저자: Ryan · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 인프라 조정 구간에서 익스피리언스 재진입 관점 제시. 금리 인상 기대와 Treasury 채권 바이백 발표를 언급하며 SPY/QQQ 하방 리스크를 경계하고 현금 비중 18% 유지. 엔비디아 실적 전 195 행사가 현금담보풋 3계약 매도(약 $58k), 이익 장기 보유 관점에서 WDC·GLW·COHR·KLA 재진입 가능 구간 제시. 비트코인 78k에서 위험자산 회복 신호로 해석.
다듬은 글
The market has eased somewhat today , with shares of AI infrastructure companies continuing to lose recent gains. I will talk about four specific AI stocks that institutional investors are actively buying, which I think are good points for re-entry. I will also talk about my new position in Nvidia shares and one stock that appeared in my portfolio for the first time.
So , let's get straight to the point. Remember, this is not financial advice. I am only sharing what I do personally, solely for educational purposes. Results may vary. Now let's take a look at the account: this is my public portfolio, which I share here on YouTube. If you want to see how I achieve my eight-figure goal in the next 5-6 years, be sure to subscribe to this channel by clicking the button below the video.
Also click on the bell to receive my latest updates. And if you found this video helpful, please give it a like—I really appreciate it, as does your presence here. Now let's move on to realized gains and losses for transparency. We didn't close any deals today, so I'll show you the current year's profit, as I haven't shown it for a few weeks.
As you can see, the profits for the year—the results, of course, vary depending on the month and year. But I am happy not only for this, but also because over 1,000 of my clients at Options Trading University, my private masterclass, adhere to the principles and strategies that I share during my mentoring sessions.
Here you can see how customers share their successes throughout the day. Of course, results depend on account size and risk tolerance. But if you want to access my trades and entries/exits in long term options, the link to that is at the beginning of the description below. I also post free trading ideas on Instagram, where I update the market daily and share my personal life, as well as on my X account and free newsletter.
You will find all three links below in the description. So be sure to subscribe, because it's completely free. Now let's dive straight into the news. Today, Treasury Secretary Bessant announced that the Treasury will use $1 trillion from the main account to fund bond buybacks. This was a new understanding that seemed to complement what we saw last week when they announced a $4 billion purchase of 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds to try to lower their yields and overall interest rates.
So, this is something new that is developing. We'll see how this unfolds, but it could definitely be a positive catalyst in the near term. So, if we look at the CME Fed Watch tool, more importantly, we see that a second rate hike is still priced in for July next year. So, with a second rate hike already in the pipeline, we need to be aware of the level of risk we are willing to take on in our portfolio right now.
So I'm definitely keeping cash on the side, ready to take advantage of any dips we see, perhaps in September, which is a more volatile month seasonally. We also have a rate hike estimated at 94% probability in December. So we'll keep an eye on that. Regarding today's market , we have seen some " bullish" buying of call options in QQQ, SanDisk, MRNA, WDC, i.e.
some memory sector companies, as well as Microsoft, AMD and Google. Today looked like a sector rotation day to me . There were a lot of stocks that rose and a lot that fell, and as you can see, it was a pretty mixed day across the market. The fear and greed index of market sentiment was right at the neutral mark .
So, we are by no means in the territory of extreme fear. We are right in the middle, and we can see this in the VIX index. Now let's dive into this. We see crude oil at 85. So there's not really much improvement here. Again, we're not trading above $100 a barrel, but we're also not in the 70s range like we were a few weeks ago, you know?
So, it's worth keeping an eye on: if the price of oil starts to creep above 90, I think there's potential for a bigger market pullback, maybe even a double bottom. So, let's take a look at SPY. Given this, I believe there is still downside risk here . As I said last Friday, "Hey, I made some hedges on SPY." The 50-day moving average is what I focus on.
So this area is 750, let's call it 750 to 755. We're very close, but I think we could get a little bit of a dip on any bad news or if Nvidia's earnings turn out to be not as high as expected. So I think there is some downside risk, but despite that, I am optimistic in the long term , especially for this year.
I think any drop in SPY we see will be bought up, and it will be short-lived given the overall strength of the markets and current fundamentals. We see that QQQ is at 706, right within the expected range. I'm eyeing 700, but if we see a drop below that, I think the next stop could be the 685 area. So let's just be careful.
Will we get a full double bottom where we go all the way down to the 660 area? That would be pretty extreme. I don't think it's likely, but then again, anything can happen and I'm just keeping that in mind . The VIX is pretty calm here, around 15. We are in the mild fear zone, but not yet in the excessive greed zone.
I think if we start to drop to 14 and a rally starts, it's time to close some deals. But right now I keep some cash in reserve. Let's look at the VIX cash distribution levels. You see we are trading between VIX values of 15 and 20. So there is a slight fear in the markets. We are right at level 15.
20–25% cash. Last Friday I had about 20%. I have now reduced this slightly to 18% as I have opened a trade on Nvidia earnings . So I'm a little more aggressive in case the rally we've seen the last few weeks continues, especially in AI stocks. If AI infrastructure stocks go up on good news and Nvidia earnings, I don't want to miss out on that growth potential.
So I keep cash on hand in case of a drawdown, but if there isn't one, I remain somewhat exposed to these assets in case of further growth , which is always possible. The market is very future-oriented and quite stable, despite the fact that the situation with the war in Iran has not yet been resolved.
You know, crude oil is at 85, and the yield on 10- year Treasury bonds is about 4.7%. So, with that in mind, let's take a look at stocks, specifically AI stocks, which I think are at a very, very good discount right now. There is a slight downside risk, but I believe the upside potential is greater given the strength we see in some of these names.
So, as you can see, Bitcoin is at 78k here. It's quite strange to see this kind of movement and trajectory in the crypto sector, and this, in my opinion , is a harbinger of the next "bullish " rally, okay? This Bitcoin is a risky asset. This asset only gets funds when people are willing to take risks and are willing to say, “Hey, it’s a little cheap here.
We really believe it will go up." So, you know, it started to build up when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant announced that they were going to start buying back bonds. This is state intervention. This is, you know, to some extent a manipulation of some of the Treasury markets, right? So with this government intervention, it's essentially saying , " Hey, the government is ready to step in to save the markets at any moment." While this is not a Fed intervention, with the trillion dollars set aside by the Treasury to buy back bonds, it is much more than I expected.
So, with that in mind, we see a nice rise in Bitcoin, as well as gold, right? Gold is finally showing a rally as well . So, let's dive into Nvidia's revenue, because that's the first thing. We talked about this last week. I said, "If Nvidia goes below 210, I'll enter the deal on the earnings report." Well, it happened today.
We dropped right to the 50- day moving average, below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. This is a perfect entry point to sell a cash- backed put with a price below 200. So, personally for me, I like Nvidia below 200. I think that 's the price zone. And as you can see, that's where VWAP is. Therefore, the volume-weighted average price on an annual basis is the institutional cost base.
So if I can take Nvidia in these areas that have been great support in the past, right? This is a good place to buy stocks and ride the growth again, as we did before. So what did I do today... Let's get to the score. Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I do myself, purely for educational purposes.
Results may vary. You see we opened a new position: three cash backed puts, which is about $58k at 195 strikes. Um, I actually made $450 in 7 days. And if Nvidia falls below 195, I will be assigned 100 shares. I don't believe that will happen. So, if you look at the expected movement through August 28th, it's plus or minus $13.
That is, in fact, it could fall to 195. So I was just focusing on this expected movement . At that time, it was trading at 209. So, it was just outside the expected movement. So if, you know, for some reason the earnings come out lower than expected and the stock drops to $13, I'll get the stock and then hold it until it goes up .
I kind of caught it near the lower Bollinger band, and that was my train of thought. I wanted to take it somewhere around the 200-day moving average and the lower Bollinger band here. So I don't mind picking it up and then waiting for it to grow. Now, if it goes up, or stays at the same level, or above 195, I'll just take the premiums and maybe open a few more cash-backed puts later.
But Nvidia looks very good here. Not a bad little sell-off before the earnings report. This is exactly what I wanted to see, because usually when we grow until the report, the stock then falls. So, um, it's nice to see that today. Now let's talk about some stocks that I think are at a very good discount and that institutional investors are buying up.
You see WDC here. WDC is trading just above VWAP towards the lower Bollinger Band. I think this is a good second entry into the stock before it goes up again. So if we look at institutional buying in the second quarter, you can see WDC in Unusual Whales. BlackRock cut their positions a little bit, right?
Their average price is $65 per share. So it makes sense that they would cut them back a bit in the face of historically more volatile times. Vanguard added it, right? We have Capital World Investors, they also added . Their average price is 321. State Street added, as did Invesco and Morgan Stanley, okay?
These are just a few examples, as well as UBS. So, some big banks were also buying. Um, but this is a bit of an ambiguous situation, right? Those with lower average prices saw a slight decline in share in the second quarter, but we saw a few new additions from Vanguard. Um, so that's really nice to see, right?
The lower Bollinger band, I like this spot, the RSI is almost oversold, and the PE ratio is trading at 18 . This is the current PE ratio and I think it's a really good price to buy WDC. A lot of people were a little mad at themselves for not taking it sooner when we went up almost to 600, got to 550, then got rejected at the 50-day moving average, but I think this is a good point to go up again.
So, let's just look at this. If we look at my portfolio, you will see that we have it. Okay, we have about 300 shares. The average price is 514, and we continue to collect premiums from covered call options. We will cover them in September and I will close these covered call options with a nice profit of over $4,500.
Okay, so this would be WDC, one stock that I think is headed significantly higher and is trading at a decent multiple at these levels. Another one— GLW. Well, GLW is trading well below VWAP right near the 200 -day moving average. Of course, could there be a double bottom here? Yes, there is some downside risk.
It could go as low as 120. But I think the upside risk is much higher, okay ? I really think that at some point in the future, maybe within the next 8 to 12 months, you know, we can...I'm looking at a range of 240 to 260, okay? So, there's a lot of room for growth here, right ? And I really like this company.
PE ratio 66. Huge multi-billion dollar deal with Amazon recently . And that's just something I want to keep in my portfolio for the long haul. So, um, if we look at my position, you'll see that we have about 800 shares at 189. And then I sold three more put options at 155 to potentially get the shares in 25 days.
But who knows, right? GLW may grow and I may not receive these shares as intended. But this is another stock that I definitely consider in the portfolio as a good re- entry point. The best one, in my opinion, is actually COHR, okay? COHR is trading below that VWAP. It is also trading right above the 200-day moving average, which serves as good support.
And if we look at institutional investors, okay? Let's take a look. You can see that these are the AI infrastructure stocks that all the banks are buying the most, okay? Look at BlackRock. Average price 112, Vanguard average price 239. They added FMR or Vanguard Portfolio Management, State Street, Nvidia, right?
Invesco, Geode Capital, Morgan Stanley, T. Rowe Price and many other big banks, Charles Schwab, right? We actively bought Coherent in the second quarter. So, with that in mind, I think Coherent is probably one of the stocks with the most potential for future growth. It's trading at a P/E ratio of 66, which is a great figure compared to where they were trading previously at this same price, right?
They were trading right here, at the same price per share, right? But then the stock was trading at a P/E ratio of over 200, over the past twelve months. They are currently trading at a P/E of 66 because they earn so much more per share. So their profits are growing significantly, and the shares are trading at a significant discount.
So , I believe there is also great growth potential here. As for downside risk, I would say I am looking at the 220 zone again for a double bottom, this is potentially the worst case scenario. But, you know, in terms of growth, I believe I'm targeting a level of 420 to 460, but we'll see how that plays out.
So, this is COHR. Let's move on to one stock I added to the portfolio. This is a new addition, okay? This is KLA, K-KLA Corporation , okay? Also semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks. Almost a double bottom here. So, you know, it reached the 169 zone. It is currently trading at 181. Can it reach the 161 zone again?
Or the 169 zone near the lower Bollinger band? Perhaps. This would be right at the 200- day moving average. But, you know, I think that would be a good entry for a double bottom. The stock is trading at a P/E of 49, a little lower, and that's exactly what I'm looking for— AI stocks with a lower P/E ratio, right?
Which trade at about the same level as something like Nvidia, right? Nvidia is trading at a P/E of 31. So KLA isn't too far off at a P/E of 49, okay? So, this is another company with a nice uptrend chart . A nice big pullback from all-time highs, right? The all-time highs were above 300, 307. And it's still down about 41%.
So I believe there is still a lot of growth ahead. And it was a great entry in one of my other portfolios. We sold several put options below the lower Bollinger band. So, Kaleylac, a brand new company in the portfolio. Thanks to several Options Trading University participants for suggesting it. A very good find, and I like that it is trading below the annual VWAP.
So if you found this video helpful, please give it a like, and I'll see you in the next update on Wednesday. Take care , see you there.
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