저자: BillAckman,DavidEinhorn · 외국인
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이 대담은 헤지펀드 매니저 빌 애크먼(Pershing Square)과 데이비드 아인혼(Greenlight Capital)이 2008년 금융위기 국면에서 시장가치평가(mark-to-market), 공매도의 역할, 신용부도스와프(CDS) 등을 논한 2023년 방송 재업로드 영상으로 보인다. 핵심 결론: 자막 기준 이 영상은 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측을 거의 담고 있지 않으며, 주로 과거 금융위기 사례와 투자 철학을 다룬다. 시장가치평가와 금융기관 리스크: 애크먼은 골드만삭스가 시장가치평가를 엄격히 적용해 큰 손실을 피했다고 평가했고, 유동성이 낮은 파생상품도 범위를 제시해 평가할 수 있다고 주장했다. 아인혼은 CDO 같은 복잡한 구조는 평가 모델의 정확성에 의존한다는 점을 지적했다. 금융위기 진행 상황: 제이미 다이먼의 '위기 85% 정리' 발언 등을 인용하며 아직 정리가 남았다는 견해가 나왔다. 다만 구체적 종목 가격 전망은 없다. 공매도에 대한 견해: 두 사람은 공매도 세력을 단순한 스캔들 생산자가 아닌 투자자로 본다고 말했다. 익명 게시판 주장보다 공개 발표·조사 이력이 있는 공매도 의견에 더 주목해야 한다는 기준을 제시했다. 엔론 사례와 베어스턴스·리먼 사례도 언급됐다. 베어스턴스 분석: 베어스턴스 주당 2달러 매각은 유동성 위기 성격이 컸으며, 자기자본 비율이 약 3%인 구조에서는 자산 가치의 작은 변동도 지급불능으로 이어질 수 있다고 설명됐다. CDS 전략: 2007년 당시 CDS를 통한 하락 베팅은 비용이 매우 낮았고, 폴슨 등의 사례가 언급됐다. 다만 기회가 줄었다는 견해도 나왔다. 출연자 전망: 애크먼은 2008년이 2000년보다 공매도가 어렵다고 보며 올해 공매도 전략을 언급했다. 또한 MBIA에 여전히 공매도 포지션을 유지한다고 밝혔고, 실적 발표(월요일)와 컨퍼런스콜에 주목하라고 했다. 타깃(Target) 관련: 애크먼은 타깃 지분을 약 10% 보유한다고 밝혔고, 실적이 다소 실망스러웠으며 월마트 대비 경쟁 우위 논쟁이 있다고 언급했다. 단기 분기 실적보다 장기 현금흐름 가치를 중시한다는 입장이다. 투자 철학: 두 사람은 거시 변수(금리, 유가)에 의존하지 않는 견고한 사업과 낮은 레버리지를 선호하며, 50% 할인된 가격 등 저평가를 찾는다고 밝혔다. 특정 섹터보다 개별 기업 분석을 강조했다. 리스크/조건: 2008년 당시 상황과 과거 발언 기준이며, 현재 시점의 시장 방향 예측으로 쓰기에는 부적합하다.
다듬은 글
activists investors facing Perpetual challenges convincing regulators and shareholders to face the facts we've got an expert on that subject with us an exclusive with hedge fund manager William Ackman he's managing partner Pershing Square Capital Management he joins us with guest host David Einhorn and if you ever wondered what the business show of record is it's bringing guys like Ackman on here that that did say it just about every day I think you come here on Squawk Box thank you for coming on thanks for having me we've been talking about um marking to Market in the bigger sense and and we should point out you're not you make a lot of money on the long side Wendy's he said he it was kind of cute because he said I just want to First just let everyone know it's at least two or three dollars long versus one dollar short you're you don't want to be labeled a short seller and would you say two or three dollars long for each one short or even more law uh first few years of our existence we made no money in the short side last year was a majority of our 100 of our profits came from Short Selling so it wasn't uh Wendy's or or stirring up things and on the long side of things last year we took a break from that last year my question now is and I thought of something else there but we we were wondering whether there's some smart people that say you don't need to Mark the market if you're going to hold these things to maturity there's no reason to go through all this pain and all these distressed sales with some of these companies if you just let things let things go and I came up with a 30-year Bond because I have to think slowly I was a stock broker I remember when rates went up that Bond was worth half as much but that's not coming to do for 30 years what if it's a five-year piece of paper do you really need to mark that to Market to be fair for a company uh sure I think Goldman Sachs is probably the best example of this but Goldman Sachs is risk management as far as I understand it comes from the fact that they very in a very disciplined way Mark to Market if something's coming to in a year they'll market it's a minute the trader says I can't get a mark for this Lloyd blankfein says okay fine sell 10 of it that's your mark I think that kind of discipline has helped Goldman Sachs avoid very significant losses no matter how illiquid something is I mean you can't Mark limited Partnerships Mark to Market can you sure you can you try to sell some try and sell 10 so any the most esoteric derivative can be marked a market I think the more esoteric it is you have to give some information on how you're calculating that market and I think you might want to give a range well that that then that's a problem then we still have a lot of work to do with financials at this point uh probably how far Jamie dimon says we're 75 80 85 done cleaning up this mess I mean maybe JP Morgan is I don't know about I mean AIG you know not that long ago said pretty close to being done um the problem is that when you've got a structure like a CDO where the underlying Assets in some cases are cdos and then underlying them are asset-backed securitizations and then underlying them are mortgages you know I think Buffett's you know made the comment that to understand a CDO you got to read 750 000 pages of perspectives that's one CDO a little difficult to figure out uh just on models that may or may not be accurate I think so let me go back to another I don't know if you saw our segment where we were talking about whether short sellers are scum or whether they're just investors and we decided that they were just investors on the long side I think and if you come in hype of stock you come and say wow what you know you remember some of these great story stocks of the past they've got technology Alchemists whatever the the cold fusion however you want to look at if you've touted long is it any different than trashing it short I think you know it's actually before I came on the show I was thinking uh about short selling generally you know maybe good advice to give a investor when should you listen to a short seller versus versus otherwise and I think you know if you go on a message board and there's some Anonymous guys saying this company's a garbage that's not good enough information but if someone gets up in front of uh someone gets up in front of a thousand people makes a 20 minute presentation you should pay attention Okay so we understand it works with Enron I got to keep going then if someone gets up in front of an audience and then after doing so uh gets investigated for doing so yeah still stay short you should pay attention and then if that person writes a book and commits a giveaway 100 of the profits you really should pay attention we're going to be watching ald today then because then it's going to be yeah because we've got we're certainly highlighting that um this morning the other the other point I was getting through what about like a bear Stearns or a Lehman where I mean was did Bear Stearns need to to be sold at two dollars a share or was that and did Lehman need to come close weren't some of those scurrilous untrue uh rumors that had been circulated by Short Selling uh I don't know what rumors were circulated by short sellers but I think bear Stearns came quite close to going out and I think had it not been rescued by JP Morgan unfortunately at the expense of of shareholders I mean you know one of the issues Bears turns you know perhaps bear Stearns could have been a little more disciplined about marketing to Market and thinking about what we heard is it wasn't a it was a liquidity uh problem not a solvency problem right two dollars is pretty close to uh to insolvency and when you got a 400 billion dollar balance sheet uh Rel Equity is three percent of your Capital very small changes in the value assets wipe out you know difference between solvency and insolvency well I just want to get from both of you well do you two know each other how long have you of each other and how long have you been friends I don't know about 12 12 years or so long time how did you first get to know each other I think we met on the subway platform seriously you're joking no it's true I meet the nicest people on subway knowing who each other was or just met blindly actually we were at a uh a lunch and we were both there we left and I happened to be engaged on the subway platform do you two have very similar thoughts about how how you go out and and deal with Wall Street I I don't I think we have um like I mean Bill's a phenomenal investor and I think though he has some different philosophies than I do and um he constructs his portfolio very differently than I do and uh his his returns are absolutely extraordinary it shows there's a lot of different ways to to go about things but he's a he's a fabulous investor David's my marketing advisor um his book publicist is this year by going short as well uh it's possible but I think we'll make more money alongside this year can you tell me the question can I ask why yeah uh I think it's more difficult to be short in 2008 than it was in 2000 because the markets are going to yeah we were able the way that we've been short principally has been buying credit default swaps which are these insurance policies and companies are faulting and in 2007 you basically could buy insurance on a company defaulting and pay almost nothing right so your downside was very very small you know Paulson you know made a Fortune This Way basically uh taking on a bet where the downside was very small you lose a couple percent of his portfolio in the upside he'd make 10 times well then that's it portfolio that sounds like it backs up with Jamie Dimas said that maybe we're 85 through the credit crunch maybe those opportunities are harder to come by I think those opportunities are harder to come back what about the people that would have made money if bear Stearns defaulted should they be unhappy no no I think they got they they bought they put the the money out for the credit defaults but they never got paid off though I think that's the risk you take that someone's going to come in and totally change the games and of the absolutely I mean I know the problem with I think if you were 100 sure you'd only want the world to come to an end I mean right what's good about being a long short is that you can still be you want good things to happen for America and uh not not be concerned in what areas are you long yeah we want to find out things that you're doing before you're going to do them and unfortunately those are the things that my that we told you that we couldn't talk about them you said we could ask anything that you get to decide what you there's no yeah that's fair you can ask me whatever you want which things you definitely not want us to ask you about today that's an excellent question even I don't know those are the ideas I want to know the things that would really get you to go well I'm not going anywhere near that please try all right how about mbia where are you on that delighted to chat about all right so where what's your position now we actually don't comment on precise uh what we're longer what we're short we but we are still short mvia and we we still have the same views I mean MBI is announcing earnings on Monday I encourage you to pay attention um I think it will be quite an interesting conference call uh you know we've historically not been allowed to be on the nbia conference call one of the things I think you should look for is a sign for companies that you don't want to own or when they don't allow when they restrict the people that can go on the collective that was where my last question came from you're did you find out which conference you can be on the conference call I want to know which questions you definitely won't answer um you know I'm going to put out a list of questions publicly and I'll be happy to send it to CNBC questions you would have for mbia the conference room or on the conference call and I'd be I'd be delighted for you to ask them on the air and I think that would be a very good way to do it overall do you do you ever think tops down um what we do is we look for businesses where we think they're not likely to be materially affected by extrinsic facts you know interest rates go up up or down a couple hundred basis points if oil prices go up 25 a barrel we try to find very robust stable businesses generally very modestly levered and as a result we don't need to think particularly top down we don't need to think about exactly where interest rates are going to be for us to do well and then we look for a big discount if we can buy something for 50 cents on the dollar yes Target is going to be weaker in a difficult economic environment Where Are You On Target now we're a big believer your latest filing was was where latest filing we own just under 10 of the company in terms of beneficial ownership and more than that you know well economic ownership so we're big Believers and we're 13d file or if that were to change we'd have to file yesterday Target was was a little disappointing especially when you look at what Walmart did there are a lot of people who think Walmart is getting the upper hand on target after a long time of playing second fiddle I think that we don't think really month to month or quarter to quarter I mean the value of a business is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over 50 years you know the next year is worth more in that calculation than a year 50 year out but one of the things I find interesting about retail stocks for example is that no one wants to own retail stocks if we're in a recession going into recession but if you if a business is worth the present value the cash you take out over 50 years you're going to have seven recessions why does it really matter you know you should think more about what you're paying versus what the business is worth as opposed to what you're paying versus what they're going to earn next quarter those parameters you gave us for what what makes an attractive investment are there even though you don't do top-down are there sectors that that offer that that uh you don't have to mention names but are there sectors that offer that type of uh criteria there were less of a sector Focus we focus on things on individual companies the things we can understand and I think that's the important
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