저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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단기 가격 예측은 무의미하며 장기 관점과 리스크 통제가 핵심이라는 주장 단기 전망 무용론: 6개월 내 인플레이션·금리·경기침체·주가를 맞히는 것은 어렵고 중요하지 않으며, 장기(10~30년) 관점으로 포트폴리오를 짜야 한다고 강조. 리스크 관리: 전문 투자자의 기준은 리스크를 통제하며 돈을 버는 능력이며, 상승장에서 많이 벌기보다 하락장에서 시장을 상회하는 것이 중요하다고 주장. 역발상 투자: 투자자 심리가 극단(완벽→절망)으로 치우칠 때 낙관에서는 신중하게, 비관에서는 공격적으로 전환해야 한다고 설명. 다만 그런 기회는 드물고 대부분은 중간 지대라고 봄. 시장 현 위치: 현재 시장은 '적정(Fair)' 구간으로 판단하며, 그에 따라 평상시 자세(steady as you go)를 유지하는 것이 적절하다고 언급. 우크라이나·러시아 및 핵 위협 등 불확실성은 이미 가격에 반영되었다고 봄. 2차 사고: 남들과 같은 정보로는 평균 이상을 얻기 어려우며, 더 깊은 분석과 지식 우위가 있어야 한다고 강조. 개인 투자자 조언: 투자 기간, 소득 대비 필요 자금, 심리적 감내 수준 등을 고려해 적정 리스크를 정하고, 단기 타이밍 매매 대신 포트폴리오를 설정 후 유지할 것을 권고. 특정 종목에 대한 구체적 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
an interviewer last week said to me well what's the least important thing I hadn't had that question before the least important thing is the short run everybody's obsessed with what is going to be inflation over the next six months what will the Central Bank do in terms of interest rates to fight the inflation and will the changes in interest rates produce a recession this is what everybody wants to know and consequently of course what will happen to security prices in the next six months and the answer is it doesn't matter those are all short-term considerations it's all about the next six months three months 12 months whatever it might be number one we really can't know much about the short run number two if we develop an opinion about the short run we shouldn't have too much confidence in it it's hard to get that right number three nobody should change their portfolio Wholesale in response to what they think is going to happen over the next six months and number four the next six months isn't what matters my clients and your clients should be investing for the next 10 20 30 years I think it's easy to make money in the markets it's especially easy when the markets go up and seven or eight years out of ten the markets go up so that's not a problem I think the mark of the professional investor is the ability to make money with risk under control again you can make money by abandoning risk and seven years out of ten or eight years out of ten that'll work great in the other two or three years not having risk control will really cause serious damage to be inflicted I think it's important to outperform the market when the market goes poorly if you establish your portfolio so that you will beat the market when it does poorly there's a decent chance that you can't beat it also when it does well you do better in the good years than you do badly in the bad years and by the way I don't think it's important to beat the market in the good years because everybody makes a lot of money but then substantially above average in the bad years the combination of the two will give you above average performance over the long run with below average volatility and risk contrarianism is very and basically what it consists of is understanding the excesses of investor psychology and number one not being part of them and number two taking advantage of them you know ninety percent of what you have to know about Market Behavior especially about short-term Market behavior is that in real life things fluctuate between pretty good and not so hot but in the market investors go from Flawless to hopeless and nothing's ever Flawless and nothing's ever hopeless and what that means simply is that when people think the Outlook is Flawless they're too optimistic and they're going to be disappointed so you want to turn cautious at that moment and when people think that the Outlook is hopeless things are never hopeless and when pessimism is overdone and people think the Outlook is is hopeless it's important to turn aggressive so we do modify our stance between aggressiveness and defensiveness but as I said we never get in and out of the markets that's really just too hard to do well if you look at a chart of GDP over the years it kind of looks like this it fluctuates slightly our GDP grows about two percent sometimes three sometimes one rarely minus one rarely four so the the fluctuations in the trends are modest now if you look at the trend in company profits it looks more like this the the fluctuations are more pronounced why is that companies are affected by the trends in the economy but they have leverage they have financial leverage and operating leverage what that means is that when sales go down two percent profits go down 20 Etc so profits fluctuate considerably more than GDP now if you look at chart of the stock market it goes like this it fluctuates wildly investing is taking an interest in companies profits why do the prices of Investments fluctuate so much more than company profits the answer is psychology and you know as I said before or investors go from flows to hopeless and hopeless to Flawless and they overdo the good news and they overdo the bad news you want to turn aggressive when everybody else is terrified and you really want to turn defensive when everybody else is Carefree but those opportunities don't come along very often we don't have profitable chances to do that very often most of the time we're straight down the middle and so why does everybody care about it so much and the answer is it's kind of like social media it's all around us people are talking about it all the time the newspapers talk about it the talking heads on TV talk about it and everybody gets on TV and they said well you think there's going to be a recession in six months no I don't think so yes I think the bad yeah not too bad but pretty bad this isn't what matters and people drive themselves nuts with these matters and they hurt their performance look at the markets today the markets are well down and everybody's afraid about what's going to happen in the next six months second level thinking really is a matter of understanding you have to think at a different level than other investors other investors on average are going to make nine if you want to make 10 instead you have to think of something they haven't thought of you have to know something they haven't thought of you have to think at a at a level which is different more sophisticated not easy and I have an English friend Richard Oldfield who wrote a book I love the title simple but not easy the first level thinker says this is a good company we should buy that security most people look at it and see the same thing but the second level thinker says it's a good company but it's not as good as everybody thinks so it's going to produce a disappointment we should sell their Securities you see and you're just thinking through to a new level you're thinking through to the ramifications of what everybody thinks it's simple to explain the goal it's not easy to do but that's why there are superior and inferior investors that's why some people have good long-term records and some people don't survive for the long term because it's not easy I would like each person who's listening to save themselves do you want to outperform or or are you happy with average performance it sounds kind of Un-American but I think in the long run average is really good enough and if you want to be above average which is a reasonable goal how will you do it and since this is a competitive activity you're competing against all the other investors out there and you want to have a better record than they do on average there has to be some advantage that you have so I would like the listener to say well what is my advantage and I think that to be a superior investor you have to have what I call a knowledge Advantage you have to either know facts that the other person doesn't know the goal is to make sure that everybody has the same information otherwise it's inside information which could be illegal so it's hard to get facts that the other person doesn't have on a given company or process them better so the people in the audience should say do I have some mental equipment that permits me to process the facts better and clearly in order to do that you have to be an expert is it reasonable for me to think I'm an expert it's great to have aspiration but your aspiration should be based on some reality which is I know something the other people don't know is that a realistic thing to say and if not you should you know either settle for average or turn over your Capital to somebody who does have a knowledge Advantage for management investing really comes out to two things fundamentals and attitudes or psychology fundamentals is the things that will happen in the economy the things that will happen in companies sales profits Etc but that's fundamentals and then you know that's what we have to think about is likely fundamental outcomes and the likely changes in Psychology if everybody knows that there's likely to be a recession within the next 24 months then that expectation is probably already reflected in security prices so you can't do any good by selling now I think we're in that middle range where everybody knows that some negative events May well lie ahead those negative events are already anticipated in security prices which just to say that security prices are fair rare reasonable given the Outlook when I think about the markets I think about are they Rich cheap fair if they're rich you should turn defensive if they're cheap you should turn aggressive if they're Fair steady as you go and that's where I think we are I think we're in that middle Fair territory today we have to live with the Russia and the threat of nukes in Ukraine which sounds terrible people say oh it's never been this bad but I remember when I was a kid in school we used to have what were called shelter drills we used to get under our desks when we were in the fourth grade and put our hands over our necks to protect ourselves from atom bombs so that was a scary time and people used to say you know it's never been this this uncertain and we've had great uncertainties over the years and today it feels like it's the most uncertain it's ever been but that's because we're in New Territory we have we have a an antagonist who seems irrational and he has nukes go back to 1920.
in the last 102 years the U.S for example just an example has had 17 recessions one Great Depression several small Wars two world wars uh well I guess one since 1920. lots of geopolitical uncertainty Etc and yet on average over the last 102 years the S P 500 for example has made over 10 a year on average and if you invested a dollar in 1920 I think you'd have eight thousand dollars today if there's nothing clever to do it's a mistake to try to be clever and most of the time in the markets there's nothing clever to do and that's especially true for for non-professionals the professionals rarely get it right non-professionals have an even lower chance of getting these timing decisions right and that's why they should set a portfolio and leave it alone if you aspire to hire returns you generally have to take more risk to get them doesn't mean you get them means they have a chance of getting everybody should think about what is the right level of risk for them and you know for People Like Us individuals in trying to figure out what is the right level of risk what you say is how old am I how many years do I have to retirement or or to live how many dependents do I have how does my wealth compare with what I'll need to get through in retirement how does my income compare to my needs is my income a multiple of what I need or is it am I barely making it if I make a mistake you know if I live through a down cycle do I have time to to recover from that down cycle and then importantly what is my attitude toward risk what is my level of intestinal fortitude how will I feel living with big ups and downs because you know if you have money to invest one of your important goals should be to be comfortable you should not have more risk than you can hopefully endure and this is hard stuff because there's no way to put all that stuff in a formula and come out with a risk position and then if you come out with a risk position there's no way to put that in a formula and come out with a portfolio all these things have to be done judgment by thoughtful people but if you think about it you say you know like I look at it myself of retirement age unfortunately I don't have to retire I like my work I have more money than I need on the other hand I'm a conservative person and I don't want to experience big ups and downs and since I have more than I need why should I take big risks to make even more that's the kind of dialogue that people should have internally couples should have with each other and people should have with their advisors
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