저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 헤드앤숄더 패턴이 완성되면 59,000 하향 이탈 시 0 근처까지 하락 가능하다며 보유 매도를 권고. 금리 상승과 국채 가격 하락을 강조하고, 미 국채 매입(Operation Twist) 확대에도 금리가 상승한 점을 지적. 주가지수는 주간 약 1%대 하락, 금은 금리 상승과 외국 중앙은행의 달러·국채 매도 흐름 속에서 상승 여력이 있다고 주장. 채권은 실질 금리가 마이너스라 장기 보유 시 손실이 크다고 설명. 후반부는 금 기반 토큰화 자산을 긍정적으로 언급.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin still appears to be forming a large-scale head and shoulders pattern. But the pattern is not yet complete, so it is not a head and shoulders until it forms. Because it often happens, you know, that the " head and shoulders" don't come true. People expect them in advance and get burned. But the most interesting thing about this potential figure is where it points.
You know, in the case of the "head and shoulders" you need to measure the movement. You take the top of the " head" and look at the distance to the " neckline". If we break through the neckline, the predicted movement will be equal to this same distance. That is, you drop below the neckline by the same amount as your head rose above it.
The problem is that if you apply this to Bitcoin, you get a negative number. Of course, Bitcoin cannot fall below zero, but that means that if the pattern completes and we break the neckline, let's say below 59,000. We break through that line, and if we complete the head and shoulders, then Bitcoin is headed to zero.
This is scary, and that's why if you have Bitcoin, you should get rid of it now because of rising bond yields, because it's not just about today's events. Bond yields have been rising almost all week, which is exactly what I predicted. I said on this podcast that rates are going up, bonds are going down, and that's exactly what's happening.
The stock market simply didn't pay attention to it. But, you know, someday they won't be able to ignore it anymore. I think one of the reasons they ignored it is that the stakes are still low. They have risen from very low levels to values that are still low in the grand scheme of things, but they are not low given our debt levels.
But at some point the stakes will rise high enough for it to become important. You know, markets can ignore bad news for a long time and then react sharply. A classic example is 1987, when interest rates rose all year long, the dollar fell, the trade deficit grew, and the markets continued to rise as if there were no problems.
And then suddenly there was a collapse. So yeah, I don't know if there will be a crash this time, but the point is that markets are eventually waking up to what they've been turning a blind eye to. And, you know, one of the reasons people are waking up in the bond markets is because the Treasury sounded the alarm with its " Operation Twist." And again, as I predicted, yields are higher now than they were when the government announced its plan to buy Treasury bonds to contain yields.
Profitability still increased. I said it would happen. I said that what they were buying wasn't enough and they would buy more, which they did. Now they have tripled the buyback from 2 billion, now they are at 6 billion. They started with 4 and upgraded to 6. But that's still not enough to make a difference.
But what it does do is alert people that there is cause for concern. Like, hey, wait a minute. Uh, the Treasury is worried about the bond market, maybe I should be worried too. Maybe I should sell these things. And yes , this is a wake-up call. And I told you it would happen. But, in any case, the Dow rose today, but still fell 1% for the week.
So, and I think that rising yields, and, you know, rising oil prices, those two things are going hand in hand right now . Broad equity indices reflect growing market exhaustion, with declines in major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000. The rapid rise in oil prices is adding to inflationary pressures, creating challenging conditions for equities.
Gold continues to fluctuate in volatile trading , occasionally exceeding key technical levels before pulling back. However, the traditional thesis that high bond yields reduce the attractiveness of gold ignores a critical structural shift. Institutional capital and foreign central banks are reducing treasury holdings and directing capital into tangible assets such as gold to hedge against negative real returns and long-term currency depreciation.
Er, weakness in the market. Same with the S&P 500 overall, up about 8 tenths of a percent today, uh, but down a little over 1% for the week. The NASDAQ made a bigger move today, rising 1%, but is still down 1% for the week. So, practically across the entire spectrum, the index fell by a percentage point over the week.
Uh, the Russell 2000, a bit of an exception, not such a big rebound today, up half a percent, so down 1.7% for the week. Gold uh really went up today, about 35 bucks. It didn't hold that $100 profit throughout the day. We got back above 4400 during the day but didn't close there. Uh, it closed somewhere around 4338, something like that.
Minus about one and a half percent per week. Again, gold traders are wrong about this. And that's probably because that's how they programmed their trading algorithms. But a bearish bond market is a positive for gold. Loss of confidence in the US Treasury. Fear of higher inflation. All of this works in favor of gold.
Foreign central banks are getting out of US dollars and selling US Treasury bonds. What do they buy with this money? They buy gold. So the idea that you should sell gold because other investors are selling their bonds is false. And the fact that bonds offer higher yields does not diminish the appeal of gold , but rather adds to it, especially since the yield is still not enough to cover inflation.
Yields still remain negative in real terms. So why buy them? And the longer you hold the bonds, the more you lose. These were the worst ten years for bonds in the last hundred years, as I said. Well, it's been a great decade for gold, and the last couple of years have been even better. The ten-year bond bear market highlights the structural vulnerability of holding long-term debt during inflationary cycles.
Financial markets are increasingly recognizing physical precious metals as reliable stores of value. In addition to traditional bullion, the financial ecosystem is evolving towards tokenized gold on distributed ledgers, combining physical reserves with modern transaction technologies. Unlike speculative cryptoassets that face serious technical reversal patterns, such as the head and shoulders, which predict sharp downward corrections, gold-backed tokens aim to restore real monetary utility , functioning as a proven store of wealth and an efficient medium of exchange in global trade.
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