저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 마법공식(Magic Formula) 투자법은 자기자본이익률(ROIC)과 이익수익률(PER 역수)로 저평가 우량주를 찾는 정량 전략으로, 과거 성과는 우수했으나 최근 10년은 가치주 부진으로 저조했다. 전략 개요: 그린블랫의 책 'The Little Book That Beats the Market'에서 제시된 방법으로, 효율성(ROIC)과 밸류에이션(이익수익률)이라는 두 요소로 종목을 평가한다. 성과 근거: 2004년 책 집필 시점까지 마법공식 포트폴리오는 연 33%, S&P500은 연 14% 수익률을 기록했다고 언급. 다만 가치주가 성장주 대비 과거 최대폭으로 부진했던 최근 10년 동안은 전략도 시장을 하회했다. 실행 방법: 마법공식 스크리너(magicformulainvesting.com)에서 상위 30~50개 종목을 뽑아 동일 비중으로 매수하고 연 1회 리밸런싱하는 것이 원전략. 진행자는 50종목 관리의 부담과 사업 이해 부족을 이유로 이를 그대로 따르지 않고, 스크리너를 출발점으로 삼는다고 밝힘. 추가 점검 방법: 스크리너 결과에서 ROIC가 과거 대비 하락 추세인 기업(가치 함정 가능성)을 걸러내기 위해 과거 PER 범위와 ROIC 추이를 확인해야 한다는 주장. 사례(바이오젠, BIIB): 2007년 대비 주당순이익이 크게 성장했고 PER은 약 8배로 과거 최저 수준(2008년 최저 11배)에 근접, ROIC는 2010년 약 10~12%에서 2020년 약 32%로 상승 추세라고 설명. 버크셔해서웨이 보유 종목이라 관심 대상이나, 진행자 본인은 바이오텍 선호도가 높지 않아 투자 가능성은 낮다고 언급. 리스크: 전략은 장기간 시장을 하회할 수 있으며, 개별 종목 선정에서 사업 이해와 가치 함정 구별이 필수. 영상은 특정 종목 매수 권유가 아니라 분석 방법 소개임을 전제로 함. 출연자 전망: 마법공식 전략의 장기 유효성에 대한 긍정적 시각을 보였으나, 단기 언더퍼폼 가능성을 인정함.
다듬은 글
'm going to be talking about one of the methods that i use to be able to find undervalued stock and this is an easy to understand method and this method actually comes with an updated list to be able to find these stocks at any time so in this video what we're going to be doing is talking about what this method is it's performance in the past and why it works so well and then some other factors i like to look at to increase my chance of higher return so the strategy i'm talking about is magic formula investing and for anyone who's never heard of this this is a strategy created by jewel greenblatt who is one of the most successful investors in the world and in his book the little book that beats the market he talks about the magic formula investing and why it works so well for finding undervalued stock and i'll put a link to that book down in the description if you haven't read it but right now we're going to talk about a quick overview of what this is so in his book joel greenblatt says you really only need two qualities in a company to make it an attractive stock to buy those qualities are efficiency and valuation and so joel greenblatt developed a quantitative formula to be able to measure stocks based on these two factors the first factor that joel greenblatt takes into account is the stocks return on invested capital and what this measures is how effectively these companies are generating earnings from their assets the return on invested capital is a measure of how well the management team can take what they already have in the business and measures how well they're able to reinvest it to grow profits consistently and this is a very important thing for a company because if you're investing in a company you want them to have a high return on invested capital so they'll keep growing their profits and the share price will rise accordingly but that's not all because even with a high return on invested capital a stock might not be a good investment if it's so overpriced that it doesn't matter how efficient they are if the price doesn't match up with the fundamentals so the second factor joel greenbelt looks at is the valuation of the company and he does this through the earnings yield so the earnings yield is just the inverse of the p e ratio so if a stock has a p e ratio of five the earnings yield would be one over five or twenty percent and what this measures is the valuation of the company so if you have a twenty percent earnings yield that means every year you'd be earning twenty percent of your investment and this is a great strategy because joule greenblatt argues that these are really the only two things you need to find stocks that will outperform the market if you have a company that's being very efficiently run and is available to buy at a low valuation these are the two key ingredients for stocks that will outperform the stock market and so since this is a quantitative strategy what joel greenblatt suggests in the book is that you find a list of these stocks and you put an equal amount of money into all of the portfolio which would be a portfolio of around 20 to 30 stocks and you rebalance every year and by doing this he argues that you can outperform the market and there is data to back this up where here are the returns of the magic formula investing strategy up until 2004 when the book was written and if you look at the returns the magic formula strategy performed very well over doubling the normal market return so the s p 500 from this period returned an average of 14 a year but if you use the magic formula portfolio you'd return 33 a year which is more than double the s p 500 and so obviously just because the strategy outperformed during this time period doesn't mean it will always outperform the market when you use this strategy it mainly focuses on what are considered value stocks and if you're someone who's followed the stock market you know that value stocks have been underperforming growth stocks by their largest amount ever over the past decade and because of that this strategy has underperformed for the past decade so that is an important thing to realize as well where even though there is a good chance that this strategy will outperform over time there will be periods where it will underperform the market as with pretty much any other strategy out there all right so now we can get to how to actually implement this strategy and thanks to joel greenblatt it's extremely simple he made a website called magicformulainvesting.com and if you head over to that website they have a free screener that will let you filter for these stocks and these stocks are graded based on those two metrics return on invested capital and earnings yield and so right now on their stock screener and you can choose either 30 stocks or 50 stocks i chose 50 just to have a larger number and when you screen for these 50 stocks the screener will find the 50 stocks that have the greatest combination of return on invested capital and earnings yield and so we can take a look at those right now here are the list of stocks that are out there here are the list of stocks that are the most attractive for the magic formula investing strategy and i also like how you can play around with this you can choose minimum market cap so right now it's 50 million so it will include some smaller type companies you could increase this to really whatever you want if you want to focus on only large cap stocks so this is definitely something you can play around with and here is the list of 50 stocks so according to joel greenblatt if you want to follow step by step the strategy in his book he suggests what you do is that you put an equal amount of money into all 50 of these stocks and then you rebalance at the end of the year based on the performance now this isn't something i would do first because 50 stocks is a lot i would not want to stay on top of 50 stocks in my portfolio and secondly when i buy a stock i want to understand what the actual business is with a quantitative strategy like this you're really just putting money into names based on a screener without really knowing anything about the underlying business so even though i wouldn't follow the step-by-step strategy of putting an equal amount of money into all these stocks what i do use this resource for is having a starting list of companies that i know are efficient and undervalued and then taking a deeper look into some of these individual companies to see if there's any that i have a good understanding of and that i think will outperform over time and i think one of the easiest ways to check these companies to see you know if they really are undervalued and are poised to go up or if they're sort of a value trap where they look undervalued but the business fundamentals are actually deteriorating and by buying these stocks you'd be catching a falling knife so the first thing i like to do when i find a list of these stock is to look at the median valuation that these companies have been trading at and how their return on invested capital has changed over the years because even though a return on invested capital may be high why which is why it's showing up on the screener it might have been decreasing over the past number of years suggesting that the business is becoming less efficient and even though the earnings yield could be low this company may have predictions for earnings decreases in the future which is not something that i want so i want to filter these out manually and so that is the next step i take in this process so i'll show you an example and how i like to do this so for just for an example we'll take biogen which is ticker biib this is a stock that berkshire hathaway owns so let's take that stock and see how i can measure these two qualities over time to see if the business fundamentals are improving or if they're struggling so the way i like to do this is a website called macrotrends.net and this is a great resource because it shows you a bunch of historical information about companies so what i like to do is check the two criteria that are in the magic formula investing strategy and see how they've held up over the history of this company so the first one is earnings yield and the way we're going to look at that is the p e ratio what i want to do is look at how the valuation for this company has changed over time and seeing if this is an attractive place to buy based on what it's been valued at in the past so we can scroll down here and here is the information for biogen so on the top we have the stock price the middle is the earnings per share and then finally on the bottom is the p e ratio and so the first thing that jumps out to me is that this is a company that has very consistent earnings growth where we can take a look the earnings per share back in 2007 were 1.69 cents and right now they're at 34 so this is a company that's seen massive growth over the past decade now another thing for the stock is the p e ratio right now they're trading at around an eight times earnings multiple and if you look at history this is actually one of the lowest valuations they've ever traded at where if you look at this period from around 2012 to 2018 they've been trading at 20 times earnings 14 times earnings 28 times earnings all the way up to over 30 times earnings and if you look at the last big recession we had which was back in 2008 the lowest valuation they traded at was actually 11 times earnings so right now you can actually pick up this company for a cheaper valuation than they were trading at in 2010 and it doesn't seem like the business is slowing down at all in fact over the last few years the earnings per share seem to be increasing at a faster pace so this is a very encouraging sign when you see earnings increasing but the valuation staying low now the second thing we're going to look at is the return on invested capital and see if that has changed over time as well so we can come back up we can go to other ratios i believe it's in and here we go we can look at roi which is return on investment and so here we go again the first row is their net income second row is their investments in debt and then we get the calculated return on investment and as you can see this is also a number that has stayed very consistent and is actually increasing so for return on investment you want that to be high because the higher the return on investment is the more efficient this company is at reinvesting their profits and so this is actually very interesting how the return on investment has actually been increasing where back in 2010 you're looking at around a 10 to 12 percent return on investment but this has actually steadily been increasing and right now in 2020 we're at 32 return on investment which is one of the best you're going to find anywhere and so for me this checks both boxes where you see where first we saw earnings increasing and the valuation being lower than all the other times in this company's history and then we also see in terms of business quality the return on investment has been increasing which means that this company is becoming more efficient as they make more money and so not all companies on the magic formula list are going to be like this some of them will have a return on invested capital that seems high but when you actually go look it's lower than it's been in that for that company in the past and same with the earnings yield it might seem low but in terms of the company's history it might actually be high so this is just an extra step that i like to take to look at the companies in the magic formula investing list to sort of filter out companies that are on the way out because in that screener you're going to get a lot of companies that seem good but the their businesses are really on the decline and that's really what you want to filter out and so just by taking this simple step looking at how the return on investment and earnings deal have changed over time really gives you a better picture of how these companies are performing and so just from what i saw in these two things here i actually think biogen is a very interesting investment opportunity it's also interesting because i know berkshire hathaway owns them and so this is a name that i might take a closer look at i probably won't invest in them because i'm not a huge fan of biotech stocks but this company definitely checks all the boxes in terms of very consistent earnings growth return on investment increasing very steadily over the past decade and one of the lowest evaluations you could have ever bought this company at in the past 10 to 20 years so that's it for this video just wanted to make a quick outline of the strategy and how i use it to find undervalued stocks if you learned something from this video hit the like button as it helps out my channel a ton and if you're new to my channel subscribe right now and hit the bell icon to get notified whenever i upload a new video and thanks for watching so i'll see you on the next video you
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