저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
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결론: 고ROIC 성장주를 싸게 사기보다 좋은 기업을 오래 보유하라는 장기 투자 원칙 강연. 핵심 원칙: 좋은 기업의 1차 기준은 운영자본 대비 높은 현금 수익률(ROIC)이며, 자본비용보다 높은 수익을 지속하면 가치가 커진다. 성장 동력: 재투자할 수 있는 구조적(secular) 성장원이 필요하며, 경기순환적 성장과 구분해야 한다. 성장 원천으로 개발도상국 소비화, 선진국 프리미엄화, 고령화, 미개척 시장(white space: 안경·결제·칫솔 등), 반려동물 시장 등을 제시. 경쟁력: 평균회귀 법칙에 맞서 경쟁우위(해자)를 가진 소수 기업만 장기 초과수익을 유지한다. 투자 태도: 대다수 투자자는 '싼가 비싼가'에 집중하고 '좋은 사업인가'는 소홀히 한다. 워런 버핏·찰리 멍거 인용, 6% 자본수익 기업은 장기간 할인 매수해도 성과가 제한적이라고 주장. 사례/수치: 미국 반려동물 식품 지출 연 100억 달러(당시 기준), 미국 성인 40%가 1인 가구, 세계 거래의 80% 이상이 현금 결제, 세계 인구 약 60%가 칫솔·치약 미사용, 저시력 교정 미실시 인구 다수. 리스크/조건: 명시적 가격 방향 예측 없음. 평가 기준은 가격이 아닌 사업 품질. 출연자 전망: 반려동물·진단·결제 관련 구조적 성장 지속 전망(종목명 미언급).
다듬은 글
first and most important measure of a good company in financial terms is it makes a high return on operating capital in cash the cash delivered in a reporting period divided by the capital employed is a high number secondly has a source of growth which enables it to reinvest those cash flows it's no good having wonderful returns of your business if you are land locked into a very small segment Niche or geography and you can't deploy the cash that's being generated to grow the business you need both of those elements to make a truly great investment and last but by no means least you need a source of sustainable Capital advantage to prevent mean reversing people are attracted to compete in your business there's a perfectly good law of Economics called mean reversion which says that all returns revert to the mean in the end it's not quite right this is all of course the answer is most companies return to revert to the mean or average at the end there are a few companies that have got competitive advantage that enables them to fend off the to competition companies are just like us people are over complicate analysis companies have a cost of capital and a return on Capital like a return above their cost of capital can send the value of the company grows at the time if they make a return below their cost of capital consistently the value shrinks over time think of it in personal terms if you go out to your bank and borrow money at five percent and you invested in punishment for the last decade at 18 you would have become more wealthy if you borrow for your bank at five percent and invested in somebody else's under two percent return you would have become poorer we don't need to get into higher mathematics here or any particularly sophisticated level of thinking it's a fact this year send your report 79 I would say more people in the investment Community have ignored it than have used it this quote from Warren Buffett's number two Charlie Munger in many respects summarizes why this is important I'll just read it over the long term it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it returns it owns if the business earns six percent on Capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years you're not going to make much difference to a six percent return here's the punch line even if you're originally buy it at a huge discount conversely if a business earns 18 on Capital 20 or 30 years even if you pay an expensive looking price you end up with one hell of a result he's telling us something here which is very important this is not a theory he's not putting forward a theory of investment it's a mathematical fact it's important to realize that I wish I've had a diary that I've kept from when I started in finance all those years ago and I put two columns in each day and every time in the investment business somebody asked me whether a company or a strategy was high quality good at high returns of capital I'll put a tick in one column and every time they said but is it cheap or expensive I put a tick in that column I would have far far more tips in the is it cheaper expensive car people spend almost their entire effort thinking about whether something's cheap or expensive highly rated or lowly rated which I guess is a better way of expressing it and far too little deciding whether it's a high grade business that they really want to own that can compound it and I think manga basically encapsulates why it's important in that quote once you've got adequipped returns you need to have a source of growth to enable you to reinvest it's no good having a business that makes 25 return on Capital but you can't sell any more of the product or service and nothing nothing for them to deploy more Capital into so we look for companies that have got a source of growth for them to invest in when they invest in a very high quality companies franchise like that high rates of return on Capital they do a better job for you than I can ever do I was asked in an article recently whether managers of companies are better at deploying Capital than fund managers and the answer is it's not really a fair question because fund managers don't control businesses but managers who are in control of very high quality business some of the world's great consumer companies tech companies medical companies and so on have a different opportunity to fund managers they have a business that can generate High returns to reinvest it they just have to not screw it up basically where does this growth come from we look for a business has a a source of secular growth not cyclical growth not it goes up and it goes down everything has a bit of cyclicality but we're looking for for companies which both at the peak and the Truffle business cycle are bigger than they were but previous part of the business cycle that grow ain't every reporting period or every year but they do grow over time and it typically comes from one or more of these things consumerization of the developing world when people in the developing world go past a certain level of disposable income they become consumers they're part of a developing economy they no longer spend all their time sourcing and preparing food they've got jobs in factories and call centers and all kinds of things like that they need the the benefits of consumerization and they they aspire to become consumers as well but in the developed world there's preminisation we may not be consuming more mostly but we consume better over time you know we may not drink more hopefully most of us don't but we might drink better quality we might upgrade what we do so whatever it is we're talking about consuming and it's quite a good chance that we will go up the curve in terms of brand of goods that we're consuming over time and premise it aging populations an awful lot of people look for growth in investment through young populations in fact that's part of the drive in the consumerization of the developing world but aging populations are pretty good too aging populations have increased consumption for a number of things and not least forms of Medical Care aging populations can be quite a Big Driver of certain companies white spaces you probably know is a term used by people in the marketing and sales business if they've got a map of a world or a country or surgery somewhere where they've got no representation no cells they're color white on the map or white space there's lots of white space around the world for people to grow into I've given you three examples their eyes and what do I mean by that something like two-thirds of the world that needs vision correction doesn't currently happen they don't currently have access to reading glasses and other forms of vision correction they will get it in time payments we're often asked whether we prefer Mastercard or VISA PayPal or Square Apple pay or Google play or and the answer is yeah we've got a view on which one might be better than the other one and so on but the reality is they'll probably all do pretty well and the reason they'll all do pretty well is they've got an enormous white space to grow into something over 80 percent of the world's volume of transactions is still done in cash basically it won't be two space like eyes you know again something like 60 of the world doesn't get used toothbrushes and toothpastes to clean their teeth they will if you want to have an intimate relationship with somebody who started cleaning their teeth best you take it up I think would be my way of looking at it and so for people who are in this industry like Colgate there is a clearly a very long runway for one of the better term and there are other Trends which are just out there which which we aligned upon just put a couple down there pets if I had to pick one area of secular growth which appears to have a very very long way either it's spending on so-called companion animals or pets pets as any of you got them will know are on a journey to becoming full family members our spending on pets that is rising very rapidly the year that I last looked Americans spent 10 billion dollars per annum on diet pet food now have a think about that for a moment there are not very many pets that can open the cup and you could just try spending giving them less to eat but no diet pet foods are what they buy and of course foot diet really more expensive at higher margin and so on and so forth 40 of American adults live alone so then particularly doing things like the pandemic a pet is an important point of contact basically if you wanted a cat or a dog in America during the lockdown you would have had to have gone on a waiting list account never minded a breeder to obtain to obtain this testing is something we like as well people do more and more testing as time goes by and coping 19 is obviously given it a big boost as well uh International Trade so and sometimes these two things cross over one of our companies is the world leader in Veterinary diagnostic testing equipment testing is more important for for pets than it is for the human animal for a very simple reason but can't speak
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