저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 시프는 금이 4,000달러 부근에서 지지를 받고 있으며 올해 안 되면 내년에 6,000달러까지 간다고 본다. 은은 60달러 이하면 좋은 매수 구간이라고 강조한다. 금 가격 전망: 금은 4,000달러 부근에서 바닥을 다지고 있으며 이것이 새로운 기반(base)이 될 수 있다고 한다. 5,000달러를 다시 시도할 것이고 그 고점을 넘어설 것으로 확신한다. 올해가 아니면 내년에 6,000달러 도달이 가능성이 높다는 입장이다. 여러 투자은행의 목표가도 비슷하다고 언급했다. 은 가격 전망: 은은 2년간 30달러 근처에 머물다 50달러를 돌파해 120달러까지 급등했고 과열되었다는 평가다. 50달러는 과거 저항선이었으며 다시 50달러 아래로 떨어질 가능성은 낮다고 본다. 60달러 이하는 좋은 매수 기회이며 지금 60달러 중반 부근이라 약간 비싸게 살 수는 있어도 더 크게 오를 것으로 본다. 은의 흐름이 매우 강하다고 평가한다. 금 하락 요인 분석: 이란 전쟁 전 중동 긴장으로 금 매수세가 붙었으나 전쟁 발발 시 '소문에 사고 사실에 팔아라' 원리로 조정이 시작됐다. 케빈 워시 연준 의장의 매파 발언 이후 시장이 금리 인하 기대에서 인상 기대로 바뀌었고 달러 강세도 금에 압력을 줬다. 그러나 이는 매수 기회라는 입장이다. 연준 및 금리 전망: 연준이 금리를 올리지 못하거나 첫 인상조차 하지 못하는 점, 대차대조표가 여전히 확대되고 통화량이 늘어나는 점을 금 상승의 촉매로 본다. 시장이 기대하는 금리 인하는 실제로 일어나기 어렵고, 설령 일어나더라도 인플레이션이 더 높은 상태에서 이뤄져 실질금리는 더 낮아질 것이라고 주장한다. 폴 볼커식 긴축으로 금을 짓누르는 일은 일어나지 않을 것이라고 본다. 실질금리와 인플레이션: 실질금리가 명목금리보다 중요하며 인플레이션이 금리를 앞서면 현금과 채권 같은 확정수익 자산의 실질 가치가 줄어든다고 설명한다. 장기적으로 이 잠식이 단기 변동성보다 부의 손실을 크게 만든다는 입장이다. 금의 장기 성과와 실질수익률의 관계를 강조했다. 중립/리스크: 시장이 중앙은행 발언에만 반응하면 지지선에서 매도하는 실수를 한다고 경고했다. 중앙은행의 금 보유 비중이 낮아 금 수요가 커질 여지가 있다고 봤다. 다만 금이 이미 많이 오른 뒤 심리가 극단적으로 부정적이라 단기 변동성은 존재한다. 기타: 시프는 금과 은 외에도 거의 모든 것이 더 비싸질 것이라고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
Gold is currently meeting serious support in the 4000 area . If not this year, then next year gold will cost $6,000. I think silver and its dynamics look very confident. It's unlikely that silver will fall to 50, but I doubt anyone will be able to buy it for less than 50 again . I think anything below 60 is probably a pretty good price to buy silver.
The Fed's failure to raise rates, or even the first hike, could be a catalyst. Why didn't they raise the stakes at the first meeting if they were so determined? Why is the balance sheet still expanding? Why is the money supply increasing? Bitcoin has somewhat overshadowed gold and taken some of the attention away from it.
There are many negative campaigns against gold. This could have affected potential buyers who, you know, don't see the real value. You know, I do n't hear people say, "Well, gold is useless. "Gold, you know, is just perception." Central banks have a very low percentage of their reserves in gold. There is currently no great demand for gold as a reserve asset.
I think demand is growing because central banks are not investing enough in gold. They have too much fiat money on their balance sheets. We rocketed up, then fell back down with a thud . I think that really undermined the enthusiasm or the positive sentiment that was in the gold market at the end of that rally.
And I believe that we have returned to the same negative sentiment that defined the entire market up until that point. People are very negative about gold right now, but it has obviously run ahead. Silver broke out above 50 and went to 120, after sitting around 30 for a couple of years. So it overheated.
I think all the noise in the Persian Gulf on the eve of the war with Iran—it was obvious that something was going to happen. This also fueled interest in buying gold. Therefore, it had rapid growth. And when the war began, the principle of " buy on rumors, sell on facts" came into play, because this had already been taken into account.
And this started the correction. And then we heard supposedly “ hawkish” comments from Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chairman, about how aggressively they would fight to get back to 2% inflation. Um, and now the market, you could say, has switched from expecting two or three rate cuts to expecting two or three rate increases.
This also put significant pressure on gold. Markets have reacted to the headlines, but institutional positioning tells a much less obvious story. Peter Schiff notes that sentiment has changed dramatically, but emotional swings often peak when prices have already adjusted to geopolitical risks. Investors who chase central bank rhetoric rather than liquidity conditions often sell assets at support levels, missing opportunities.
Peter Schiff goes on to explain why the market's confidence in aggressive monetary tightening may be at odds with what policymakers can realistically deliver. This also pushed the dollar up. Um, now you know, I think it just created a good buying opportunity. I believe the market is pricing in rate cuts that are unlikely to actually happen.
And even if they do happen , it will be with inflation much higher than the current one. So the real rates will actually be lower. And the real stakes are much more important. In fact, in many cases, nominal rates don't matter. Real rates are all that matters. And so real rates will be much lower, even if the Fed raises nominal rates a little.
So, I think the idea that we're going to crush gold with tight monetary policy like under Paul Volcker is not going to happen. You know, I think we're headed for a significant increase in the price of gold. The question is, when will this consolidation end? Gold is currently finding serious support around 4000.
It trades just below this level, but not by much, and then turns back up. So, this could be a new base. We couldn't secure the base at 5,000, but we had a base at 3,000, a base at 2,000. 4,000 looks like a pretty solid base, and we'll make another push to 5,000, and I'm confident we'll surpass that high.
If not this year, then next year we will see gold at $6,000. I think this is a fairly likely course of events. Yes, many investment banks essentially have the same price target. If inflation remains high and interest rates lag behind it, purchasing power imperceptibly decreases, even as markets celebrate.
According to Peter Schiff, real interest rates weigh much more heavily than policy announcements because they determine whether wealth is actually being preserved. When inflation outpaces interest rates, cash and fixed-income savings lose value in real terms, even if the nominal return looks positive.
Over the long term, this gradual erosion can have a greater impact on wealth than short-term market volatility. This is why many long-term investors pay more attention to real returns than to individual betting decisions. They argue that preserving purchasing power ultimately depends on whether returns exceed inflation, not simply on the level of interest rates.
This is the distinction that many investors ignore , focusing on every phrase the Fed says. Peter Schiff goes on to reveal an overlooked relationship between real returns and gold's long-term performance, something Wall Street rarely emphasizes. Come on, let's just assume that 4000 is the new base, like you said.
I would be happy with this as a sort of launching pad for further price records. And do you see the same thing with silver? Yes, I think the dynamics of silver look very strong. I mean, silver is unlikely to go back to 50. I think that was resistance from the 20th and from 1980 to 2021, and it really hung over the market for a long time.
And when we finally got over it, we just jumped a lot. But I doubt people will have a chance to buy below 50 again. I think anything below 60 is probably a pretty good buy for silver. You know, it's a little bit above 60 again now, but I mean it was trading, I think the lowest I saw it was around 56 something.
But I don't expect silver to go back below 50. I think that would be too good a buying opportunity for those who missed it. So, I think if you're going to buy, you're going to have to overpay a little. But I think it's heading much higher. And it's not just gold and silver . You know, almost everything will become more expensive. I mean,
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