Peter Schiff : If You Own SILVER, You Need to See This NOW! Silver Price Predictions

요약 보기

금 가격은 장기 상승 추세가 이어질 것으로 보며, 은은 $50 저항선 돌파 후 지지선으로 전환됐다고 주장한다. $60대 매수가 리스크 대비 수익이 좋다고 보고, 은이 $125 이상으로 갈 것으로 예상한다. 국채 금리 상승과 소버린 부채 위기 우려가 인플레이션을 유발해 금에 유리하다고 본다. 반면 미국 주택시장은 모기지 금리 상승과 비용 증가로 침체될 것으로 전망한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I think gold prices will continue to rise. They have been growing for 100 years. Why would they stop? They won't stop. I mean, they will continue to grow. Silver, you know, looks really interesting to me because it just broke a massive double top, because silver hit $50 in 1981, and then in 2011 it couldn't even get to $50 before it fell below $ 20.

02. And then finally, at the end of last year, it broke out, and when it got above $50, it immediately went up to $125. So we really broke through resistance and now we've partially pulled back, but we've never gone down to $50. So to me, it's a perfect technical development, because what was resistance has now become support.

03. In fact, we can't even get back to the support level. No one can buy silver for $50 anymore. You might get a chance at 59 or 58, but no one has been able to buy silver at 50 since it crossed the 50 mark. So I think 50 is really a support level. You probably won't see a price tag of $50. Not that it's impossible, but I think the odds of you seeing $50 are lower than the odds of you not seeing it, which means buying now around $60 is very good from a risk- reward perspective.

04. You have about $10 of downside risk and at least $70 of potential upside just to get to the previous high, you know, at $60. So, I think silver will go above $125 an ounce. I don't think this is a peak and that silver will never be more expensive than this. I believe it will be much more expensive than that.

05. So I think it's worth buying. And I think this is a pause that is refreshing the market, and I think it is laying the groundwork for another big pullback, especially as the potential sovereign debt crisis develops. Because investors are now seeing rising bond yields as a problem for gold, as a headwind.

06. In fact, this is an advantage, a tailwind . Because if there is a sovereign debt crisis, where do you go? How...where do you hide from this? You are going for gold. If you are getting rid of US Treasury bonds and want an alternative safe haven, there are almost no choices left. Well, it's the same thing , I think, if you're European and you're worried about what's happening in the eurozone, worried about France or other countries, what will you buy, right?

07. Why buy a dollar? Because we have our own problems. We have treasury bonds and debt problems. So gold is the last safe haven left . And if we end up with high inflation as a solution to the debt problem, well , that's in gold's favor. I mean, gold thrives precisely because of inflation. Gold's long-term uptrend may continue, but the analyst believes silver offers a particularly interesting opportunity.

08. Silver has broken through a significant resistance level near $50 that has held back its price for decades. After a sharp rise to $125 and a pullback, it has remained above this former resistance level, suggesting that $50 may now act as support. The analyst sees the recent drop as a pause before another potential rally, when silver could break beyond $125.

09. He also argues that rising bond yields could ultimately benefit gold if concerns about sovereign debt increase. If governments rely on inflation to manage their debt obligations, gold could become an increasingly attractive haven for investors seeking protection against currency and financial risks.

10. Therefore, rising interest rates, caused by falling bond prices, are the most likely catalyst for higher inflation. Because they force the central bank to print more money. Both to stimulate the economy, if they want to do so, because high interest rates are depressing the economy, and because they are forced to buy bonds that no one else wants to buy, because if the Fed stayed on the sidelines, yields would be so high that the government would be unable to pay.

11. The housing sector has big problems. The financial sector, banks have big problems. Well, the housing market in America is dead. Well, mortgage rates are 7.5%, and a couple of years ago they were 3%. But today prices are higher than they were a couple of years ago. So how, how, how can anyone afford to buy these houses?

12. They are not rated for a mortgage at 7.5%. They are rated for mortgages at 3%. In fact, I think by the beginning of next year, a fixed rate mortgage will be at 9 %. So, you triple your mortgage rates. I mean, house prices would have to drop by 50% for monthly payments to remain the same. But it's not just about mortgage rates.

13. Insurance has become significantly more expensive. Utilities have become significantly more expensive. As well as maintenance costs , property taxes. Therefore, people cannot afford to buy a home. So, the entire housing industry is dead. You can't build houses. You can't build houses that no one can afford to buy.

14. And the cost of construction has increased. Tariffs made construction more expensive. Plus inflation affected construction and labor costs , you know, we closed the border. Perfectly. Criminals don't come in, but many of the people who crossed the border worked in construction. So, um, you know, your construction costs are higher.

15. So I think the housing industry will be depressed. I think there will be few homes for sale, so real estate jobs will disappear, and no one will refinance their mortgages. How can I refinance my mortgage? So, those jobs disappeared. Um, but also what no one seems to be talking about except me is the lack of a safety net that incentivized the consumer.

16. And it was a serial refinancing with cash withdrawals. For 40 years, we have had mortgage rate declines and property price increases in this country. And that provided every homeowner with , you know, a lifeline if there were any problems. Because if they accumulated too much credit card debt, um, you know, they ran out of money, you had an ATM in your house.

17. All you had to do was refinance, take out some cash, maybe 25k, maybe 50k, but your new mortgage payment was actually lower than your old one because you refinanced at a lower rate. So, not only did you put money in your pocket, but you also received more money each month thanks to a lower mortgage.

18. So, this fueled consumption. And of course, this made the consumer feel richer because his house continued to increase in value. The interest rates we have now at 5% are lower than they were in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. THERE ARE...