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ARKK ETF 상위 10개 종목을 가치투자 관점에서 점검한 영상으로, 결론은 대부분 매수 비추천이며 가격이 낮아지면 관심을 가져볼 만한 종목이 일부 있다는 것이다. 진행자는 ARKK를 미래 혁신기업 중심의 성장주 펀드로 보며, 자신은 가치투자자라 대부분 기업에 매력을 느끼지 않는다고 밝힌다. 테슬라: 최근 12개월 주당 -0.87달러 적자, 내년 예상 EPS 11.62달러로 흑자 전환 기대. 선행 PER 71로 매우 고평가, 부채비율 1.5, 유동비율 1.2. 835달러에서는 매수 비추천(엄지 아래), 낮은 가격 대기. 스퀘어(블록): 흑자 기업, 향후 5년 이익 성장률 31%, 무부채 기간 있음, 유동비율 2.2. 다만 PER 175로 고평가, 주가 약 80달러는 고점 부근. 40달러 아래로 내려오면 매수 고려(조건부 긍정). 아이오닉/유전자 관련 기업(Invitae 추정): 12개월 주당 -3.14달러 적자, 5년 이익성장 8%로 흑자 전환 어려움, 내부자 매도 지속. 어떤 가격에도 투자 비추천. CRISPR Therapeutics: 현재 무부채, 유동비율 16으로 재무 탄탄하나 내년 주당 -5.20달러 적자 예상, 주가순매출 13배로 고평가. 35달러 근처였던 3월 수준까지 내려오면 흥미롭다는 입장. 유텔(TWO 추정, 교육기술): 12개월 주당 -4.34달러 적자, 5년 이익성장 25%로 흑자 가능성 있음. 부채 관리 양호. 36달러대 매수 비추천, 15달러 아래면 검토 대상. Illumina: 영업이익률·순이익률 20% 수준, 매출총이익률 70%로 수익성 우수, 부채비율 0.25. 다만 PER 57·선행 PER 47로 고평가, 300달러 초과는 매수 안 함, 200달러 수준이면 더 자세히 검토. Proto Labs: 무부채, 유동비율 4.5, 이익 성장 25%, 매출총이익률 50%로 우수하나 PER 54로 고평가. 3월 60달러 수준이 흥미로운 가격대라고 언급. Zillow: 적자 지속, 흑자 시기 불확실하여 가격과 무관하게 투자 비추천. Roku: 아직 흑자 아님, 현금 소진 중, 유동비율 2.6으로 재무는 양호하나 고평가이며 장기 스트리밍 지배력에 확신 없어 비추천. Stratasys: 12개월 적자이나 내년 흑자 전환 예상, 이익 성장 20%, 유동비율 3.9, 무부채. 그러나 선행 PER 140으로 가격이 크게 떨어지지 않으면 투자 안 함. 흑자 확인 후 판단하는 관망 입장. 전체적으로 진행자는 ARKK 포트폴리오에 적자 기업이 많아 장기적 관점에서 일부 우량 종목이 좋은 수익을 낼 수 있다고 보며, 시청자에게 보유 종목과 ETF 투자 의향에 대해 댓글을 요청한다. ※ 이 영상은 2020년 6월 기준 개별 종목 밸류에이션 분석으로, 대상 자산 목록의 종목에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
hi everyone welcome to investing club in this video I'm going to go over Kathy woods portfolio from arc invest the ticker for this ETF is AR KK and Cathy wood is becoming more and more popular as a fund manager who invests in these up-and-coming innovation companies and there has been a lot of popularity around some of the company she is investing in so in this video I'm gonna go through her ten largest holdings and talk about my thoughts on them and right off the bat I know I'm not gonna like all out of the company she's investing in why because I am a value investor and the companies that Cathy wood is investing in are the companies of the future right not today so what does that mean well these companies are likely to be losing a lot of money and are likely to have a lot of debt to things that I don't like when analyzing the company so I do know that I'm not going to find a lot of these companies attractive right off the bat but what I will do in this video is go through your top ten holdings and take a look at their profitability and their financial health and then decide if I like the stock or not so here are Cathy woods top ten holdings I will put a picture up on the screen right now and I will go in order so the first one is Tesla and Tesla is around 10% of her portfolio and so here is Tesla the website I'm on right now is fin biz it will be the first link down in the description and I use this website a lot because it really gives the big picture on a company all in one spot where you get a ton of this financial information so I would definitely check out that website if you haven't already so now let's take a look at the numbers of Tesla so if you're watching this video you most likely know what Tesla is they make electric cars and Elon Musk is the CEO and there's a few things that jump out to me when I look at Tesla they have yet to have a full year of profitability in the last 12 months they've lost 87 cents a share but they are expected to become profitable this year for next year their earnings are expected to be eleven dollars and 62 cents a share so analysts are expecting a big jump to profitability for Tesla next year I don't necessarily see that happening I'd rather take a wait-and-see approach to see if they actually become profitable before I would invest in Tesla but their sales have been growing at 50% a year extremely fast even though their price of free cash flow ratio is high they have generated some free cash flow which is very encouraging if you are a shareholder of Tesla now their gross margin is 18% that's actually not bad and their operating margin is under 3% which which is to be expected they are a car company you know they make cars they are in a very capital intensive industry and so with that you're not usually going to see these huge margins their forward p/e ratio is 71 I think the big thing here is even if they make eleven dollars and sixty two cents in earnings per share next year you are paying seventy one years in advance for their earnings so you have to understand if you're paying for Tesla at this price you are pricing in extreme growth over the next decade which could happen very well but it is definitely something to think about when you are paying a forward p/e of 71 even for a company that's been growing as fast as Tesla is an extremely high valuation now in terms of their financial situation their debt is their debt to equity is a 1.5 that's not it's not the worst obviously they have a lot of debt they're a car company so you need to take on a lot of debt to be able to build out the infrastructure that a company like Tesla needs but I don't think they would have a problem raising more money if they needed to their current ratio is a 1.2 so that does concern me a little bit if we see a period right now where their sales drop off a little bit then this could put them in a tough situation in the short term financially but again I think they would be able to raise money so what do I think about Tesla well at $835 for me Tesla is definitely not a buy to buy Tesla right now you would have to have extreme faith in the company and Elon Musk that they would be able to grow the company extremely fast over the next decade to justify this high valuation and so I would probably never invest in Tesla anyway if I was going to start buying into Tesla I would definitely wait for a lower price so this stock gets the thumbs down for me at the current price so Tesla gets a thumbs down from me just because of the current price it is trading at the next stalk is square square is 7.5 percent of her portfolio where is the payment service that I'm sure a lot of you have used has become very popular in the last few years and Square is definitely an interesting pick they are profitable which is something I definitely like to see in a company like this it's really important to me to have some proof that you can become profitable and over the next five years squares earnings are expected to grow at 31 percent a year so this is still an extremely fast grower their ROI and roee are both very high which is a very encouraging sign and their gross margins are huge at almost 40% for the financial health of square their long-term debt to equity is 0.97 so they do have some long-term debt but in the short term they have their debt equity is a zero so this company has no debt for the next few years and their current ratio is a 2.2 so this company is well prepared financially to handle any sort of downturn in the economy where they wouldn't be making as much money now that being said this company is extremely overvalued right now in my opinion their p/e is 175 which to me it doesn't matter what company it is I would never pay that valuation for a company therefore p/e is a little lower at 87 but again way too high and so taking a look right now they're currently trading at $80 which is around their all-time high so I would not pay this price for square however if we saw this company revisit the lows that I had in March at under $40 that is where it gets intriguing to me this is a company that I actually would buy because they have already become profitable and they have a clear sustainable competitive advantage that they will be able to continue growing at a high rate for a number of years so this is a company that I am interested in but the price is simply way too high right now and I would not consider buying unless it was under $40 and so for me this stock gets a thumbs up but not at this price so this is a stock I would buy but the price is too high right now the third stock is envy take or ticker Envy ta and this company is in the industry of genetics and DNA so definitely a very innovative company in an industry that looks very promising for the future now this company has been losing a ton of money in the last 12 months they've lost $3 and 14 cents per share and next year that's expected to drop a little bit but it's still very negative so this company is nowhere close to making a profit in my opinion over the next five years their earnings are expected to grow at 8% so at this rate they're not going to become profitable in the next five years this company did generate 240 million in sales last year so price to sales is an 8 point 91 so I would definitely compare this to other companies in the space to see if that is a fair valuation or not for this company in terms of their financial health they have a good current ratio so in the short term they are fine however they do have a lot of debt in the medium and long term and so this is something I would be concerned about if this company can't break a profit because they're gonna need money to pay off that debt at some point and if they can't become profitable in the next 5 years that would be a little concerning for me and another thing I want to point to is all of the insider trading going on on this company and it is not a pretty picture since July 13th of last year all of the insider trading has been insider selling and this has been happening consistently for the last year or so and so this is definitely not something I like to see there usually if there's a few insider sells here and there it's not a big deal but when you see such consistent selling like this and no insider buying over the past year that is definitely not an encouraging sign so just based on these things this company definitely gets a thumbs down from me I would not invest in this company there's really no price that would make this an attractive investment to me now the next stock on Cathy woods portfolio is CRISPR therapeutics ticker crsp and CRISPR is a gene editing company that uses the CRISPR technology in an attempt to edit DNA so again this is a super cool company in a very innovative industry that has a bright future so taking a look at this company in the past 12 months they were profitable however next year they're expected to lose 5 dollars and 20 cents so this is a company that's not yet consistently profitable and they have no earnings growth estimate so the odds are that this company will not become consistently profitable for quite a while their prices sales is also out of 13 which makes this company very highly value now this company is in a excellent spot financially their current ratio is a 16 and they have absolutely no debt so this company is loaded up on cash and short-term assets and they have no debt so that is the great thing about this company that they don't have to be profitable and they really have no fears of running out of money this company is clearly in a great financial position that will allow them to focus on investing in their company to be able to become profitable eventually now that being said would I buy at these prices absolutely not I think this company is way overvalued right now and not too long ago in March under $35 a share so I'll give this one the little shrug emoji you know could be interesting if it got down to a low enough price but right now definitely I would not consider buying this stock all right the next stock in Kathy woods portfolio is to you Inc ticker TW oh you and this one sits at around 5% of her portfolio and this stock is an education technology company and that operates all over the world and so what do I think this company lost a ton of money in the past twelve months they've lost $4 and 34 cents per share and next year that is expected to drop a lot and their earnings are expected to grow at 25% over the next five years so this company looks like it has a good chance at becoming profitable in the next five years they have a current ratio of 1.4 and their debt is 0.37 which is all long-term debt so not too concerned about the debt in the short term again if we see some sort of slowdown in the global economy then this stock could be in a little trouble in the short term but overall it looks like the management of this company has been very efficient in taking on a very manageable amount of debt for this company now in March this company was almost at $10 and right now it's at over $36 so I would not buy this company at these prices however if it did get down to under $15 this is definitely a one I would take a look at so this one is a thumbs up but not at this price the next stock is Illumina ticker ilm N and this one makes up around 5% of the portfolio and this company is involved in genetic and genomic analysis now this is probably the best company I've seen on this list so far they are very profitable and expected to keep growing their earnings at 10% so this is a profitable company which I like their margins are huge gross margin 70% in operating margin and profit margin both in the 20% so this is a company that makes huge margins on the products they sell in terms of financial health this company is in an excellent position that currently shows over a four and their debt equity is 0.25 so this company is in a very good position financially and they are profitable and expected to keep growing those earnings now that being said this company is overvalued right now their p/e is a 57 and forward p/e is a 47 so I would not be paying these high prices for a company like this this company Marx's company has ran up huge it's almost doubled and so I definitely not be paying over $300 for this company if it did drop to the $200 level then I would definitely take a closer look because there I think things start to get attractive with this company so I'll give this one a thumbs up but not at this price I would have to wait for a lower drop to around $200 to begin buying this company 7 stock on this list is proto labs ticker P R lb and proto labs is a 3d printing company again another innovative industry that is expected to grow a lot in the coming year so this company is profitable which I definitely like to see and their earnings per share are expected to grow at 25% so this is a very fast grower they have good returns on investment and returns on equity both in the double digits so this looks like a company that is very well managed their gross margin is 50% and they have decent operating and profit margins and their current ratio is a 4.5 and they have no debt so this company is obviously very well managed they have no debt and they are making good returns on investment in on equity and they are making very large margins and are still expected to grow at 25% year so this is definitely an intriguing company to me now that being said they are most likely overvalued right now the p/e is a 54 and so I would not pay a 54 p/e for this company back in March they were out around $60 a share and again at that price is where things start to get more interesting for me so that is where I would start taking a closer look at this company I'll give the stock a thumbs up but not at these prices the next stock is Zillow ticker symbol Z this one makes up around 4.6 percent of the portfolio and Zillow of course is the real estate company Zillow is not profitable and doesn't have a p/e ratio they're making no free cash flow not taking a look at Yahoo Finance this company does have a larger amount of current assets compared to the current liability so they are in a pretty good financial position and in all honestly I don't know when Zillow will become profitable and if they will become profitable so for that reason this company gets a thumbs down from me I would probably not invest in Zillow regardless of what the price is now the next stock on this portfolio is roku ticker are ok you and this company is in the TV and streaming industry so this company isn't profitable yet a burning bunch of cash and their current ratios a 2.6 so they're in a good financial position they have a pretty conservative amount of debt and this company is just plain overvalued right now Roku is probably when I would never invest in that's because I don't really believe in their company and I really don't believe they'll be the dominant player in streaming for the long term so for this reason Roku gets a thumbs down I would not be investing in Roku and the last stock making up only 3.7 3 percent of the portfolio is stratasys ticker ssy s and stratasys is a computer hardware company so first off they lost money in the past 12 months but they are expected to be profitable next year so that is an encouraging sign and their earnings are expected to grow at 20% year so this is a very fast grower expected to become profitable in the next year now again that being said when I see companies like this I'd always rather take a wait-and-see approach and wait for them to become profitable because a lot of the times the analyst estimates are wrong for these unprofitable companies where their earnings are harder to predict now that being said they are in an excellent financial position current ratios are three point nine and they have no debt so again with this company pretty much just a waiting game they have no concern of running out of money or being in any financial troubles the thing for me is just waiting to see them become profitable before I would consider investing in them in the four p/e is 140 so even if they make 13 cents a share next year still extremely overvalued so I'm gonna have to give this company a thumbs down because even if they become profitable this stock price would have to tank for me to even consider investing in the company at this valuation is simply way too expensive for me and it probably won't ever get down to a price where I would be comfortable investing so for that reason this one gets a thumbs down and that is it for the ten stocks in our canvas portfolio the ticker for this ETF is AR KK and overall I am actually pretty surprised they work some pretty good companies in here again a lot of them are not profitable and probably won't be for a while and that's what I expected but there are a couple good picks in here that our profitable and could turn out to provide an excellent return over the long term so that's it for this video let me know what you think about these stocks if you own any of them if you would invest in this ETF comment down below and I will see you on the next video you
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