저자: 미상 · 외국인
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BMY CVR(조건부 가치권리) 투자 기회를 소개하는 영상이다. 결론: 3배 수익 가능성이 있는 특수 상황 투자로, 대형 펀드가 진입하기 어려워 가격이 저평가되어 있다고 주장. CVR 구조: 브리스톨마이어스스퀴브와 셀진 합병(2019)에서 파생된 CVR로, 3개 신약이 2021년 1분기 말까지 FDA 승인을 받으면 9달러, 아니면 0달러. 주가와 무관하게 신약 승인 진행에만 연동. 진행 상황: 첫 번째 약 오자미노드는 2020년 3월 승인되어 현재 가격은 약 3달러(가치의 약 1/3). 근거: 두 번째 약은 승인 확률이 약 88%이며, 최근 FDA 공장 실사 관련 트윗이 승인 진행을 시사. 세 번째 약은 불확실성이 크며 CVR 발행 측 보완 자료 요구(refuse to file)가 있었음. 직원들이 다수 보유하고 있어 회사가 승인을 지연시킬 유인이 낮다는 점도 언급. 가격 흐름: 2020년 5월 약 4.5달러 고점 후 9월 약 2달러 저점까지 하락세. 가격 전망: 올해 말까지 6달러 가능성, 두 번째 약 승인과 세 번째 약 진척 시 7~8달러 가능성 제시. 출연자 행동: 발언자는 아직 매수하지 않았으나 고려 중이며, 매수 시 소액 포지션을 권유. 승인 실패 시 0달러 위험이 있어 리스크가 크다고 명시. 리스크: 2021년 3월 말 결과에 따라 0달러 또는 9달러로 귀결되는 이진(binary) 구조, 팬데믹으로 인한 FDA 실사 지연, 세 번째 약 승인 실패 시 즉시 0달러 하락 가능성. 시장 상관성: 주식시장 전체 흐름과 무관하며 FDA 승인 진행에만 의존한다고 강조. 투자 조언: 영상 내용은 투자 권유가 아니며 자체 조사가 필요하다고 명시.
다듬은 글
want to talk about an opportunity in the stock market that could bring you 3x returns just in a couple of months and this is a pretty unique opportunity in the stock market that i haven't seen anyone else on youtube talk about so stay tuned if you want to get the full picture of the stock and why i think there is potential for 300 returns in just a couple of months so this is an opportunity that was created from the merger of bristol meyer squibb and celgene and these trade under bmy bmyrt so the bristol meyer squib cvr was the result of the merger between bristol myers and celgene back in 2019 and as a result of that merger we saw a spin-off of the cvr which is the contingent value right and this is one of those special situation investments where you know the cvr isn't a normal everyday uh you know thing that's traded on the stock market only it usually only arises in these merger situations and mostly with biotech companies so what the cvr is is a contingent value right that is worth a certain value if a number of conditions are met and in the case of the bristol meyer squib cvr this value right will be worth nine dollars if these conditions are met so when the cvr was created there are currently three drugs that bristol myers was trying to get approved by the fda and the terms of the cvr is if all three of those drugs are approved by the first quarter of next year then the cvr would be worth nine dollars and otherwise it would be worth zero dollars all right so this contingent value right the only thing that determines the value of it is the progress of these drugs for fda approval right it doesn't matter anything else in the stock market bristol myers stock could drop by 50 percent and the contingent value rights may not drop at all and they would actually go up if there is being progress made on these fda approvals when all is said and done the rights will be worth either nine dollars or zero dollars there's there's no in between where this acts like sort of a binary option where it's either all or nothing either all three drugs get approved by the fda and the rights are worth nine dollars or at least one of the drugs doesn't get approved by the fda by the first quarter of next year and then the rights would be worth zero okay so that's something to keep in mind that you know there is a lot of risk with this play it is by no means a risk-free investment and so the first drug was ozaminod and this was approved in march of this year so that is a good news for this rights offering so the first drug out of three was already approved by the fda back at the beginning of this year right so that is good news for the rights offering and the rights offering is priced accordingly right now they're trading at just about three dollars so about one third of the full value of the rights offering right the one out of three drugs has been approved so far and therefore the rights are trading at one third of their value now there's a number of signs that point to this having a high probability of being worth at least you know more than it is now at the three dollars right the first thing i always like to look at in these special situations is who owns the stock right who is owning this rights offering and in this case it's actually the bristol myers employees who are working on these drugs that have to be approved by the fda right the lyso cell and the id cell these employees that are working on these drugs are actually the employees who own a large number of these rights offering and of course bristol myers isn't going to you know purposefully delay uh potentially life-saving drugs just to save some money right obviously they're going to put it through or they're going to face massive lawsuit risk right and there's a couple of reasons that this rights offering is currently mispriced you know these are ideas from someone like joel greenblatt who wrote the book you can be a stock market genius in that book he talks about a lot of these special situation investments and why there are some fantastic opportunities for high returns right if you look for uncommon situations in the stock market that have a reason to be underpriced so the first thing with this is that the liquidity probably isn't going to be there for large funds now there still is around 10 million shares traded daily so for you and me the average retail investor this is going to be plenty of liquidity to get in and out of this position with no problem but for a you know 100 billion dollar fund they're probably not going to be able to get into the cvr and the second thing is that most funds aren't allowed to you know invest in something like a cvr most funds have it send zone they have these risk measures in place that say you can't really invest in any of these special situations because there is an opportunity for high risk and so while that may be true that takes out a ton of potential investors out of the equation especially large funds that are you know the main movers of these types of stocks because the rules of the fund are that they can't invest in something like a contingent value right now there has been some potential risk for these last two drugs being approved by the fda with the whole pandemic situation right there has been some delays in the fda getting out to bristol myers to be able to inspect the drugs and there was actually a refuse to file letter for the last drug that would be approved by the end of the first quarter 2021 and even though this makes the deadline tight for that drug the date is still march 27 2021 so that gives them a few days breathing room before this deadline and now so there is some more news of the second drug potentially being approved by the fda where just around last week there was someone on twitter sheep of wall street who posted pictures of allegedly fda plant inspectors at the bristol meyer squib factory and this tweet was later deleted but from what i've seen it seems pretty likely that you know that this information is legit and that there actually was fda inspectors at the bristol myers plan so because of that that makes me more confident that the second drug is currently on track to be approved by its deadline which is around the end of this year all right and so like i said there's two more drugs to be approved before these rights would be worth the full nine dollars and so the first drug was already approved the second one has a high chance of going through um you know if you take a look at what point they are in the approval process right once a drug is at this stage it has around 88 chance of being approved and so really the largest amount of uncertainty is with that last drug to be approved from the fda so bristol myers received a refusal to file letter from the agency um you know it cited the need for additional information in chemistry manufacturing and control and so the thing is even though on march 31 2021 the rights will be worth either nine dollars or zero dollars in between that the stock can move it can move like a normal stock right based on investor expectations the rights value can move up and down and so even though maybe the rates won't be worth nine dollars in the meantime i still think there is a good chance for appreciation in these rights before the end of this year right so in this article the author said that if you take those expected probabilities of approval the value of this contingent value right should be around seven dollars and 29 and so we can take a look at these bristol meyer squib rights offerings right now they trade under bmy.rt and we can take a look right now they're trading at just about three dollars for each right and if we take a look at you know the history of what this what this has been doing there were they hit a peak of around four dollars and fifty cents back in may of this year and ever since then they've really been on a downtrend back in september they hit a low of under two dollars you know and so this just shows that you know the current investors aren't very optimistic about the approval of these last few drugs even though even though the odds seem fairly high that at least the second drug will be approved and there probably is a decent chance of the third one being approved too so i currently think that these rights are undervalued based on the probability of the last two drugs being approved by the fda i wouldn't be surprised at all if we see these rights offerings move towards six dollars by you know in the next few months especially by the end of the year and if we see news of the second drug being approved by the fda and any announcements on the progress of the third i think it's very likely to see these rights offerings go to seven or even eight dollars per share as investors begin to expect the full value of these rights being realized so of course don't just buy these because you watch this video you have to do your own research and nothing in this video should be taken as financial advice and in terms of what i'm doing i haven't bought any of these yet but i am thinking about it i'm still looking into this situation where i want to learn a little more about the fda approval process because that's something i don't really know much about so i'm in the process of looking into that and seeing you know at what point these drugs are at now in the approval process and trying to get a good understanding of the probability that they'll ultimately end up being approved by their deadlines and in that event i would probably take you know a small position in this again there is still a lot of risk because by next year there's only two outcomes the rates are worth nine dollars or worth of zero dollars so even if you bought the rights now and they go up to six or seven dollars and then we get news that the third drug isn't going to be approved in time then the rights would instantly drop all the way down to zero dollars so that is also something to keep in mind there is a large risk with these but all in all i do see somewhat of an asymmetrical risk to reward where if you invested in these right now and they were eventually worth the full 90 you'd get three times your initial investment with the risk of a 100 loss so that's why i ended up buying into these i would keep my position size small so i'd be able to take the loss if these rights did end up being worth zero dollars so that's it for this video i just want to share with you this interesting opportunity in the stock market that isn't correlated at all to how the stock market does right we could see a huge stock market crash and as long as the fda approval process is still going where it's supposed to be going these rights should go up in value so let me know what you think about this opportunity and if this is something you're going to look into more if you found something of value from this video hit the like button to help you to push this out to more viewers and if this 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