저자: 미상 · 외국인
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버핏의 뱅크오브아메리카 추가 매수 소식을 근거로 은행주, 특히 지역은행의 장기 상승 여지를 주장하는 영상이다. 버핏이 BAC 지분을 확대했고 연준 승인으로 10% 이상 보유가 가능해졌다는 점을 짚는다. 은행은 버핏의 역량 범위(circle of competence) 안에 있는 업종이라는 설명이다. BAC 펀더멘털: 현금 주당 117달러 대비 주가 약 25달러, 단기부채 없음, 순이익률 약 30%, 순이익 증가 및 부채 감소 추세를 긍정적으로 평가한다. 밸류에이션: P/E, P/FCF, 영업현금흐름 기준으로 역사적으로 매우 저렴한 구간이며, 피터 린치 차트상 평균 P/E 아래에서 매수하면 수익률이 좋았다고 본다. 현재 주가도 해당 선 아래라고 해석한다. 금리 전망: 금리가 사상 최저 수준이라 바닥이며 이후 상승은 불가피하다고 보고, 금리 상승기에 은행주가 시장을 상회한다는 과거 차트를 근거로 든다. 부정적 기대가 이미 주가에 반영됐다고 본다. 지역은행 선호: 대형은행보다 소형 지역은행이 유형장부가치 이하로 거래되고 있어 더 좋은 기회라고 주장하며, 본인의 최대 보유 종목이 소형은행 BOKF라고 밝힌다. 리스크/조건: 금리가 현재처럼 낮게 유지되는 한 단기적으로 은행주는 계속 부진할 수 있다고 인정한다. 투자 기간은 5~10년 장기 관점이다. 출연자 전망: 단기 부진 가능성은 인정하나 장기적으로 은행주, 특히 지역은행에 대해 매우 밝게 전망한다.
다듬은 글
hi everyone welcome back there's been some recent news breaking about warren buffett buying some more stocks as we all know he is someone that's holding a lot of cash and has said he's holding out for lower prices for stocks in the future but he has been buying this one stock so in this video i'm going to show you what stock that is why warren buffett likes this stock so much and my thoughts on this stock and the industry in general so you can see it here warren buffett's berkshire boosts bank of america stake by around 813 million so berkshire purchased 33.9 million of the company's shares in the past week and boosted their stake by more than three percent so recently berkshire hathaway got approval from the federal reserve to own more than 10 of the bank most of the time there's a cap on the ownership limits for banks but berkshire got a green light to go ahead and buy more than 10 of bank of america so right now they own quite a large percentage of the entire bank so that's the stock he's been buying warren buffett's been buying up some more bank of america since the shares have been struggling now a lot of people are scratching their heads at this especially newer investors and saying why would you buy a stock like bank of america it's not growing that fast you know it's a bank not an exciting industry why would you buy banks you could go buy tesla you could go buy shopify you could buy any of these stocks that are growing that are tech that are the future but warren buffett is buying this old-school company bank of america so the first reason is that warren buffett has a huge amount of knowledge in the banking industry banks are clearly something in warren buffett's circle of competence and he said himself he only invests in things that he fully understands and so one of the first companies warren buffett ever owned was a bank and so from that point he's had a lot of experience operating banks knowing how banks run and he clearly has a very deep understanding of bank of america so that's reason number one and why he doesn't like tech stocks in general is just because he doesn't understand them now we're going to take a quick look at the fundamentals of bank of america and there's a lot of things i like looking at them straight off the bat the thing that jumps off to me first is their price to cash their price to cash ratio is only a 0.2 so what that means is this company has five times as more cash as their current market cap you can see it right here they have 117 dollars in cash per share meanwhile the share price is only just around 25 dollars so this is a company that's loaded up on cash in addition you can see they have no short-term debt they do have some long-term debt but in the short term they have a lot of cash and no debt and that's definitely something that's attractive to warren buffett in an economic environment like this where no one really knows for sure what's going to happen with the economy another thing they have a profit margin of almost 30 percent this is very good and shows that bank of america knows how to take their revenue and turn it into actual profits that they keep a lot of companies bring in a lot of revenue but they have so many expenses and costs that once everything is accounted for they're actually losing money bank of america is a very profitable company and it's pretty clear they're going to stay that way for the foreseeable future now some quick notes about bank of america's valuation if you compare bank of america to itself you can see right now is one of the cheapest valuations you could ever buy bank of america based on their p e ratio on their price to free cash flow and the price of operating cash flow this is pretty much the best valuation you can ever get bank of america and so i think warren buffett's taking this opportunity to buy a very consistent strong company at low valuations you can also see these charts we can see since around 2011 2012 net income which is the green bars on the chart have been increasing gradually this is exactly what warren buffett likes solid stable companies that grow income consistently and from the next chart you can see that their debt has been falling since around 2010.
so that's very good news for this company increasing incomes and reducing debt very good things that this company is doing to place themselves in a good position going forward we can also take a look at this chart this chart is known as the peter lynch chart in peter lynch's book he creates charts like this and the extra lines are basically a movie p e ratio and basically he says when you buy stocks below their average p e ratio the return tends to be pretty good going forward and you can see that from this chart where if you bought bank of america below the green and red lines which are the average p e ratios the returns tend to be pretty good where you could have bought them in 2009 you could have bought them in 2011.
and if you bought those two places the returns are pretty good for the stock now on the other hand if you bought in places like 2014 and again at 2018 you can see the share price doesn't really do much it sort of goes sideways for a few years and so right now where are we again the price is below those two lines so that indicates that this could be a good place to be buying bank of america stock now here is why i think warren buffett is so bullish on bank stocks i alluded to this in a video i made a couple of months ago it's something like why bank stocks make up 50 of warren buffett's portfolio and i think in my opinion it's because of the current interest rate environment this is a long-term chart of interest rates and right now we're at the lowest level pretty much ever interest rates are cyclical so they have periods where they go up in periods where we go down and right now it's pretty clear we're at the bottom of the cycle where interest rates are virtually at zero and so from from here there's really nowhere to go but up this relates to bank stocks because banks make money based on the interest rate based on the interest rate they charge their customers and then the interest rate they can get from loaning out that money so when interest rates are low banks aren't going to be able to bring in as much income lending out their money and so that's why historically when interest rates are low like they are right now banks struggle and we can illustrate that using this chart right here up on this track with the intro trait which is the blue line then i put up the stock market the s p 500 is the red line and the orange line is the is xlf which is the financial etf so the orange line makes up all the bank stocks the red line is the stock market in general and the blue line is the interest rate and what we can see is during times when interest rates are higher like in this period bank stocks outperform right the orange line is up more than the red line banks outperform the stock market when interest rates are high but ever since the great recession interest rates hit rock bottom and what happened from that point the stock market took off and banks have been going up but not as much as the stock market they've been underperforming and right now interest rates are at rock bottom again so looking at this i am also pretty bullish on the banking industry because in my opinion the maximum amount of pessimism and fear is already priced into these stocks where the worst is already expected for banks the interest rate is as low as it can go even though we could go into negative rates i don't think it's very likely and so in my opinion right now we're really at a floor of where interest rates can go and from here the only direction they can really go is up which is good for banks so i think warren buffett's piling into bank stocks now when there's a bunch of pessimism around the banking industry and interest rates are low and when interest rates start to creep back up which is inevitable these banks will start to do very well now if you watch my channel you know i'm also bullish on the banking industry but in my opinion instead of buying banks like bank of america wells fargo jp morgan these large banks i see a better opportunity in small cap regional banks here's an article that shows a list of small cap banks that are trading below their tangible book value bank stocks are usually valued based on their book value or their tangible book value and most of the time banks are valued at what their tangible book value is and a lot of the time they're valued at a premium to the tangible book value but right now we see in the small cap banking space there's a bunch of stocks actually trading below their tangible book value and this happens whenever we have a financial crisis and banks tend to do poorly we always see banks get pummeled to the point where they're below their tangible book value and going forward from this point they always provide very nice returns that's why my largest holding is a bank stock and instead of bank of america it's a small cap bank bank ozk so that's really my thoughts on where the banking industry is going and why i think they will do well over the next five to ten years in the short term anything could happen in fact in the short term i think bank stocks will continue to struggle as long as interest rates are this low but everything i invest in is for the long term and in the long term i think that outlook is very bright for banking stocks particularly the regional banks so that's it for this video if you learned something from this video and found it useful hit the like button if you want to see more videos just like this one subscribe to the channel and hit the bell icon so you get notified whenever i upload a new video so that's it for now and i hope to see you on the next video you
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