile week and we're already seeing a little bit of volatility here on Friday. As I'm filming this, by the time you're watching this, it might be Saturday or Sunday. But, let's take a look at the CME Fed Watch tool because this is a little bit more concerning.
So, this is the first time that I've seen it since 2021 where we are pricing in not only one rate hike, you know, with 55% odds or higher, that is why the boxes are blue here, but we're seeing a second rate hike probability starting to build, okay? This is a little bit concerning for me because back in 2021, in October of 2021, the CME Fed Watch tool was pricing in multiple rate hikes as well for 2022.
And what followed that, what preceded that, was, you know, the 2022 bear market. So, I'm definitely keeping a closer eye on this. I do not think that we're going to head into a bear market or even get that second rate hike. I do believe that the market is pricing in a transitory kind of, you know, transitory inflation because of the oil prices.
The quicker we could end the Iran war situation and oil prices falling, I think that, you know, the odds will quickly shift as we saw it when Trump announced that, hey, you know, potentially there is a deal with the Iran. We saw these odds shift from, you know, a rate hike being priced in to a rate cut being priced in for the end of next year.
So, I'd like to see some more progression here, but just, you know, with this being said, okay, I'm definitely cashing up a bit more and I'm following my VIX cash allocation levels, which I'll go over in just a moment. But, in the short term, I do believe that there will be some continued strength in the market here.
We do see on Market Tide a lot of hedging going on today. A lot of put buying on MU, Tesla, Nvidia, SPY, AMD, Amazon. And we also see some call buying by institutions going on. Microsoft, Apple, SMH, Now, and even Palantir. Very interesting to see Palantir's even green on the day. So, in the short term here, you know, historically, seasonality-wise, summer tends to be very very good months for the overall market and a lot of our stocks.
So, with that being said, let's dive into the S&P 500. Okay, we're finally getting a little cool off period here. And according to market maker expectations, in the next 2 weeks, we could see SPY go all the way up to 759, or potentially down here to 723. Now, I don't think we're going to go all the way down to 723, but we could bounce off this mid-Bollinger Band line, which is the 20-day moving average.
I think that would be a nice healthy pullback to, you know, for a dip-buy entry, okay? And from all-time highs, that would be about, you know, a 3.3% pullback. So, pretty sizable, but I think that it would be healthy for the markets. Now, if we don't get that, which is probably most likely what's going to happen, we're probably going to get some consolidation, some digestion here, where the market trades a little sideways, and some of that profit-taking goes on in some of our favorite AI infrastructure plays, and it goes into beat-up names like Palantir, SoFi, Robinhood, some of the software sector, some of the even the energy sector getting some rotation.
As we see Palantir is currently one of the only stocks that's green on the day. So, that's what I expect here, but just be mindful of this range. I do think, you know, a pullback all the way down to 723 would not surprise me, given that we just had a bearish crossover on the RSI, and MACD looks like it wants to crossover bearish as well in the short term, okay?
So, that's that. Let's go over the VIX levels. We are currently at VIX 18. We saw a bump up to 1924 today. Uh and it looks like we are starting to potentially climb higher here on the VIX. So, if we could get that pullback and we get a VIX back above 20, that's going to be a good area to deploy cash.
So, right now I'm following my VIX cash allocation levels. As you could see, we are trading between VIX 15 and 20, slight fear in the market. So, right now I have about 22% cash, which is right within my range, okay? I was definitely playing it more aggressive earlier this week and last week, but as of right now, I kind of want to stick to these levels cuz I do think we could get a little pullback here in the markets.
So, you know, sticking to these levels has helped me as an option seller uh you know, through bear markets, pullbacks, black swan events, recessions, what have you. Um it's helped me be able to participate and generate premiums even if we do have these big market pullbacks or corrections. So, um you know, freeing up a little cash to hopefully deploy on a nice pullback.
Now, let's go ahead and dive into the stocks that I am looking at for actually leaps plays. So, we did some CLS leaps, Celestica leaps earlier this week. We got out of those at a nice 8% um gain, but WDC is one that's really attractive to me. If we could get this down to near the mid Bollinger Band line, around this 442 area, that's where I'm going to be eyeing to enter some leaps call options, okay?
Um this thing has not pulled back in quite some time. It's been, you know, at least a month or two before we we actually saw a decent-sized pullback. So, uh I think it's due for WDC and that would be a great entry given that you know, it's a quality stock, low PE ratio 28, and we're seeing a bearish crossover on the MACD.
So, that's one I'm looking at. A Lam Research, another great one. Today would have been a good entry down here at 276, but if we could see some further downside maybe below this mid Bollinger band line some more in the 260s, I would be eyeing that area for me for a leaps entry. Um GLW is going to be another one.
If we could hit mid Bollinger band like around this 176 area, I'm down to grab some leaps here. This has been a solid stock and these are all, you know, Nvidia partner stock. So, um in the AI infrastructure space, so I'm definitely looking at GLW. Um I actually closed out some cash secured puts today.
If we take a look at my current uh portfolio, . You can see that um you know, if we take a look at my GLW position, I scaled down a little bit. I have 128k in cash secured puts at the 165 155 level. I closed out my 172 and a half's just to kind of free up some capital. Those expired next month. Um and you know, hopefully get a decent entry on some cash secured puts as well.
So, we'll see if next week we could get a pullback all the way down here to this mid Bollinger band line. That's going to be uh my third stock I'm looking for a leaps on a leaps call option. COHR is going to be another one where I'm looking for some call options, some leaps call options which I go out 365 days or more, buy a 70 delta leaps, and I'm looking at again that mid Bollinger band line which would be 345.
COHR I think has the most potential upside in the portfolio given it's a higher risk play, 185 PE, but it's in a very high growth subsector of the AI infrastructure play, right? Uh switching over from copper wires to uh lasers and photonics to transmit the data uh with the GPUs. So, that's huge, right?
COHR definitely one of my favorites. New adds to the portfolio this year. And then, of course, Celestica, right? So, Celestica, I'm down to get back into some leaps. I'm glad I got out of those ones yesterday uh because we pulled back again down here to the lower Bollinger Band. Now, I do think that Celestica has a bit more downside to go.
Um bearish, you know, bearish on the RSI, bearish on the MACD. I think that a reasonable level would be down here somewhere between uh 340 and 350, okay? So, I think that the 50-day moving average here at 338, which, you know, on Monday will probably be upwards of 340. I think that's a solid support level to grab some leaps right here and ride it back up for a nice bounce.
This stock has been wonderful in the portfolio. You could see beautiful upward trending chart and it has really nice, you know, consolidation periods and pullback periods versus just going straight up like Western Digital. This stock has some movement that allows for more trading opportunities. So, uh really looking at CLS for next week for another leaps play, but again, I'm waiting for kind of a bounce off this 50-day moving average.
Now, let's go ahead and go over two specific stock updates that I wanted to talk about um to leave it off on the video. One is Robinhood, okay? So, basically, yesterday uh or Thursday this week, the crypto industry scores a big win, okay? The Clarity Act regulation bill was is pushed to the full Senate for kind of final voting before it goes to the president to be signed off.
Now, this was huge for the whole crypto industry as well as Robinhood, okay? Robinhood spiked up past 80. I thought it was going to hold above, but it didn't. Um but I do, you know, seasonality-wise for uh Robinhood is definitely more bullish. Now, if we go into my Discord with my um um, unusual whales bot here, We could pull up the seasonality on uh Robinhood and I'll show you right now the seasonality for Robinhood.
100% of the time in May Robinhood has been a green month based off of data, right? This is the last 10 years. June, 75% of the time it's been a green month. And July, 80% of the time it's been a green month. So, with that being said, I do believe the summer is going to be very strong for Robinhood, especially given the seasonality behind it.
So, you know, I I think we could get a bump back up above 90. That's what I'm expecting here um in the short term in the next, you know, 1 or 2 months. So, uh just kind of keeping a close eye on that given the seasonality and history. And then July 4th will kind of be the big date where if the president, you know, signs off on the Clarity Act, which he wants to do on July 4th, uh you we could see some real momentum coming back into this stock.
So, it's nice to see it consolidating out here, not selling off continuously. Um but that's Robinhood. Palantir, seeing a nice little green day today. Hey, little pocket of strength on a red day with in the markets is good to see on this stock because that means there's more underlying strength. Um and then who knows, you know, maybe on some of the sector sector rotation, we could see rotation coming back into Palantir.
But again, holding these levels, you know, holding the 129-130 area um is very good to see. So, if we can see some momentum come back, looks like we're you know, bullish crossover potentially on the RSI and MACD looks like it wants to do a bullish crossover as well, potentially on Monday. So, we'll see if we can get some momentum uh for Palantir in the next couple trading days.
Uh but I do, you know, expect this thing is very volatile. It swings wildly. So, you know, could it be in in the 145 to 150 range next week? Potentially. Wouldn't surprise me given that we're here at the lower Bollinger band. We're, you know, very oversold, overextended. PEs at 151 historically this thing has been at a 700 PE last year.
So, it's trading at quite a discount for their relative multiples. Now, . I'll see you in the next update and take care.
Comments 0