저자: InvestingClub진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 버크셔해서웨이는 저평가 구간이라 볼 여지가 있으나, 현 시장 밸류에이션과 리스크를 감안해 발언자 본인은 지금 매수하지 않고 현금을 보유하겠다는 입장이다. [워런 버핏의 3분기 매수 동향] 뱅크오브아메리카 지분을 20억 달러 추가 매수해 버크셔의 2대 보유 종목으로 올라섰고, 웰스파고 등 다른 은행 지분은 정리해 은행주를 BAC로 집중했다. 스노우플레이크 IPO에도 참여했으며, 일본 5대 종합상사 투자와 금광 기업 배릭골드 지분 매입도 언급됐다. [자사주 매입의 의미] 3분기 자사주 매입은 90억 달러로 역대 연간 최대 수준이다. 2020년 누적 매입은 160억 달러다. 버핏·멍거가 주가가 내재가치보다 낮다고 판단할 때 매입한다는 버크셔 연차보고서 원칙을 근거로, 주가순자산비율 1.2배 이하를 저평가 기준으로 제시했다. 3분기 주가는 약 20% 상승해 S&P500(8.5%)을 상회했다. [진행자의 투자 판단] 버크셔는 약 1.3~1.4배 PBR로 현 시장 대비 공정가치 수준이며, 시장 전반은 과열로 본다. 따라서 기대수익이 시장 평균(연 8~10%)을 크게 웃돌지 않으면 매수하지 않겠다고 밝혔다. 대신 큐뮬러스미디어, 뱅코ZK 등 2~5년 내 대폭 상승 여력이 있는 종목을 선호한다고 언급했다. 현금 약 1,450억 달러 보유에 대해서는 대규모 시장 급락이 없으면 활용이 어렵다고 봤다. [리스크·조건] 시장 전반의 높은 밸류에이션과 경기 리스크, 현금 활용 지연에 따른 주주 불만이 주요 리스크다. 버크셔 주가가 크게 하락하면 재검토하겠다는 조건부 입장이다. [출연자 전망] 버크셔는 장기적으로 견고한 매수 후보이나, 단기 매수 타이밍은 아니라는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone welcome back to the channel in this video we're going to talk about what warren buffett and brookshire hathaway bought in the third quarter the third quarter just ended last month and i think taking a look at what he does each quarter gives us a great insight into how warren buffett sees the stock market right now where the opportunities are and where he puts his own money gives us a pretty good sense of what he thinks is undervalued so what we're gonna do is take a look at the kind of stocks that they bought in the third quarter and what insights we can get from that so be sure to watch the entire video to get the full picture of what warren buffett sees in the stock market right now so headline of this article warren buffett spent billions on stocks in quarter three if we take a look at specifically what he bought first thing he spent two billion more increasing the bank of america position and so this is more of the same that we saw in the second quarter where warren buffett sold out of some of the other banks he owned like wells fargo and he pretty much just consolidated his banking holdings into just bank of america so berkshire hathaway now owns 12 percent of the entire bank that's only they have to get permission from the fed to be able to do that and so bank of america is now brickshare hathaway's second largest investment in their stock portfolio that's behind apple so apple is the largest holding second now is bank of america the second thing they bought was the snowflake ipo this is i made a video talking about snow the snowflake ipo and if you should invest in them and in that video i talked about how even though berkshire hathaway bought in they were able to buy in before the ipo happen and because of that they were able to get in at a much lower price than when the stock opened for trading and instantly doubled so that's why the value of this investment has roughly doubled since the stock jumped up over 100 on their ipo day and so that's why a large company like berkshire has the advantage over the retail investor in ipos like that since they're usually able to get in at below the price that the stock actually begins trading at another thing they bought was they berkshire hathaway took an interest in the five japanese trading companies and this was an interesting move considering i think it's the first time that he's invested in japan i think this one's very interesting if you combine this with the fact that berkshire hathaway bought into a gold mining company barrett gold i think this is sort of giving you the picture that warren buffett wants to diversify outside of the u.s where if you take a look at the warren buffett indicator which he says is the most important metric to seeing how overvalued the stock market is right the market cap to gdp you can see that that's at all time highs right now and so because of that warren buffett probably isn't interested in spending in investing in the u.s stock market considering how overvalued it is instead he wants to invest in other economies like japan and buy some things like gold stocks however that isn't the biggest purchase of quarter three the biggest thing that warren buffett did in uh quarter three was buy back his own stock from berkshire hathaway we can take a look at this article from bloomberg berkshire hathaway spent the third quarter buying back nine billion of its own stock more than it has repurchased in any year in history so in total 2020 berkshire hathaway spent 16 billion in stock buybacks which is just an insane amount to think about and this is the most cash berkshire hathaway's ever spent in one year and even just looking at the third quarter just the third quarter alone the nine billion in buybacks is more than as repurchased in any full year in its history so that's sending you a message and that's telling you something what that is we'll get to later in this video but it's very clear that berkshire hathaway and warren buffett wants to put a lot of cash into their own stock right now so we can take a look at this chart showing the share buyback since 2018 again ramped up like crazy this year um the largest amount ever in a year for the company even in quarter four of last year quarter one of this year uh before the entire shutdown the buybacks were starting to ramp up so this chipped away at the cash position a little bit i think earlier this year the cash position was over 160 billion right now it's 145 billion so it has dropped a little bit but still a ton of cash that berkshire hathaway is holding to be able to deploy into more investments in the future now again if we take a look at why they bought backstock warren buffett is very clear for the reasons he buys back stock so this is from their 2019 annual report and they have a section specifically talking about share buyback and so in this section they say berkshire will buy back stock only if charlie munger and him think that the stock is selling for less than it's worth and secondly the company after the repurchases still has enough cash and so that's definitely the case for the second factor 145 billion definitely enough cash on the balance sheet and so really the question is does warren buffett think that his own stock brookshire hathaway is undervalued if he does that's when he'll start loading up on the buyback and i think specifically what he said in the past is that if berkshire hathaway is trading at 1.2 times book value or less that's when he considers it undervalued and that's when he will start buying back stock aggressively and i think it hit just about that level earlier this year and so as we've seen a huge purchase of stock buyback you know when this is happening when we're seeing a record amount of share repurchases that tells you that warren buffett one of the greatest investors in the world thinks that his own company is extremely undervalued and i think they're sending a very strong message just from the amount of buybacks they're doing that they really don't see a better opportunity in the market for berkshire hathaway compared to just buying back its own stock now as we'll see the share repurchases did have a positive impact on the stock price where berkshire stock climbed 20 in the third quarter compared to just eight and a half percent for the s p 500 and so we take a look at specifically what happened um in the third quarter started in june and ended up september so if we go from that point we can see that we can we can see that over 18 increase in the third quarter and again the main result of this was from the buybacks and so this is a monster quarter for berkshire hathaway stock again 18 that's more than you're usually gonna get in a year holding this company so just to get that in one quarter shows how share repurchases can help the stock price and again this is showing you that um you know at the end of the quarter was around 327 000 at the beginning of the quarter was around 275 000 and this is for the class a shares so you know warren buffett's telling you around and you know take an average around 300 000 for the stock is a fair price to be paying for berkshire hathaway i think that's 300 for the class b shares so i think when one of the best investors in the world is buying a company that he knows better than anyone else because it is his own company you know you can be sure that he's pretty confident that the stock price will be a lot higher in the future than it is right now now that being said berkshire hathaway is undervalued and i'm someone that likes to buy undervalued stock so am i buying berkshire hathaway right now and the answer is no i'm not and that is for a couple of reasons the first thing is that berkshire hathaway probably is uh you know slightly undervalued but they're not at the level of valuation that i would need to invest in a new company right now where berkshire hathaway is trading at probably now it's probably 1.3 1.4 times book value and so again that's around fair value for the company which is not something you can say for most of the other stocks out there right now which are insanely overvalued berkshire hathaway i will say is fairly valued for the underlying company now the problem is i see a lot of risks in the stock market right now just based on where the economy is what the level of valuation is risks going forward and because of that i'm holding a lot of cash in my portfolio and i'm only willing to invest that cash if i think i can generate superior returns to um you know the index average eight percent nine percent ten percent i wanna beat that by a larger amount per year and unless i have that margin of safety where i'm expecting insanely high returns i'm probably not going to invest in a stock right now i'll probably just wait it out until we see lower valuations at some point in the future and so because of that even though berkshire hathaway i think is a solid buy right now if you buy and hold you're probably gonna get the normal you know eight nine ten percent a year going forward that's not the type of returns that i'm looking for especially in this type of market environment where with the risk you're taking on by investing and so because of that these prices i would not buy berkshire hathaway instead i'm only saving my cash for companies that i think could make a huge return in the next few years like for me cumulus media which i think can go up four to five times in the next two or three years you know banko zk which i think will more than double in the next five years companies like that where i think the level of valuation is so low that the stocks really have nowhere to go but up and so that's why i wouldn't buy berkshire hathaway at these prices now if we did see the stock fall off a cliff then i would revisit this obviously but at these prices i think there's better opportunities out there now the second problem with investing in berkshire hathaway right now and this is something that a lot of investors in the company have been pressuring warren buffett to do is that they want to see them use the cash that's on the balance sheet right they have 140 billion in cash that's just sitting there and the longer it sits there the worse it is for investors because investors are expecting the company to do something with that cash to be able to grow it over time and so they don't like to see a huge pile of cash sitting there for years on end but the problem is warren buffett buys stocks when they're undervalued and right now the stock market is an all-time high valuation so because of that warren buffett's not going to be buying into companies with that cash right now instead he's going to wait until there's a lower valuation in the future regardless if that's one year from now or five years from now and so because of that you know i don't expect berkshire hathaway right now to be able to do anything with that cash to grow it at a meaningful rate you know that's another reason why i would be hesitant to buy this company now and i don't think that cash is going to be used for anything unless we see a huge drop in the stock market even worse than what we saw in march because remember in the march stock market crash berkshire hathaway wasn't really buying much either so it would have to be worse than that for warren buffett to start deploying that cash and so while i think there is a chance of that situation happening in the future um you know if that did happen i'd revisit this company because then they'd be able to use that cash in a manner that would help investors and shareholders so as of right now i'm just personally waiting it out for this company now the second problem is that just the level of cash that berkshire hathaway has their investing universe is now so much smaller than it was in the past for the company so here's a list of the 50 largest american companies in terms of market cap and remember retro hatho is holding around 150 billion in cash so if you take a look at you know the 50 largest companies we have some massive companies on here if we go down to you know the bottom of this list we could take a look a lot of these largest companies are trading under that 150 billion market cap so we can take a look at a stock like mcdonald's which is 161 billion that's how much cash berkshire hathaway has at the beginning of this year so to think that berkshire could just completely buy out mcdonald's with cash is just insane to think about that's how much cash they're really holding on the balance sheet and the problem with them now is they're holding so much cash that even though yeah they can do a lot of smaller deals to be able to move the needle for the company they're going to have to put a large percentage of that money to work warren buffett's been saying he's looking for that elephant to invest in that massive deal that he's been waiting for you know 10 plus years to be able to invest in and so because of that this is really the investing universe for berkshire hathaway right now it's these 50 companies really which are you know the most likely that he'll invest in at some point because they're large enough that significant buying in from berkshire hathaway won't just send the stock price going straight up so again because of that until we see a number of these companies fall a significant amount i'm not expecting them to invest that cash anytime soon and again until that happens i'm not super interested in investing in brickfire hathaway so that's it for this video let me know if you're someone that owns berkshire hathaway stock down in the comments and if you're not talk about some of the reasons why you don't own them so that's it for this video going over berkshire hathaway and warren buffett's third quarter buys if you found value out of this video hit the like button to help out the channel this is your first time here subscribe to see more videos like this so that's it for now and i'll see you next time you
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