저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 관세는 무역적자 축소 목표를 달성하지 못했고 수입과 적자는 역대 최고 수준이다. 8월 무역적자는 1056억 달러로 예상치 상단을 넘었고 7월분도 상향 수정됐다(월간 기준 사상 최악급). S&P500 내 약 60%가 고점 대비 20% 이상 하락한 약세장 상태이며 지수만 소수 대형주로 신고가를 기록했다. 미 10년물 금리 5.28%, 30년물 5.66%로 고금리가 유지되며 부채 의존 중소기업의 취약성이 커지고 있다. 제목상 금값 15만 달러 확신을 주장한다.
다듬은 글
The purpose of the tariffs was to reduce the trade deficit. That's exactly why they exist. They exist because Trump has identified these trade deficits as a big problem, instead of understanding them as a consequence of the problem. But his solution, uh, to cancer was to put a band-aid on it in the form of tariffs.
The tariffs were supposed to make imports more expensive and as a result force Americans to buy domestically, or encourage businesses to bring back manufacturing, or reshoring, whatever they call it, bringing manufacturing back, rebuilding our supply chains and infrastructure. We were going to do things here again.
This is what these tariffs were supposed to lead to. Well , that didn't happen . In fact, imports and trade deficits have reached all-time highs. This applies not only to capital goods, the total volume of imports in August was at a record high. So we are importing more than ever, despite the tariffs.
So the tariffs didn't do their job. They managed to increase the cost of imports, but this did not reduce the volume of purchases. After hovering around all-time highs, both the S&P and Nasdaq not only set new intraday records today, er, but also closed at record levels. You can't say that about the Dow and, of course, the Russell 2000.
And, of course, the average share in the S&P 500 is not even close to a record high. I talked about the market coverage issues, uh, I think, in my last podcast, or two podcasts ago , about how about 60% of the S&P 500 is technically in a bear market, down, uh, more than 20% from its highs. But, apparently, the market was pushed again today by the same " suspects".
Although the coverage situation was actually a little better during the day. It seems like about 69% of stocks are up today. Uh, so we had a little more participants. Partly because we got a small pullback in interest rates. I wouldn't get too excited about it. Bond yields fell slightly. Actually, I'll check what level they are at now.
The yield on 10- year US Treasury bonds is 5.28. And we were reaching level 5. 35 last week, I think, or on Monday, maybe Monday morning. And the yield on 30- year bonds is 5.66. So, you know, we barely, uh, pulled back from the highs, but that could have been part of the reason why stocks were able to move higher today.
Although rising bond yields did not hold back overall averages too much. Fixed income markets continue to exert structural pressure on the financial landscape, even as stock indices temporarily ignore these tensions. Base borrowing costs remain high : the 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 5.28% after testing the 5.35% mark, and the 30-year bond yield is 5.66%.
Small daily yield pullbacks provide short-term relief to stock prices, but higher long-term interest rates have yet to trigger a major pullback in mega-cap indices. However, this macroeconomic resilience masks the growing vulnerabilities of smaller, debt-sensitive corporations that lack the massive balance sheets and cash reserves of market leaders.
So we don't really need relief when there was no pain, except for stocks that aren't among the top companies that are hitting their highs. This came despite the bad news that emerged earlier today. At least bad news, from my perspective, and from the way everyone should view it. But no one really cares.
We received data on the trade deficit for August. Last time on the podcast, I talked about the merchandise trade deficit. Today we have an overall trade deficit , which includes the goods deficit, but it is smaller because America has a surplus in services. However, this service surplus is nowhere near large enough to compensate for the massive shortage of goods.
So , the forecast for the August trade deficit was $99 billion. And the figure came out at 105.6 billion. That is, significantly higher than forecasts. In fact, above the upper limit of the range of estimates, which ranged from a minimum of 83.8 billion to a maximum of 103 billion. So, we have exceeded the upper limit.
And, to make matters worse, they revised upwards the trade deficit for July: from the reported 88.6 billion to 92.8 billion. Of course, all of this will subtract something from our GDP for the quarter , since the trade deficit is subtracted from the overall figure . But what's most problematic about this deficit is that it's the fifth- largest monthly trade deficit in history.
But if we discard some anomalous indicators. So this is actually the worst monthly trade deficit in US history, as the only four months that were larger than this were the first three months of 2025. Of course , mostly during Trump's term. I discussed this in a past podcast, but it was all a preemptive move because of tariffs.
Importers rushed their imports to avoid the new tariffs. And as a result, after the day of liberalization, when tariffs took effect, Fixed Income Markets continue to exert structural pressure on the financial landscape, even though stock indices temporarily ignore this tension. Base borrowing costs remain high : the 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 5.28% after testing the 5.35% mark, and the 30-year bond yield is 5.66%.
Moderate daily yield pullbacks are providing short-term relief to stock prices, but higher long-term interest rates have yet to cause significant declines in mega- cap indices. However, this macroeconomic resilience masks growing vulnerabilities for smaller, debt-dependent corporations that lack the huge balance sheets and cash reserves of market leaders.
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