저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준의 금리 인상이 인플레이션을 잡지 못한다고 보며, 금 가격이 5,600에서 4,300으로 조정받은 지금이 매수 기회라고 주장. 은도 최고점 대비 절반 수준이라 저가 매수 구간으로 봄. 채권은 1980~2020년 40년 강세장이 끝나고 약세장 진입, 금리가 0%에서 16%까지 오르는 데 10년 정도 걸릴 수 있다고 전망. 금리 상승이 기업 부채 차환과 소비자 상환 부담을 키워 기업 이익과 주식에 부담이 된다고 봄.
다듬은 글
I mean, people should be buying more gold right now. We saw a pretty good pullback from the highs. You know, we reached 5,600, and now we're down to just over 4,300. So I think this is a good dip to buy. I think 4000 is the support level right now. So you're still closer to the bottom than if you were looking at the old highs as resistance, but ultimately I think we're going to go much higher.
Silver is worth about $64. This is approximately half of the maximum it reached in February-March . So I think this is a great pullback to buy. I think mining companies are still attractive. No, that won't solve the problem at all. In fact, this will only exacerbate the problem, as these higher interest rates will become costs that will be passed on to consumers.
You know, a business passes on its interest costs just like it passes on the costs of raw materials, labor, and everything else that is part of the production process. No, the problem is in credit, because inflation is also an expansion of credit. And while the Fed has been raising rates, they haven't raised them enough to slow credit growth.
Lending expanded, and it continued to grow all the while the Fed raised rates, which proves that the increases were not enough. What we really need to do to reduce inflation is to cause a net reduction in lending. People need to start saving money again, not spending it. And this also applies to the government.
The Fed should tighten monetary policy enough to force the government to cut spending. But all the while the Fed was raising rates, government spending continued to rise. So, we had an expansionary fiscal policy; Even if you say the Fed tightened monetary policy, we loosened fiscal policy. We provided stimulus to demand in the economy at a time when the Fed was supposedly trying to curb demand by raising rates.
So no, these small, sluggish quarter- point rate increases won't change anything. And as long as the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet, which it is doing, creating more money and stimulating lending, inflation will only get worse. It will not decrease. And you know, bonds are currently in a long-term bear market.
We had a “bull” bond market that lasted from 1980 to 2020. It was a 40-year bull market, and the yield on the 10- year Treasury bond went from over 16%—or, I think, a little under 16%—in 10 years. Fell from just under 16% to less than 1%. The 10-year Treasury bond was at 60 basis points, you know, at its lowest point.
All this has changed. And I—and I said it then. I thought : this is it. This is a big final splash. This is the end of the "bull" bond market. Welcome to the " bear" bond market. And now we are in it. We are in a " bear" market. Profitability has been growing for 6 years. But if this " bear" market lasts as long as the previous " bull" one, we are still in the early stages.
We're still... It was a 40- year bull market. If this is a 40- year bear market—although usually bear markets are faster. So, if it took 40 years for yields to go from 16% to 0%, it will probably take 10 years to go from 0% to 16%, and we are already 6 years into the process. So there may not be that many of them.
The bond market could collapse completely. We could see a crash in the bond market. Profitability can simply skyrocket. So, And you said that in your video. Yes, sorry. Yes, I said that the Fed could now panic and try to prevent this by printing money on a massive scale, but that would again add fuel to the fire, because it only increases inflation and destroys any trust anyone might still have in the dollar.
Bonds are where the real story lies. Treasury yields have fallen for four straight decades, from nearly 16% in 1980 to about 60 basis points at the 2020 low. This was the final peak of the longest- running bond bull market in history. The turnaround that followed has been going on for 6 years. And if history is any indication, it may only be half- complete.
Bear markets usually move faster than the growth they offset. A ten-year journey back to double-digit profitability is not something incredible. The greater danger lies in the chaos when profitability skyrockets and there are no natural buyers. I think that as long as bond yields were relatively low, perhaps moving from, say, 2% to 4% or from 3% to 5%, yields remained low, and in real terms, even negative, especially if you consider the real rate of inflation, not the government's figures.
So it's likely that the stock market could ignore the rise in yields when they were rising from such a low base. But I think at some point, maybe it will be an increase from 5% to 6 %. Maybe 6% to 7% or whatever, but at some point it has to play a big role, because stocks are a function of the present value of future earnings, discounted at the level of interest rates.
And obviously, the short-term rate is more important in this function, but stocks also compete with bonds. And, you know, the higher the yield becomes, the more often people may decide to redirect some of their funds from stocks to bonds. But also, if lending is indeed contracting due to higher rates, that will also impact corporate earnings to the extent that companies have a lot of debt that is maturing now and needs to be refinanced at these higher rates.
And to the extent that corporations have taken on a lot of cheap, low- yielding debt and are now forced to refinance it at a much higher rate, it reduces their cash flow, and they now have less money to purchase goods and services from other companies. So profits can decline because companies are forced to spend money on interest and have no money left for other things.
And consumers too. You know, your customers. If their mortgage rates are recalculated, if credit card interest rates are higher, if they have car loans—they have less money. I mean, we have so much debt that interest is very, very important. And if the housing bubble bursts and homeowners lose all their equity, that will also have a big impact on their spending, and it will have a big impact on the banks, who are now stuck with all this foreclosed real estate that has a negative value compared to the amount of the loans.
Comments 0