저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 증시는 명백한 버블 구간이며, 과거 버블 사례상 최고점 이후 시장은 약 절반 가량 되돌림이 예상된다. 버블의 특징: 장기 강세장 말기에 상승 속도가 평균의 2~3배로 가속하고, 역사상 가장 비싼 주가 수준, 밈주식·페니주식·옵션 거래량 급증, 최고치 수준의 신용거래 등 광기 행태가 나타난다. 뉴스가 경제면이 아닌 1면을 차지하는 것도 전형적 신호다. 과거 사례 비교: 1989년 일본 주식·부동산 버블은 현재까지 회복되지 않았고 장기 경기 침체를 낳았다. 2007년 미국 주택 버블은 약 7조 달러 손실을 초래했으며 추세선 아래까지 하락했다. 2000년 닷컴 버블은 주식만 과열이었고 부동산·채권은 저평가였기에 충격이 상대적으로 제한적이었다. 현재 상황: 채권 시장도 역사적 저금리 버블 상태이며, 미국 주택가격은 12개월간 20% 이상 급등해 가계소득 대비 역사적 고점이다. 미국 외 주식시장은 버블이라기보다 고평가 수준이다. 정책 평가: 연준의 저금리와 도덕적 해이 정책이 자산가격을 밀어올렸으며, 그린스펀·버냉키·옐런·파월 모두 같은 패턴을 반복했다. 그럼에도 금융계의 맹목적 신뢰가 지속되고 있다는 점을 지적한다. 버블 붕괴 메커니즘: 최대 차입과 최대 열기 후 열기가 서서히 식으며 매수 여력이 소진되고, 위험주가 먼저 무너지고 우량주로 번지는 경고 신호가 나타난다. 2000년에는 인터넷주→성장주→시가총액 대형주 순으로 붕괴했다. 리스크: 예상치 못한 코로나 재확산, 지속되는 인플레이션(장기 인플레 압력으로 전이), 그 밖의 예측하지 못한 요인이 버블을 꺼뜨릴 수 있다. 전망: 최근 20~30% 상승분은 되돌림이 예상되며, 공정가치 회복을 위해 시장이 약 50% 하락할 수 있다는 견해이다. 장기 주식 수익률은 과거 평균에 비해 낮을 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
I think it's clear that we're deep into bubble territory bubbles are characterized typically at the end of a long bull market by a period where they accelerate and they start to rise at two or three times the average speed of the bull market and of course they're always extremely overpriced by average historical standards and this one there are a few people who would still argue that 2000 was higher but most of the data suggests that this is the new American record or highest priced stocks in history and then there's the most important thing of all which is crazy behavior it kind of meme stock High participation by individuals which has kind of tripled in 18 months to an abnormally high level enormous trading volume in penny stocks enormous trading volume in options and huge margin levels Peak Peak borrowing of all kinds and the news is on the front page the news is not on the financial page the market big Market events are on the front page this is all characteristic of the handful of great bubbles that we've had which in 1929 in America maybe 1972 certainly 2000 and in the housing market certainly the 2007-8 in Japan 1989 was the biggest and the best of all the major markets and even bigger and better in their real estate market so we've chunked off all the boxes now the question is how high is high very hard to tell always where the peak will be but what you do know is that how high the peak is has no bearing at all on what the fair value is so let us assume that the fair value on the s p is let us say 2400.
whether it stops at 4 300 or 50 300 doesn't change that what it does change is the amount of pain that you get to go back to fair value and below the case in point would be Japan Japan had never sold over 25 times earnings in 1987 88 1989 until it went through 25 and went all the way up we were told at the time to 65 times in and the price you paid for that is that they're still not back to the same price they were in 1989 and their real estate market which was even a bigger bubble than the stock market in fact I believe the biggest bubble in history bigger than the south sea bubble and the Tulips the land under the Emperor's Palace really was worth the entire State of California and the price they paid was that their land is still not back to 1989 levels so 32 years later they're still down and that's how you get a major drag on the economy because when you mark down housing and lab it's an even bigger and more dangerous business than the stock market and if you do it at the same time as the stock market then you have an enormous loss of perceived value and that is a big big drag on the economy which the Japanese have had to absorb and it took them perhaps 20 years we paid somewhat the same price in 2007 because we had the first really interesting housing bubble in American history we had never had one before and it was the kind that was so extreme it would only occur every 100 years or so and we worked out that if it went back down to Trend it would cost seven trillion dollars and it did go back perfectly it was a very well-behaved bubble it went smoothly back at the same speed that it had gone up three years up three years down and then for good measure as is usually the case it went below the old trend line value and added another couple of trillion dollars of Pain by the housing market going even lower and that housing market was so big and profound and so accompanied by financial instruments of the notorious subprime variety that it took the stock market down with it and caused obviously a financial crisis 2000 is a very interesting contrast because 2000 was a much higher Equity bubble than 2008 but the real estate market was cheap actually very cheap the REITs were selling cheaper than the value of their properties and the properties themselves were cheaper than the cost of building them and the yield on the Reit portfolio at the very top of the market was 9.1 secondly Bonds were cheap Bonds were incredibly cheap and the new inflation-protected Bond called the tip had just been introduced and a yielded 4.3 percent just imagine that 4.3 percent guaranteed protected against inflation guaranteed good money by the government and the regular bond market was very cheap so Bonds were cheap real estate was very cheap and only the stock market was expensive and it broke beautifully of course relatively well behaved the NASDAQ went down 82 percent the s p went down 50 from that 2000 Tech bubble but the recession was not that big a deal because housing was not involved and Bonds were not involved this is the only time in history where we have a bubble in the bond market everywhere in the world we have the lowest rates in 4 000 years according to jumbo and 25 of all government money you actually pay the governments around the world to take your money they don't pay you you pay them and there's no historical precedent and that's typically slightly bigger market cap the bond market than the equity Market but then the equity Market we have probably the highest priced U.S Equity Market ever and if not the highest a very close rival to 2000 and then if that wasn't enough we have coming up on the rails at incredible speed at the U.S housing market it's up over 20 in 12 months it's the biggest move in the history it's bigger than 07 and it's taken the median house price to a higher multiple of family income than even two thousand stuff and that's all over the world the stock market is not that expensive around the world it's really clearly a bubble in the US but outside the US it's merely overpriced we typically identified a bubble Zone often it went on quite a lot longer but it always fell below the point where we had suggested it was entering bubble territory so once it broke through the peak the 1929 peak of 21 times earnings we started to be bearish in 1997 but only a little bearish and then as the peas Rose and Rose from 21 times to eventually 35 we became more and more bearish until we were screaming bearish and still the market went up for another year so we were pretty early in the housing bubble we did much much better we basically walked people through the last year or 18 months pointing out how dangerous the subprime and so on and the how housing market and how much damage it would do we pretty well got that one right and of course we got extremely lucky on reinvesting when terrified which was posted the day the market hit the low in March about nine and here we are I thought we entered double territory about last June about a year ago and I've made it quite clear what I consider a definition of success and that is only that sooner or later you will have made money to have sidestepped the bubble phase so I am suggesting that the last 20 or 30 percent of the market will be retraced with interest and I would expect that the fair value of this Market would require the market to approximately half and I would be surprised if it did much less than that and if it goes up another 20 it will have to get rid of that as well as a bonus the bubbles tend to Peak at Absolute optimism when the economy looks perfect and you're extrapolating it forever and that's the definition of a bubble and they have to be facilitated by friendly monetary conditions and when you've had a wonderful economy and friendly monetary conditions you've pretty well always had a bubble they're not that common and here we are again and we feel the economy looks wonderful if we extrapolate it forever it means it's worth a huge price of course it never does last forever but if it did it would be worth a huge price and that's the mechanics that is going on and then you can say what might rattle the cage well I think unexpected covet problems on a global basis and in the US I rattled the cage unexpected inflation that doesn't go away in a hurry and then starts to run into longer term inflationary pressures which we could discuss that might rattle the cage and the biggest cage Rattler of all is everything else you haven't thought about that could go up and my guess is that's probably the cause in the end of most of the bubbles deflating the mechanics of a bubble is you have maximum borrowing maximum enthusiasm and then the following day you're still enthusiastic but not quite as enthusiastic as yesterday a week later you're not quite as enthusiastic as last week and last month and gradually the enthusiasm level drops off a bit you have no more money to borrow you're fully borrowed and the buying pressure gradually slows down and that's it and there is a very interesting warning signal that has only happened a few times and that is in a bull market the risky stocks go up a lot more than the blue chips in 1928 the junkie low priced index went up over 80 percent and the s p went up let's say about 40.
that's what you expect in 2000 March they start to take out the internet stocks the pet.com and they shoot them and they drop like stones a month or two later they're shooting the junior growth and then a month or two later the middle growth and finally by the mid to late summer they're really shooting even the ciscos which were giant companies and they took the whole 30 of the market which was TMT they called it Tech media Telecom and it was down 50 by September it had been murdered but the s p was unchanged which meant that the other 70 the coca-colas and the rest of the boys the ibms were up about 17 on that to balance the books so what had happened is that the confidence termite thing I think of them they had started at the most crazypet.com and worked their way down through the ciscos which were pretty outrageously you know 80 times earnings and then finally they arrived at the broad market and the entire Market rolled over and fell 50 in two years so nothing like that happens again until now these are the biggest bailouts as a fraction of GDP not only in the history of our country but in the history of any country this is a far greater stimulus program both from the fed and the government that we have ever seen with money supply spiking at 25 increase with the government buying 40 billion a month of mortgages even when the real estate market is up over 20 in a year to the highest level ever recorded these are fairly crazy or Reckless or unusual features and we didn't anticipate either and they're going to tend to send the market higher and longer but as I said before it doesn't change the fair value it doesn't change the eventual outcome Powell belongs to the Greenspan Bernanke Yellen little cult they all fit together they all realized that lower rates and moral hazard pushed out the price of assets they all realize that assets going up generates a positive income effect it simply does you spend a couple of percent of what you unexpectedly gained you count on gaining a bit but if you gain five bits then you spend a little bit of the extra the following year so it has a very positive income effect the same happens with housing if housing goes roaring up you remortgage you make a trip to Spain you put your kid through school you know you do all those good things and on the downside you do completely the reverse anyway so Greenspan and the boys and the girl took a considerable satisfaction in the positive effect they had on pushing up asset prices low lower rates of moral hazard will raise the price of assets which they did all over the world and no one was a bigger friend of the stock market than Greenspan and he did raise to the rescue when they finally lost air and it only the s p went down 50 from a very high level but it only hit long-term Trend this was the first bust in history that didn't go crashing below Trends and stayed there for 10 or 15 years so he did have an effect what he wasn't able to do is he didn't start the NASDAQ from dropping 82 percent and if you're interested in Amazon it dropped 92 it had been the star of 2000 still dropped 92 before making everybody rich but who I wonder held under the psychological damage of 92 percent Decline and the s p went down 50 and then you fast forward to Bernanke Bernanke completely didn't see the housing bubble and the risk it posed he said the U.S housing market the melee reflects the strong U.S economy the U.S housing market has never declined it never had declined because it never had a bubble before every time there's been a bubble there it has always declined and Hyman Minsky lives you create a situation like that it will eventually the blow up of its own weight burst of its own weight anyway he um he was condensed at wooden collapse and of course it did and the housing market went all the way back to Trend and Below which is a was a dreadful hit and it created so much chaos it carried the stock market down with it again 50 on the S P almost exactly for the first decimal point these are not small declines and yet they occurred in the face of passionate Defenders and promoters of moral hazard and I'll come to your rescue and we'll make money cheap as it takes and that took us through Yellen and then into Power same story they all talk a wonderful game about they'll be the friend of the asset class as a class pricing the friend of the stomach and yet it didn't stop two of the greatest wipeouts in American history the most impressive thing here is not that they do the same thing over and over again as if they have somehow no memory it's the faith the financial Community has in them despite the fact that they have been let down badly twice these were not insignificant setbacks the tech crash was brutal Amazon down 92 every growth Tech stock was down 70 or so it seemed the housing bust was merciless the stock market decline of those seven was really painful and yet it's as if it never happened oh Paul says this Powell says that the FED has money the FED is going to be our friend hey Greenspan was our friend Bernanke was that friend and we got croaked guys what does it matter with you but why do you think the Federal Reserve simply does not understand the risks of asset price Bubbles and asset price collapses
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