저자: Ryan · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 인프라주(MU, SNDK, WDC)가 PE 대비 실적 성장으로 재평가되며 신고가 행진 중이라고 주장. ADP 고용 호조로 금리인상 우려 있으나 일시적이라 봄. VIX 15~20 구간에서 현금 15%로 공격적 대응, 하락 시 분할 매수 전략. CRDO·VRT 풋 매도로 조정 시 편입 의향 제시. 시장은 SPY 745~765 범위 예상.
다듬은 글
The market had a little sell-off today, but stocks like SanDisk, MU, and Western Digital continue to make new all-time highs day after day. I'm going to talk about why these particular AI infrastructure stocks continue to make new all-time highs even though there's bad inflation data coming out, economic news is not so favorable.
I'm going to go over those, and then I'm going to talk about two particular stocks that I added into the portfolio and I'm sizing up as they pull back. , let's take a look at the account. Right here, this is my public portfolio that I share here on YouTube, and if you do want to follow me on my eight-figure journey in the next five to six years, b ahead and go into the realized gain loss for transparency.
As you can see today, I closed out some GLW cash secured puts. Profit on the day. five 39 clients all sharing their inspiration. As you can see, this client closed out some Palantir leaps. Uh this client right here showing some inspiration for the month of May. And then we had one of our biggest inspirations right here uh for the month of May for this client.
So, it's awesome to see this. Obviously, uh those results vary vary based off account size and risk tolerance, but if you do want to see my Ryan's Trades and my leaps entries and exits channel. I also do show a little bit of my personal life and do daily market updates as well as , be sure to be subscribed because they're absolutely free.
Now, let's go ahead and jump straight into the news. We had ADP payrolls come out. Private payrolls grew by 122,000, which was actually stronger than expected. So, this is a good thing for the jobs market, right? More people getting jobs. But, the problem is is that that is not so favorable for inflation data because the more people that have jobs, obviously the more people spend, and that could affect the inflation numbers.
And that rate hike number that we were looking at um that quarter basis point rate hike being priced in. So, we're going to dive deeper into that. The US economic data coming out this week. Uh tomorrow we have initial jobless claims. And then um next week or Friday we have the unemployment report. And next week we have some big ones.
So, I think there may be some volatility going into next Wednesday. Core CPI, key and key inflation indicator, and core PPI as well. Um so, just be aware of that. Now, the CME FedWatch tool is still pricing in one rate hike for December, 76% odds. January, 95% odds. So, not so favorable for the stock market.
But, again, as I've said every week, these numbers can flip. We could see a a rate cut being priced in. You know, if uh oil falls down into the 70s or the Iran war situation comes to a complete end. So, I do believe these numbers are transitory and it's not a sustained rate hike continuation because of extreme inflation like we saw back in 2021 where the inflation numbers going into 2022 went as high as 9% and the Fed had to hike hike rates for a considerable a considerable amount of time to bring those numbers down.
So, uh again, just taking a look at this every week, making sure that we don't see a second rate hike coming to into fruition on the table. Um but again, transitory. If we take a look at the markets, okay, market tied today. Fear and Greed Index on Unusual Whales is right at that zone between greed and neutral.
So, definitely a little pullback that we saw today. We saw a lot of hedging activity going on by institutions in SPY, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, MU, Oracle, Amazon. Uh really a lot of names, right? The only call buying we saw today was in Sandisk and Meta. Those were the top call buying activities from institutions, which tells me that, you know, there's still institutions stepping into uh weakness and leaning into the dip.
So, um you know, not bearish by any means, but more put hedging activity. If we take a look at SPY, like I talked about, the market maker was expecting a move in this this next week all the way up to 765 and all the way down to 745. So, if we do get that dip all the way down to 745, which would be around that mid-Bollinger Band line or the 20-day moving average, um that would not be surprising and it would be a good time to load up.
Um as this is very light volume selling here. Now, if we take a look at the VIX, okay, the VIX is spiking back up a little bit, which is actually good to see because that gives us opportunity to deploy some cash, which I did today. And I'm actually pretty aggressive according to my VIX cash allocation levels, which has kept me safe through bear markets, crashes, recessions, and black swan events.
So, let's take a look at that. As you can see right here on the VIX levels, we are currently trading between VIX 15 and 20. So, there's still slight fear in the market, which allows me to have have 20 to 25% cash on the sidelines ready to buy the dips. As of right now, I'm actually 15% in cash, so I'm definitely a lot more aggressive because there was individual stock names that I saw at a major discount, you know, at that lower Bollinger Band, and I decided, "Let's go ahead and start allocating some capital." So, I'm not quite following my VIX cash allocation to the T, but I still have cash ready to go, about 15%, just in case we do get some sort of fear spike or, you know, nice um crash or pullback in the market.
So, just be wary of that. But again, Fear & Greed Index VIX cash allocation is what um, you know, I try to follow as closely as possible. Um but given everything that's going on with AI, which we'll get into, um I'm leaning a bit more aggressive. So, if we talk about some of those names, Micron Technologies hit $1,081 today, okay?
New all-time high, and it seems to be making all-time highs every single day this week. So, why are stocks like this continuing to go up? And are they just too overextended? Is this a bubble? Right? And that's what a lot of people are talking about and worried about. They're saying, "This is not sustainable.
When you see a chart like this, it's just going straight up." But that's when I like to factor in fundamentals, okay? Because there's a reason why these companies are being repriced. Number one, the demand for their products is going through the roof. Number two, they're actually earning more money to justify their valuation.
So, if we take a look just at PE ratio, price-to-earnings ratio, basically you're dividing the price of the stock divided by their earnings per share, which is a good metric to see how expensive or cheap a stock is, right? That's what I like to look at. So, if we look at historical valuations here, okay?
We could see that not too long ago, just a the week ago, that this stock was trading at a around a 40 PE, right? On May 26th, uh it was trading around a 40, let's call it a 43 PE ratio, okay? Now, 43 PE PE ratio, May 26th, this stock was trading at a price of uh let's see here, as high as $918, okay?
43 PE, $918. Now, they were also trading at a 40 let's call it a 40 PE, 41 PE, okay? When this stock was February 25th, right? When this stock was trading at $437. So, how is the PE ratio almost the same even though the stock is trading at uh a double the price, right? That's because they're actually earning more per share.
So, these valuations actually justify where the stock is trading. They're trading at a very similar PE. I mean, they're at a 50 PE today, but uh it's not far-fetched to see this stock trading at these levels. In fact, if you go back to 2024, this stock was trading at a 160 PE ratio, okay? But, the stock was only at $100.
It's nine times higher than where it was in December of 2024, yet the PE ratio is lower. That's because they're earning a lot more money, okay? They're actually turning way more profit. So, again, these stocks are being repriced. WDC is a better example. I really like WDC here, 35 PE ratio. This stock was trading at a 35 PE back in March, when the stock was at 320 bucks.
It's currently at 587, trading at the same exact PE ratio, because their last earnings, they're earning way more per share. So, again, these stocks are earning a lot of money. Now, why are these stocks doing this, right? SanDisk, same thing, right? This thing was trading at a negative PE ratio in March, and now it's a positive PE.
It's trading at a 62 PE, right? Just in March, they weren't earning anything. They weren't even turning a profit, but now they're turning a profit and they're trading at a 62 PE. So, you know, why are these stocks continuing to go up? Well, number one, all of the hyperscalers are buying their products, okay?
You have the Nvidias, the Metas, the Amazons, the Googles, right? They're spending all of their free cash flow on companies like this, where these are the AI infrastructure stocks, the picks and shovels. Now, why are these companies investing so heavily in AI? Well, obviously, you probably heard in the news, yeah, AI boost, right?
Like, maybe AI can replace human jobs. It could be more productive. And this is actually a chart that was, um, made by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, okay? This was made last year. And there's a few three scenarios here, right? There's a a singularity scenario, where, you know, the Elon Musk scenario, AI replaces human jobs, and basically we all get universal basic income, and, you know, um, companies profit is 95% profit margin, because AI is doing all of the work.
Now, that's a less likely scenario. Uh, more realistic scenario is that we get an AI GDP boost of about 0.3% from where it's at now. Now, that seems like a small number, but if we're talking about trillions of dollars, right? That's actually a lot of a lot of productivity. So, this green line is kind of like, in the next 10 years, if, you know, we're probably going to get somewhere around a 0.3 GDP boost, meaning companies are more effective and more profitable, okay?
Which would increase lifestyle for everyone, right? That would it would cause deflation, items would become cheaper, right? And then we have another event right here, being, uh, kind of, you know, also is also a possibility, which I won't even get into because that's kind of doomsday scenario, and I'm more of an optimistic person.
So, um, let's take a look at it, right? AI could be the next major productivity boom. We already see it being implemented everywhere, especially with the humanoid robots starting to come into fruition, right? Automation, faster work, better efficiency, more output per worker, which increases living standards, right?
If productivity rises, living standards can improve through cheaper goods and services, right? What it may have taken a dollar to create a certain physical product, maybe it takes 30 cents now because of AI and humanoid robots. Higher profit margins, faster innovation, and more wealth creation. So, AI could help lower inflation pressure, boost productivity, increase profits, and improve living standards over time.
And really, that's what all of these companies are banking on. So, they're the smartest minds, the biggest companies in the world are investing all of their free cash flow, or at least a majority of it, into these companies to help build out the AI, okay? Now, let's talk about the companies that I added more of to the portfolio.
So, we just had Cridits Technologies, which has been a wonderful company in the portfolio, but I actually sized up quite a bit, okay? They just had their earnings, and what I like about Cridits is if you take a look at their cash-to-debt ratio, it's absolutely insane, right? 20 million in debt and 1.16 billion in cash, okay?
They could cover their debt many, many, many times over, and the profit margins, um, for last quarter, 38%, okay? This is the type of companies, the AI companies that I want to be a part of because they have enough cash to cover their debts, they can weather any storm, and they are increasing their profit margins drastically with this whole AI boom because the big companies Google, Meta, Amazon are spending money for their products.
Okay, so Credo is one that I added off that pullback after earnings. So earnings, you know, in going into earnings this traded up to 246 and then it quickly dropped back down. So I'm going to show you exactly what I did. , but if we take a look at the account, you could see my Credo position brand new, right?
We have these earnings puts right here that I'm just waiting to expire worthless. But it's a 148k position. So I sized up from literally I had zero positions on Credo to 148k. All right. Now, what I did today was I went out to July 2nd, 29 days out and I went to the 175 put option. There's about 900 bucks of premium there.
Right? I would go anywhere from the 175 and my highest ones is 190, okay? And the 190 there's about 1,500 bucks of premium. So the range on collateral there is about 5.4 all the way up to 8.6% in 29 days. Obviously, results vary based off where the stock's at. And if the stock goes below 175, I'll be forced to buy 100 shares and that's my risk there, okay?
So um I love the stock. I don't mind getting assigned at those levels cuz if we take a look at the chart, right? Uh 190, that's my highest strike is right here. All right. And then we have another strike down here at 170. Or actually, it was uh 175. Okay? And then if we take a look at the discount I'd be getting if assigned, right?
That would be a 22% discount from all-time highs at the 190 and then a almost a 30% discount at the 175. So I don't mind getting assigned those prices because, you know, frankly, I believe the stock is undervalued. It's trading at a 84 PE, right? And yeah, again, a big winner in the AI space. So, I do think that Credo um has room to grow.
So, that's going to be the first one. The second one is VRT. So, Vertiv Holdings, they provide the cooling solutions for all of these GPUs, right? Liquid cooling. Uh this stock has been trading at a decent discount. They got added into the S&P 500 last February. And the stock has just been on a major uptrend.
So, this has been the first time it's really pulled back and is staying down here. So, I really like these prices. So, what I did, okay, and if we go into the portfolio, we can go to VRT, was I added a couple puts. Uh my portfolio position's only 59K. I plan on adding more as the stock maybe trends a little bit further downwards, but I have the 300 puts in the 290s.
Um so, what I would do right now, or what I did rather, is I went to that 300 strike, picked up over a thousand bucks, and the range on collateral is 3.6%. Obviously, results vary based off where the stock's at, and if it goes below 300, I will be forced to buy 100 shares. But I'm happy with that because if we go to VRT's chart, 300 is right at that lower Bollinger band, right?
And historically, if you look every time it's touched that lower Bollinger band, what does it do next? Okay? As you can see, what does it do next? Right? Lower Bollinger band, lower Bollinger band, lower Bollinger band. It's very rare that it does. Like it'll do it every few months. And that's prime opportunity um for me to add to the portfolio.
So, really liking VRT in the portfolio. And, you know, I will be continuing to look out for discounts because again, some of these stocks, WDC, above that upper Bollinger band, rarely pulls back, but if it does, again, I'll be looking at WDC, MU, DRAM being a favorite ETF that hasn't really pulled back, but we'll be waiting for a pullback on some of these names.
But again, you know, VRT, CRDO looks good on the pullback and GLW looks good here as well. So, and I'll see you on Friday's update video. Take care.
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