저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 배당 등 소득 목적 투자는 실수이며, 자본을 재투자해 복리 성장할 수 있는 장기 성장 기업에 투자해야 한다. 핵심 원칙: 자기자본이익률(ROCE) 29% 기업이라도 이익을 전부 배당하면 복리 효과가 없다. 예시로 100 자본→29 이익 중 약 절반 유보 시 다음 해 115 자본으로 성장하는 구조를 든다. 성장 원천: 경기순환형 성장이 아닌 장기 지속 성장 동력을 중시한다. 다섯 가지 범주 제시 — 개발도상국의 소비화, 선진국의 프리미엄화, 고령화(특히 의료기기·장비), 공간(white space) 성장(예: 안경·시력교정, 결제의 현금→카드·모바일 전환, 치약 사용 확산), 반려동물 시장(사료·수의진료·진단장비). 선호 사업모델: 소액·반복적·예측 가능한 거래로 수익을 내는 기업(호텔 프랜차이즈, 엘리베이터·에스컬레이터 서비스, 예약시스템 아마데우스, 항공사, 페이팔, 필립모리스 등 언급). 반면 건설 프로젝트·영화 등 일회성 대형 계약 사업은 예측이 어려워 회피한다. 몰람(Molam) 건설 사례와 디즈니 영화 손실 사례를 든다. 대상 자산 예측: 영상에서 삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 금, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음. 개별 종목으로는 페이팔·아마데우스·필립모리스 등을 보유 사례로만 언급. 출연자 전망: 장기 투자 철학 설명이며 단기 시장 전망 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
as you should never ever invest for income it's a mistake it's no good having higher returns if you don't have a source of growth you can have 29 return on Capital employed but we're looking for a company that has a source of growth because if it starts the year with a hundred in capital and it makes 29 return presumably ends the year with 129.
what we want is a company that can retain up certain things not pay them all out in dividend one of the things I say about investment that you didn't touch on which seems to affects people a lot is you should never ever invest for income it's a mistake you want companies that can reinvest as much as they possibly can because that is how actual compounding and value works if you've got a company that starts with 100 makes a 29 return may be retained typically about half of that so it starts the next year with 115 in capital pays out the rest in dividend and it makes 29 on 115.
and it does that year that's what you're looking for now that can only occur if they have a source of growth they need to sell more stuff frankly in order to invest you can't do you can't do the investment unless there's a source of growth in your business so we look for sources of growth sources of secular growth we're not interested in cyclical growth where the company sells more things during a boom and then it sells a lot less in a recession there are ups and downs of course all companies have some cyclicality we're looking for people who have a long and continuous driver of growth and it typically falls into one of these five categories consumerization of the developing world in the developing world when people go past a certain threshold of disposable income they become consumers so when they have ten dollars a day to spend they become consumers why well they're working in a country or living in a country where they've now got a normal job they're involved in the country's industrializing typically they need to actually have the convenience of being a consumer like we do they can't spend their entire life sourcing and preparing food working in the agricultural sector they need to actually go to work and have the convenience with they're also aspirational they want to become consumers so that's one driver another one is premiumization the developer the developed world is not consumerizing in the same way that this one is it's not got the population growth that much of the developing world has got but we've got premiumization you know we may not drink as much as we used to but we drink more expensive than we used to if we drank Smirnoff maybe now we drink great Goose or we drink syrup you know you know we used to drink uh tankery dream but maybe we now get a craft gin we used to put Schweppes mixer in there maybe we put Fever Tree in there now we're not consuming more but we're paying more for it it's a source of growth sometimes it's aging populations I mean obviously one of the drivers in the developing world is the use of population young people spend more money than aging people except in one area there's one area where aging populations definitely take the lead and that's anything in the medical area so medical medical devices and equipment in particular other areas for growth why it's space if you're not familiar with that's a term that's used in the Marketing sales world if you've got a map of the country or the world or a region and and you've got no sales in a particular country and so on you color it white on the map it's somewhere you can grow into over time there are certain industries that have got massive white space to grow into and we know that they'll grow over time eyes the majority of people in the world who need vision correction don't get it at the moment they will eventually it will arrive and when they can afford it and the service is available they will get reading glasses and other forms of vision correction payments payment companies are something we invest in people like MasterCard PayPal Visa people say which one do you prefer and we say well actually we like Visa but Moscow is pretty good as well right why do we say it like that because actually their big competitor is not each other their big competitor is Cash 85 lawyers transactions are still done in cash it's white space for them to grow into and if we try to explain to our children maybe or our grandchildren that the main mechanism that the world had for settling uh transactions was that you printed something on paper or plastic that had to be designed to prevent it being easily fooled she had to securely transported to a bank then you went to the bank and took it out then you went to a shop and you paid it in and the shop paid it into the bank again and it was circulated again they're going to regard us as mad because they just think when you walk into Starbucks and you're riding you've got your phone on you you've paid now and that's their growth Theory um toothpaste very similar to um to the eyes thing two-thirds of the world doesn't yet brush their teeth with toothpaste and a toothbrush but they will every time they will I mean if they want to have a relationship with other people who use toothbrushes fairly certain they'll have to get used to the idea and some things are just Trends pets my favorite sub sector for investment in is anything to do with pets or companion animals to give them the technical term pets are a fabulous growth area in the developed world and increasingly in the developing World a pet is a full family member if any of you got pets you'll know this they are child substitutes their grandchild substitutes people are having children later they substitute for this we are prepared to spend seemingly endless amounts of money on pairs in pet food you can get specialist pet food for overweight pets diabetic pets aging pets to prevent Alzheimer's aging pets to promote flexibility you can get performance dog food if you run with your dog like it'll run faster you can get it for your cat's thyroid condition you name it and we are mad when it comes to this stuff you know Americans last time I checked it was about four years ago spent 10 billion dollars that year on diet pet food now I've never met a pet that can open the cupboard you could just feed it less know the diet pet food costs more than the standard stuff doesn't it it's great and the area of pets that's the absolute Pinnacle of it is uh is in veterinary care because again pets are moving along Continuum like we did 25 years ago some of that the average Pat went to the veterinary surgeon if at all it's life twice now they go at least as many times if not more times than they're human owners and they've got a there's a great one of the companies we invest in is a is a Veterinary Diagnostics equipment company and the reason for that is simple you need more diagnostic assistance with with animals because they can't tell you how they feel now they can't the vet can't have a chat with them and say where's the pain I mean usually the vet only my eldest daughter is a vet by the way Norm the vet only finds out when they find the right spot and get bitten testing any form of testing I touched upon Veterinary testing is a growth area think of health and safety than any State uh when you find Hawks meeting Burgers how do you know you need Mass spectrometry you need people to make some Mass spectrometry equipment to tell you anything like that is a growth area we like companies that make their money from a large number of everyday small ticket repeat predictable transactions we don't like people who make their money if at all from a big one-off you know it's a building contract or a property development or a infrastructure project or a movie or something like that you've no idea whether it's going to work I always cite the example of molam the construction company which celebrated the contract which it got to build the tunnel from Dublin airport to Dublin Docks but it was a bit premature to declare Victory because it bust the company yeah they got the contract okay but you know they're going underground in terms of work is notoriously difficult to predicts movies unless the movie that you're about to make is one rare multiple franchises so Harry Potter plus the Caribbean James Bond a few there are a few multiple franchises out there they've been others as well Star Wars and so on but once you get outside that movie studios have not got a clue whether they'll make any money Disney a couple of years ago lost 200 million dollars on a movie called John Carter this is Disney this is not amateurs lost the money um they have no idea but it's gonna work it's terrible industry very exciting to work in but you know terribly we like people who make their money from things that are relatively predictable so when we have drinks when we give our feed our pets when we brush our teeth when we apply Cosmetics when we make payments when we ride up and down on an elevator or an escalator that's that makes money from the service spares and uh and so on when they make medical devices that we know are going to be required in human bodies as an artificial hip when you stay at a hotel we like Hotel franchise businesses so every day predictable events I think we were trying to work out on our way here this morning how many points we touched in our portfolio on our way to uh to Mauritius I can't remember what ones did we come up with reservation system so Amadeus we own Airlines PayPal I've ordered something online from PayPal and I ordered some Philip Morris icos heat sticks for somebody I know who who can't get them where they live so I'm going to take them some some Philip Morris heat sticks so we three things we did this morning which which are in our portfolio just on our way here basically
Comments 0