저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
예산 후 시장 하락 원인을 자본지출(capex)에서 소비 중심으로의 순환매로 설명. 방산·철도 등 capex 수혜주가 밸류에이션 부담으로 약세이며 자동차·FMC·Zomato 등 소비주는 반등 흐름. 토요일 장으로 매도 우선 후 매수 가능성 언급. 통화정책 완화 필요성과 경제 구조적 둔화보다는 선거 등 일시적 요인이라는 낙관적 시각, 신용성장률 15~16% 회복 중요성 강조.
다듬은 글
Let's talk in English, Swadesh viewers are also watching this budget Ramdev ji, there is one pivot, one pivot has happened after 2021, one the budget came out the focus was expenditure yes and PSU stocks defence stocks railway stocks all started going up today capex is down and consumption is up is the market reaction justified market elevate right ok so what is happening is that brother you mean where there was no capex you brought capex there so expenditure means incremental location that capex went in one way means 10 12 lakhs to lakhs to lakhs of stocks 11 12 so incrementally you created order book and made a push so in that there was low P for low earnings you made it high P for high earnings, you made P of 50 60 70 now what is it brother there is no further push there so what did you do, there was no earning growth in consumption so its effect never increased your P multiple always Compensation remains slightly high, so PER remained relatively high at 4050, but there was no earning performance due to that, two stocks have not done well now, so clearly, there is a huge push, so you have seen automotive, FMC, Zomato, everything is like blasted, so clearly, there is a rotation from a capex-oriented location to consumer-oriented allocation, this shift has happened only an hour ago, as it builds up, people will read the fine print, then they will actually go to the market and see, brother, but it is up, that is what I am saying, this is a very stark kind of thing, there is a surprise element, a different position for this, I feel, which means I am not able to understand right now why the market is down, so it means that brother, on one side you are going up, on the other side, actually you are doing this, so clearly, there is a shift, so on one side, well, what is the other, the fund manager, is there today I cannot buy today, I will have to sell there first, so people are busy selling right now and it is Saturday as well, so there is no dead in the market, so you sell first and then you will buy, right, buying will come after two days because I cannot buy today in front of what I sell today, unless I have cash balance, so this is also an issue, so I think the market will find its feet, secondly I said that your monetary policy has become fiscal, now the monetary people should also show some action, so that will actually give the fill, first what happened last year, you tightened the fiscal a bit because the government capex did not happen, well, one good thing has been written in Economics, I spent a lot of time reading it yesterday, Rat right, Nageshwar Van did a tremendous job, such a first class, what he said was that brother, look, the slowdown is structural and seasonal, so the slowdown is not structural, it is seasonal because of election problem, you will not have any election next year If it remains then it will go full blast, so the economy will gain the momentum which is at 7-75, I think the half rate which we have lost this year will also come back and on top of that there will be a bust of compression and if suppose they correct the monetary policy and if suppose the credit growth is at 15-16, then that looks to be a very tall order, but I think the biggest important ask in my mind is 15 to 16 credit growth to the economy, us now.
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