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워런 버핏이 항공주 4종(유나이티드·아메리칸·델타·사우스웨스트) 지분을 전량 매도했으며, 이는 팬데믹 이후 항공 산업의 불확실성 때문으로 보인다. 버핏은 주주총회에서 2~3년 후에도 작년 수준의 승객 수송이 회복될지 확신할 수 없다고 밝혔고, 항공사는 대출이 많고 기재는 줄지 않는 구조라 수요 회복이 더뎌질 수 있다고 진단했다. 버핏은 2007년 연례보고서에서 항공 산업을 자본이 끝없이 빨려 들어가는 구덩이라고 비판했던 적도 있다. 2015~2016년 매수는 현금 보유 부담과 당시 상대적으로 낮은 밸류에이션 때문으로 추정된다. 발언자는 항공주를 보유하지 않으며 앞으로도 살 가능성이 낮다고 밝혔다. 이유는 경쟁 과열, 얇은 마진, 지속 가능한 경쟁우위 부재, 높은 부채와 경기 민감성이다. 배당 재개 가능성도 낮고 정부 지원을 받으면 배당이 금지될 가능성이 크다고 봤다. 최근 주가 상승은 잉여현금흐름의 96%를 쓴 자사주 매입 때문이었으나 이제 매입이 멈출 것이라고 분석했다. 향후 산업은 빠른 회복 없이 매우 느린 성장이 예상되며, 항공주가 상승할지 하락할지는 두고 봐야 한다고 결론지었다.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody invest in cloud here and we had some pretty big news coming over the weekend Warren Buffett sold his entire stake of airline stocks that's four different airline stocks that Warren Buffett sold he sold all of his shares in United American Airlines Delta and Southwest Airlines now for a lot of people this is pretty surprising the fact that Warren Buffett would sell stocks at a loss because when people think of Warren Buffett what do they usually think of buy and hold Warren Buffett is one of the largest proponents of buy-and-hold investing there is so what actually made him sell out of his entire position of airline stocks at a loss Berkshire Hathaway had their shareholder meeting over the weekend and there Warren Buffett said that he saw a big shift happening in the airline industry and doesn't know that they will be back at full strength and this is a quote from the shareholder meeting Warren Buffett said I don't know whether it's two or three years from now that as many people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year they may and they may not but the future is much less clear to me how the business will turn out though absolutely through absolutely no fault of the airline's themselves and there's something that was a low probability event that happened and it happened to hurt the travel business the hotel business cruise business and theme park business and the airline business in particular and of course the airline business has the problem that if the business comes back 70% or 80% the aircraft don't disappear and so I agree with Warren Buffett on this you know I don't think it's clear how many people will be flying when this is all over and there's a lot of uncertainty in the airline industry right now and I think that's a big reason why he sold out now it's also pretty interesting that around a month ago when Warren had first sold some stocks and Airlines I made a video talking about how it wasn't a good look for airline stocks and a bunch of people in the comments were saying he's not actually selling all he's doing is cutting down his mistake to below 10% so he gets under the reporting threshold and so and everyone was believing that and now we know the real reason true he wanted to get under the threshold but the only reason he wants to do that was so he could dump the rest of his stock without having to tell everyone until now Warren Buffett also said something interesting he said when we sell something very often it's going to be our entire steak I mean we don't trim positions so this is for everyone that so this is for the next time Warren Buffett starts to sell something you can't use that excuse anymore if he's just starting to he's just trimming his positions because he's came out and said he doesn't do that now if airline industries don't come back they're going to have to either take on more debt or use or dilute their shares to raise money and either which will destroy value for shareholders and so even though Warren Buffett owned airline stocks for the last few years what a lot of people don't know is Warren Buffett used to hate airline stocks and I have a quote from his 2007 annual report quote the airline industry is demand for capital ever since the first flight has been insatiable investors have poured money into a bottomless pit attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it and I to my shame participated in this foolishness when I had Berkshire buy US air preferred stock in 1989 okay Warren Buffett has made this mistake before he has a love-hate relationship with Airlines where he says they're a bottomless pit and then he buys stock enough so the thing is if he hates airline stocks why did he start buying them in around 2015 to 2016 because I was when he started buying the position he recently sold and my opinion on why he did is simply because he really didn't have anywhere else to put the money you know if you studied warren buffett you'll know throughout history there's been periods of time where the markets have been going up like crazy and Warren Buffett doesn't really find any opportunities to put his money in and I think he was practically forced to buy airlines in 2016 because he already had a historic I'm not enough cash sitting on the sidelines and didn't want even more cash just sitting around doing nothing and airlines were practically the only industry trading at a reasonable valuation at that time so that's why I think they thought and now I think and I think now people that follow Warren Buffett's investments are put in a pretty tricky position because they thought that airlines were a good buy just because Warren Buffett invested in them and I've said this before and I'll say it again never buy a stock because someone else is it doesn't matter who it is you know that's something that applied to me you know even if Warren Buffett's investing in something I don't really care if it's a good deal if I think it's a good deal I'll buy it but if not then I won't buy it it's that simple now I'm not affected at all by this because I don't own airline stocks and I probably will never buy an airline stock in my life and if you watch my video where I analyze the airline industry you will know my reasons for this and I'll put a card up to it right now but for a quick recap why don't I like airline stocks because the industry is highly competitive has razor thin margins and it's impossible to have a sustainable competitive advantage what Warren Buffett likes to call a mode no airline companies have a real mode they are capital intensive and carry massive loads of debt and they are highly cyclical and for those reasons the airline industry just isn't a place where I want to be putting my money even with the distressed price that a lot of airlines are currently trading out now if you're a current holder of airline stocks I really don't know what to tell you you're in a pretty tough position and the only thing I can really say to you is you really should never have bought airline stocks in the first place now if you did buy airline stocks I would assume it's for one of the three reasons first either one because Warren Buffett bought airline stocks two because they pay a nice dividend or three because the share price has been increasing in the past five years and maybe it's a combination of a few of those but the hard truth is that none of these really apply anymore to airline stocks first Warren Buffett sold all his airline stocks so if you're someone who follows every investment he makes then it makes sense that you would sell also not a loss and maybe you bought some of these airline stocks because they do have a pretty nice dividend at least they have in the past but the thing is now for the I don't see them I don't see Airlines reinstating a dividend for the foreseeable future and if any of them get support from the government a stipulation will likely be that they're not allowed to pay a dividend so now you have to ask yourself if you like these thoughts even if you're not receiving a dividend from them and lastly yes airline prices have been increasing airline stocks having over the past few years but as I've said before this is because 96% of their free cash flow has been spent on share buybacks and since all airlines are now out of money this is going to stop there's going to be no share buybacks and I think now we will see what the industry looks like without it being manipulated by by a massive amount of share buybacks and what I think will happen is we'll see extremely slow growth from this industry coming out of this recession now all that being said you can stay you and now all that being said you can still be bullish on airline stocks just because I don't like them doesn't mean you can't buy them if you don't want to you could have a different opinion than me you could think airline the airline and she will rebound and if you research them and that's what you think then I wish you the best and I certainly hope airlines recover but at the end of the day this industry is just filled with too much uncertainty even without the uncertainty I don't like this industry in general so that's my thoughts on what happened over the weekend and we will see what the reaction is from shareholders of Airlines Fox will they go down after this news or where or will they actually go up that remains to be seen and I guess we will just have to wait and see subscribe to the channel if you haven't already and I will see you on the next video
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