저자: InvestingClub채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 스핀오프 예정인 American Outdoor Brands(AOUT)가 분리 후 기관 매도 압력으로 단기 급락할 가능성이 있어 저가 매수 기회를 노릴 만하다는 주장. [스핀오프 개요] Smith & Wesson이 American Outdoor Brands를 분사하며, 분리 완료일은 2020년 8월 24일(월)로 언급됨. 스핀오프 기업은 과거 연구상 모기업과 분사 기업 모두 일정 기간 시장을 상회하는 경향이 있다는 Joel Greenblatt 전략을 근거로 제시. [기관 매도 가설] AOUT는 시가총액 약 1억~2억 달러 규모로 예상되며, 기관(헤지펀드·기금)의 최소 투자 규모 규정 때문에 자동 매도될 것으로 봄. 이 매도 압력이 주가를 눌러 저가 진입 기회를 만든다는 논리. [밸류에이션] 매출 1억 6,700만 달러, 순손실 약 9,600만 달러이나 EBITDA 약 1,230만 달러, 투하자본이익률 10%, 총자산 약 3억 달러, 부채 약 4,900만 달러로 재무가 비교적 건전하다고 평가. 유사기업(Sportsman's Warehouse, Dick's Sporting Goods, Clarus) EV/EBITDA 15~23배 기준 적정 주가 15~17달러 제시. [매수 전략] 주가가 10달러 이하, 8달러 이하, 가능하면 5달러까지 밀리면 매력적이라고 언급. [경영진 인센티브] 러셀 2000 대비 초과수익에 연동된 성과급 주식 보상 계획이 SEC 제출 자료에 있어 주주 이익과 정렬됐다고 평가. [실행 방안] SWBI 선매수(분사 후 AOUT 자동 취득), AOUT 'when-issued'(AOUT.V) 활용한 롱/숏 페어 트레이드, 또는 상장 후 첫 며칠 주가 관찰 후 진입 등을 제시. [리스크·조건] 기관 매도가 예상보다 적으면 주가가 크게 밀리지 않을 수 있으며, 그 경우 진입하지 않을 수 있다고 유보. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 매도 압력이 현실화되면 단기간 내 좋은 수익 가능성이 있다고 보나, 실제 매수 여부는 확정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hi everyone welcome back to investing club in today's video we're going to be taking a look at a special opportunity in the stock market that's happening very soon and this is a stock i will be watching very closely over the next few days to see if it presents a buying opportunity because if you take advantage of the situations that i'm about to show you historically there is big money to be made when these events happen so what i'm talking about is a company that's being spun off from the parent company you can see it in the announcement right here smith and wesson brand announces the spin-off for american outdoor brands so for anyone that doesn't know what a spinoff is essentially what it is when a big company that has many different divisions like smith and weston you know they have a lot of different businesses within the entire parent organization what they do is they say you know we don't really want this little business inside of our company anymore we want to spin it off and have it create its own separate corporation to separate ourselves from the business and this could happen for a number of different reasons a lot of the time it's because there's something unattractive about the spin-off company that is that is weighing on the valuation of the parent company but anyway this is a strategy that joel greenblatt talks about a ton he wrote the book you can be a stock market genius and he also wrote the little book that beats the market and joel greenblatt is huge on these unusual stock spin-off opportunities and for good reason historically there's always been a lot of money to be made when you follow these stock right so historically with all studies that have been done on spin-offs it's been shown that spin-offs tend to outperform the market over time and that goes for both the parent company and for the company that's being spun off both of them tend to outperform the market for a period of time after the spinoff is completed right between 2000 and 2005 there is a study that spinoffs beat the market by an average of 45 during their first two years and the parent company also beat the market by 40 and this has been repeated for different time periods and it's pretty consistently shown that spinoffs and parent companies tend to outperform the market for a period of time after the transaction is completed so here is the parent company that's spinning out american outdoor brands they are smith and wesson they are one of the most well-known firearms manufacturers in the united states and so essentially what they're doing is they want to focus on their firearms business and they're spitting out american outdoor brands and if we take a look at american outdoor brand's website this is really what their strategy is they are a brand that provides accessories for outdoor activities so you can think hunting hiking fishing pretty much any outdoor activity this company has products for so so basically what they do is they find these small niche brands and they buy out these brands and help promote them and make them bigger so this company's been buying up a ton of these small niche brands and now they have a portfolio of outdoor wilderness brands so what i'm watching is for the spin-off company american outdoor brands i'm looking to see what the stock does when the spin-off is completed and that is happening on august on august 24th which is next monday now this is what happens most of the time most of the time when there's a spin-off the parent company does well but the company being spun off actually does very poorly and a lot of the time this is because institutional selling of that stock so we can take a look at smith and wesson brands they are a 1.29 billion dollar company and so what this means is a lot of institutions are likely to hold this stock but when the spin-off is completed anyone who owns smith and wesson stock automatically gets shares of the new american outdoor brand stocks for being an owner of the company so what i'm expecting to see is a lot of selling for this new stock american outdoor brands because they are a much smaller company than smith and wesson i think the project for them to be around a 100 million to 200 million dollar company and a lot of institutions like hedge funds and endowments that are invested in the stock they have specific rules that only allow them to invest in companies that are a certain size a lot of them don't want to be invested in companies that are as small as 100 million so because of that whenever they get a stock like american outdoor brands they're just going to sell it right away without even thinking about it because it's in the bylaws of the organization they can't own a stock that small and so i think this has a very good chance of happening where all the institutions that own smith and wesson they get assigned this new stock american outdoor brand and they're just going to sell it right away and this will create a huge amount of downward pressure on the stock and it's at that point where if it's at an attractive valuation i'll swoop in and buy some at a low price and then the shares will eventually come back up once all that institutional selling is over so now we're gonna take a look at the valuation of american outdoor brands and at what price it would be attractive to buy so if you look at their last fiscal year they had 167 million in sales and if you work that through the income statement that comes out all the way at the bottom to a net loss of around 96 million dollars but the most important thing is that they have a positive ebitda of around 12 million dollars because they have a large amount of goodwill and other intangible assets that are going to be amortized over time that's going to take a hit on the bottom line of this company so if you don't pay attention to that their ebitda is pretty solid and that 12.3 million of ebitda gives them a 10 return on invested capital another number that joel greenblatt likes to look at and a 10 return on invested capital is actually very solid especially for a clothing company that shows that the management is able to effectively reinvest in the business to grow their profits now if we take a look at the balance sheet also a very healthy balance sheet for this company they have around 300 million in total assets but only 49 million in total liabilities they also have enough cash on the balance sheet to cover their current liabilities so overall a very healthy balance sheet for this company so since this was a child company inside of smith wesson we don't have all the historical information for this portion of their company american outdoor brand so to find a valuation the best guess we can make is to compare it to its peers very similar companies that are in the same industry to see what their valuation is and that can give us a picture of what american outdoor brands should be valued at so the companies that most closely resemble american outdoor brand are companies like sportsman's warehouse holdings dick's sporting goods and clarus corporation and we can take a look at what kind of evaluations these companies are trading at and then make an estimate for american outdoor brands so here's a chart that compares all of them and the valuation metric we're going to be looking at is enterprise value over ebitda this is probably the best way to value these companies that may not be profitable but they are generating ebitda and it also takes into account enterprise value which accounts for factors like amount of cash and amount of debt on the balance sheet and so from these three comparison companies you can see the valuation for companies like this range from around 15 times enterprise value to ebitda to around 23 times so that's really the range what we're looking at for this company around 15 to 23 times enterprise value to ebitda and so once american outdoor brands get spun off their ticker will be aowt once they get spun off we'll see what their enterprise value is based on the market cap and then we can come up with a valuation for the company and so the author of this article i'll put it down in the description they did a rough estimate of the company's value and if you take into account 167 million in sales and you can do a rough estimate of the enterprise value around 207 million the shares are likely to be fairly valued at somewhere between in the 15 to 17 dollar range so that's where i see the opportunity for this company if we see on monday the shares get spun off and they just get crushed from all the institutions telling if this stock got under ten dollars under eight dollars if you could even get as low as five dollars that would be an outstanding opportunity to buy this company just based on the temporary selling pressure that's happening not due to the fundamentals of the company that's why a lot of these spin-off opportunities are so attractive because you know the selling has nothing to do with the quality of the company these institutions are just literally forced to sell because of the rules that they have to follow so if you take advantage of this opportunity there's a good chance to make some good returns now another way that joel greenblatt talks about determining how well this new child company will perform is looking at the management and specifically seeing if they're aligned with shareholders you know is the management getting just paid a cash salary or are they getting stock options that incentivizes them to really help grow the company and help the stock price outperform and that is definitely the case for this company there is an incentive plan so all you have to do is look at the sec filings for this company and they recently filed an incentive plan that talks about performance stock grants that are based on this new stock american outdoor brand outperformance relative to the russell 2000 so this is a very good sign that management is in that is acting in the interest of shareholders their interests are just like ours to make the value of the company as high as possible so the share price can continue to outperform so now all that being said what are the practical steps you can take to take advantage of this situation there's a number of things you can do the first thing you can do is just buy smith and wesson brands right now their ticker is swbi and if you buy this the spin out hasn't happened yet so you can buy smith and wesson right now and then when the spin-off happens on monday you you automatically get the new shares of the spun off company just from owning the parent company and like i showed you with all those studies both the parent company and the child company both tend to outperform after a spin-off so buying the parent company right now would make sure you have exposure to both of them now there's another very interesting thing you can do where right now even though the spin-off hasn't been completed yet these new shares have been issued that act as the new child company the ticker is aou tv so there's a v on the end of the ticker symbol and so these shares are basically ious for the new child company that will be spun off on monday so if you own these each share of this will automatically be swapped out with the new shares once the spin-off is completed but you can use these shares right now to create a different scenario where if you want to go along the parent company after the spin-off is completed and you want to emulate that right now all you would do is go long on smith and weston as the swb i stock and then you would short this american outdoor brands aou tv stock and essentially what that would do would give you the same position as the new parent company if you think that stock will outperform and then again the last thing you could do is what i'm waiting to do is you just wait for the spin-off to happen for the new american outdoor brand stock to be listed on the stockx the ticker will be aout and then you just wait to see what happens there is a chance that the institutional selling won't be as much as i expected and the stock won't really suffer that much for the first few days of trading and in that case you just don't do anything unless you want to buy the stock anyway but what i'm planning to do is i'm waiting for the first few days of next week to see how the stock performs if it just absolutely gets crushed from all the selling pressure then i would probably take a position like i said the fair values will probably be in the 15 to 17 dollar rate so that's it for this video just wanted to show you this opportunity it's a stock i'm very closely following and like i said i think if we do see that selling pressure that i am expecting then there could be the possibility for some very good returns in a very short period of time with this stock so if you like unique ideas for investing in the stock market like this be sure to like the video as it helps out my channel a lot and be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already i'll make any updates if i actually do end up buying this stock so stay tuned for that and i will see you on the next video you
Comments 0