저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
Q3 실적은 전년비 큰 성장이지만 전분기비 브로킹 매출 감소. 자본시장 사업 비중이 커 규제(F&O 변경) 영향이 있음. 지수는 강세, 중소형주는 약세였고, 향후 이익 사이클은 2025 하반기~2026 상반기에 좋아질 것으로 봄. 대형주·은행주 중심 전환을 시사하며, 밸류에이션이 과도한 종목은 조정 위험. 장기적으로 포트폴리오 5년 두 배 기대는 언급했으나 단기 방향은 불확실하다고 함.
다듬은 글
but whom do we have now well well well ramdev agrawal yes the man as they call him ramd G always a pleasure to have you on it now I'm looking at your numbers for the quarter gone by and while year on year there is a surge surge in profits surge in Revenue growth in AMC business growth in brokerage business growth in every other vertical but quarter on quarter there is a drop now for a business which should not have a cyclicality why is there a drop yeah because uh uh see typically we we look at only year on year sequentially because of uh something or other keeps happening like uh in the Capital Market business there is a bit of drop because of CH all the changes we have made in uh this options and Futures so that it it hit us for one and a half months I mean second half of November and full December so clearly there is a sequential drop uh in that business which is 60% of the total business so yes to some extent there is a what do you call sobering effect because of that but otherwise I think operating year on year has been very strong uh almost 48% growth uh year on year so uh the momentum which we are build uh which is built across the 9 months is uh very high and same momentum we are seeing even for the current quarter which is Q4 so operating side I I don't see any slackness in the momentum but just to talk about the broking business Ram G you alluded to a weakness which has come there volume's already low exchanges have gone on record and they've said by the time the new sebi law is implemented in totality volumes may go down further so can I say that the stress in the broker brokerage business will continue because it accounts for 60% of your business and that business could contract further so it's an emerging situation in the sense that uh uh whatever changes are there that is taking effect and it is having its uh impact but since ours is a ours is a a lot more cash business and uh of course we have a very large options business almost 50% is options Revenue fut and options Revenue 50% is cash so the impact on cash side is less and uh uh the impact on option future little more but uh I mean on the Blended basis but what is happening is that when we look at the whole company uh the the growth in the rest of the businesses rest of the other parts of the Capital Market is more like 60 to 70% whereas the growth in growth for broking business we'll take a bitting and maybe for a quarter or two it could be lower sequentially but year on year it is still still high and the mutual fund business now Market volatility the selling in midcap and small cap stocks do you think the asset management business could also see some impact you know especially inflows into small cap uh the new nfos which you've launched the PMS business could that really take a hit also Capital Market business is always uh to predict anything is uh hazardous I would say but we have a brilliant December quarter I mean our flow net flow for the quarter if I'm not wrong was upwards of 25,000 just for a quarter uh before that quarter it was I think 15,000 crores or something like that so we had the record run and uh so that flow is still on so yes it can I mean uh always this kind of things don't continue forever uh they do subside but you see the what is happening is the revolution nikin uh broader thing I mean apart from M fall what is happening is that there is a first time the private Capital flows the risk capital is coming into the country and uh the market is participating in per ined Way 3 to 4 million customers every month so Market is clearly horizontally expanding the pace of expansion say if it is uh say 2 or 3% per month month on month that can come down to one one and a half% or maybe for sometime zero uh but uh the I would say year on-ear expansion uh to say anything about uh in this fluid environment to talk about a quarter and quarter is very tough but if you ask about the broader macro kind of a theme I would say the year on year 20 to 30% 40% growth of the industry itself is clearly visible now whether we'll participate we'll get same market share higher market share that is a matter of execution so I would I would not look at too much uh into you know one quarter uh here and there uh but I think the the expansion of the market irrespective of what is happening to Mid or small cap uh of course if they froy they are correct so last year mid and uh mid and large mid and small cap dominated funds they beat the market big time like Market did 10% they did 30 40% this is the year my sense is 2025 will be the year when actually index will beat all these funds uh uh you see what is happening I mean today it was very hugely contrast in the sense that one side the uh the broad large index is up 1% and other indexes they were down by 2 3% maybe 4% I don't know what isly the closing but so that's the kind of contrast we had we had last year when everything was working very well index was very uh very uh slow but uh the market actually was doing very well current year Market is not doing well actually but indices are doing very well so it's a contrast now markets Ram G her big reason why IPOs have done well ipu business business is important business given how market conditions are could the IPO business for you take a hit and do you see that getting impacted in terms of your next two quarters is a dynamic Market uh and uh Capital raising has been very robust very consistent week after week and valuations are also moderating uh so what is happening is that uh the primary Market is taking Q in terms of valuation from the secondary market and they are giving 20 30% discount if the secondary Market is coming down by 10% obviously the IPO price is also down by 10 to 15% from whatever it would have been so clearly there's a continuous Dynamic adjustment at some price promoters will say that I don't want to do it and that will be the bottom of the market so how would you rate the current environment I mean valuations are not very cheap fi outflows are strong there is a fear of trump war in the world U these are market conditions which in sense are making everybody rethink and reassess their allocation to equities so what would you in a sense characterize are the key if I would say uh key features of the current uh Market environment for Equity investor so n and we have seen all this Global geopolitical and all it is very very tough to Fathom I see two three things one is where the corer earnings are going you know if the corporate earnings are robust going forward I mean Company by company industry by industry or aggregate as a whole I think we have nothing to worry at 18 1820 P multiple uh that's the average uh 18 to 20 is the average for the indices and uh uh for the market as a whole but if the companies are at 100 P multiple 120 of course they are in a big danger of dramatic correction in their valuation now valuation correction can be two ways one is the actual drop in price and second is the second the time wise you know when the earnings pick up and the stocks don't respond so both of them will happen all kinds of action will happen but if the earnings pick up and I'm I'm optimistic that in next 12 months particularly in the first half of next year the government expenditure will be absolutely normal and uh and budgetary allocations will be larger and hence I would think that starting next year there won't be any elections so there won't be any slowdown in government capex and by that time even the credit flow which was very constrained last year would be uh under the new regime regime would be somewhat better and we are seeing those signs so I would think it takes time it took time for the economy to slow down I mean what restrictions were taken say eight or nine months back is showing up now so what actions you take now the real impact will be visible after 6 to 8 months but I would think the second half of 25 26 should be a bumper earning cycle you mentioned a till towards large cap stocks could that be a big message from Ram agrawal that the part small and midcap stocks is over and the store of value has now moved two large caps and it's not that the first time you know Ram G we've seen this kind of an environment I distinctly remember between 2016 and 17 and 18 there was a time when only handful of large cap stocks started outperforming and the rest of the market either was down or was it was in heronation I I would I I would think that uh broadly what you're saying is the direction in which I'm saying but I I would say much more specifically the where the earnings are there earnings earnings growth is there and the valuations are reasonable even if it is a midcap but if valuation is right there is no Stigma against a midcap or a small cap if the valuations are right they'll also fly but as a group right now valuations are far more reasonable in banking stocks and some large caps compared to Mid caps and small caps so clearly broader move would be a lot more large cap Centric than mid and small Centric ramv G you've been a big VY of uh digital business and the fact that you've just launched a mutila lwal digital nfo fund also what do you make of this disruption which is happening in the digital world I mean if Chad GTP can be overnight challenged by Deep seek I wonder what will happen to the existing digital businesses in India yeah me see actually what development yesterday you saw that will actually help uh digital businesses in India because if say AI was to be used by one business or other everybody will use it and if it was costing X now it will cost say 20 30% of that so it will actually help if you see yesterday in us move I was watching it actually only chips companies have gone down but the chip user companies have gone up so our businesses they are the cheap user rather than cheap makers so I would think that uh this is a robust business and very scalable very friction free and uh I mean yesterday's movement yesterday's move doesn't that much impact but I would think the broad growth uh growth uh what do you call uh growth potential of this business has still remain intact so how does your qgp framework working works here Mr agal um where in this market right now there is good quality available at a reasonable price where you can predict long-term growth ni the character of the market is very different from what we have seen in last 40 years in Last 5 Years Market character has changed from a say traditionally you know in say 40 million demed accounts your 35 million will be old and 5 million will be new now in 180 million de 185 million Dem accounts only 40 million is old and 145 million is new who have not seen the decline in the market Market or deeper correction in the market 15 20% correction is very very normal order of the day correction in any Market you know so uh if that kind of Correction is there I mean of course individual stocks might have corrected more but I think portfolios have corrected more like uh 12 to 15% 177% kind of thing which I would say is quite deep but yet it's not alarming for the amount of money people have made in last calendar itself so Jan 2025 is the starting point which is where we are on a threeyear basis do you think both mid and small cap stocks can give a double digit kager return see uh what I would say is that if you have a diversified well Diversified portfolio on a fiveyear basis you should expect from the current Uh current levels you should expect doubler of your portfolio that is what now whether it will be one year flat and next four year will be good or for next two years will be flat and next three will be good that I don't know this year itself will be bumper we don't know so it is very n actually it is very tough to say anything even it from the high of the market or even from a corrected market like current current level that what will be the actual performance in next one or two years but we are committed for longer term and my expectation from my own portfolio is always doubling in 5 years I mean sometimes it does 25% compounded sometimes it does even 30% and uh sometime between uh uh 17 to 20 it did very badly I mean it was was actually more like 12 13% only all right so a very important question perhaps relevant and something which everybody wants to uh understand your thoughts on this uh lot of investors and Traders I won't use the word lot but majority of investors and Traders who have bought stocks because of tip in the lift not because of insights for those who have a very large exposure to small and midcap stocks they are now on the receiving end of the market fall what should be a basic approach if you are in a stock which you don't understand if your midcap stock has fallen 15 to 20% what should one do take a hit get out raise cash or move to large cap because you'll appreciate the spirit of my question Mr agraval uh capital is limited with everyone and for those who are losing money in their uh portfolios how should they approach it now yeah so they they themselves are portfolio managers they decided to be portfolio managers whether with the adequate experience or not uh they have decided to get into in fact yesterday I was uh flying and uh my friend asked one of the air hosters she was saying that she not only does sips she also does direct stocks I said God bless her because you know doing this direct stock uh and and uh with a very little competence it is and they don't have time it is very tough to uh what you call beat the market or do very well and it brings all kinds of concern in your mind so I would think that they should examine whether they're in the right kind of a trade can they handle directly stock portfolio otherwise you have brilliant managers all over and uh they can take care of it and still meet your Equity allocation objective all right so give us some Pockets then ramdev G where you think valuations are looking reasonable where you think that if one is a genuine investor if you can digest 10 15% volatility your time Horizon is 2 3 years uh what is looking good and attractive in this market and where one do you think one should be buying yeah see valuation is a moving Target uh Nik I mean today uh say digital companies might have corrected by 25% 30% also okay so what level is the right level that you can decide but the sectors don't change I mean I'm telling you the spots where growth is there best thing is after 15 days you'll get to see all the results and you can go and see where exactly the big big sales growth is there about 25% sales growth is there so I would think digital businesses number one Capital Market businesses number two then uh energy transition businesses slightly cluttered right now but uh energy transition business also looks good so you have to and then there'll be some uh some new uh what you call development about particular business like West West management and all so so but then in larger segment I would think that uh these are the segments which have done well in last uh recent past and uh they seem to be they in a secular Mo uh Capital markets uh your uh uh uh uh digital businesses I mean they are growing at like upwards of 25 30% and at current prices I mean see once they become busted Growth stocks you know like when they they get busted in terms of their valuations irrespective of their performance I think that is a time to go and pick it up and that's what is happening right now lot of these stocks are getting busted now Mr gr so let's talk about something which youve always advocated Buffett has t us something which I think should be adopted by everyone buy fear and sell greed right now there is fear greed is over is it time to buy then you you you said it right now now fear is emerging I was as I said in the flight somebody asked so you know now the fear is slowly getting in so uh I think this is a time to be really uh energizing yourself getting yourself to buy into good stocks which you missed out last time and now the same stocks are avilable 25 30% lower so if you don't buy now then when do you buy appreciate your time thank you for joining us and you know once again thank you for uh being 18 hour's knowledge partner on the budget day and we look forward to meet you on the budget day sure we'll be there oh
Comments 0