저자: TomNash · 외국인
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결론: 영상 진행자는 시장 폭락이 임박했다는 주장과 그 반론을 함께 검토했으며, 본인은 마이클 버리 쪽에 더 가깝고 2021년 말~2022년 초 폭락 가능성을 개인 의견으로 제시한다. 과거 6년간 '곧 폭락한다'는 전망은 빗나갔고, S&P500은 최근 2년간 크게 상승해 45%를 기록했다는 언급이 있다. 폭락 근거 1(인플레이션/머니 프린터): 연준과 정부의 유동성 공급과 제로금리로 자산·원자재 가격이 오르고, 인플레이션이 심화되면 금리 인상이 불가피해 DCF 가치가 떨어져 주가가 폭락할 수 있다고 주장. 폭락 근거 2(고평가): 나스닥100의 주가매출비율(P/S)은 약 6으로 2015년의 2배, 닷컴버블 때 최고치인 7에 근접. 폭락 근거 3(버핏 지표): 시가총액/GDP 비율은 약 207%로, 닷컴 붕괴 전 140% 이상을 돌파했던 수준보다 높아 두 배 고평가 상태라고 설명. 폭락 근거 4(IPO): 최근 1년간 IPO 약 900건, 2000억 달러 조달로 닷컴 버블 당시 최고치인 600건을 넘어섰다고 언급. 폭락 근거 5(역레포): 은행들이 연준에 맡기는 역레포 잔고가 3개월 전 310억 달러에서 약 9000억 달러로 급증. 투자처가 없어 0.05% 금리에도 맡긴다는 점을 과열 신호로 해석. 반론 1(국채 수익률): 최근 2개월간 10년물 수익률이 22.5%(진행자 표현) 하락해 채권 수요가 늘었고, 시장이 향후 10년간 약 2% 수익률이 인플레이션을 상쇄한다고 보고 있다고 해석. 반론 2(캐시 우드 논리): 고평가는 기술 혁신(팔란티어, 테슬라 등)의 파괴적 성장 잠재력이 반영된 것이라는 주장으로, 적정가격이라는 시각. 반론 3(디플레이션): 테슬라 등 파괴적 기업이 기존 자동차 판매 구조와 딜러십을 대체해 디플레이션 효과를 낸다는 주장. 진행자는 이를 의견 차이로 봄. 반론 4(석유 덫): 기존 석유 생산업체가 높은 유가를 유지하며 재생에너지 전환을 가속해 장기적으로 디플레이션 요인이 된다는 논리. 반론 5(일시적 인플레이션): 제롬 파월은 공급망 차질 등으로 인한 인플레이션이 일시적이라고 주장. 진행자 결론: 가장 우려되는 것은 과잉 유동성과 제로금리를 금리 인상 없이 해소하기 어렵다는 점이며, 스태그플레이션 가능성과 함께 2021년 말~2022년 초 시장 붕괴를 예상하지만 개인 의견이며 투자 조언이 아니라고 밝힘. 기술주 일부는 테슬라·팔란티어 등 적정 가격일 수 있다는 점도 언급하고, 전반적으로 인플레이션 우려 쪽에 무게를 둠.
다듬은 글
the market crash is inevitable it's imminent it's almost here just wait one more second that's been said since 2015. for six years we've been hearing the same tune being played about the market about to crash however in hindsight that is as good as the weatherman on tv it's very funny very entertaining but rarely accurate and nobody gives a crap about what the weatherman is saying we all make our own decisions now the market not only not crashed in the past six years it actually ballooned for the past two years which included a pandemic year or maybe even a two the s p 500 did a whopping 45 so the market is doing better than ever now the question is is this the year is 2021 the year where the market actually crashes however unlike the past five years this time we have some heavy hitters on both sides of this argument on the one hand we have michael berry talking about inflation hyperinflation a market crash on the other hand we have kathy wood the tesla god basically talk about deflation and how inflationary concerns are irrelevant and in this video i'm going to test both of these arguments to tell you whether i think the market crash is imminent or it's not essentially this is going to be a battle between michael berry and kathy wood which is something we all want to see but can't get this video is going to be the closest you can get to it so what i'm going to do in this video i'm going to show you five arguments why the market is literally about to crash tomorrow it's inevitable but just to screw with your head i'm going to show you five arguments why the market is not about to crash and this is all fud and pretty much a joke stick around this is about to get bumpy now the one reason i'm extremely excited to make this sort of video is because unlike 2015 and onwards this year we have some extra argument and extra circumstances to make it interesting this is not just about overvaluation of the market there's other factors in play here which makes this into a very interesting debate and since the person i like to debate the most is me i'm gonna do the debate against myself but at the end of the video i'll give you my own conclusion who i think is right me or me in any case i win so the only thing i ask of you is don't click nothing don't smash nothing don't buy nothing don't subscribe to nothing just stick around with me give me your attention and i promise to give you a really good time for the next five to seven minutes so let's start with the first five arguments that the market crash is inevitable and is literally around the corner the first argument is inflationary and i have a scientific name for it it's called the money printer goes essentially this argument is saying that the federal reserve and the us government have provided so much liquidity liquidity being cash to the market and have lowered the interest rate to zero essentially discouraging any type of savings that now this money went straight into the stock market straight into commodities straight into raw materials made everything expensive as hell and due to the snowball effect of this whole thing actually feeding itself we are now headed to inflation probably even extreme inflation and we can't do nothing about it until we raise interest rates and when we do that we're going to crash the stock market because what happens when you increase interest rates essentially the dcf valuations of all these companies especially the companies with future profits actually go down basically inflation is going to lead to higher interest which is going to lead to lower prices of shares essentially crashing the stock market let's move on to argument number two so the second argument also has a scientific name and it's called are expensive if you take a look at the nasdaq 100 which is an index that lets you see what's going on with the large cap profitable tech stocks you'll see that the price to sales average is about six or almost six which is double than what we had in 2015 and is almost at the seven level seven is the highest we ever had and that happened you guessed it during the dot-com bubble so the argument here is that we're nearing the stage where the stocks the tech stocks are going to be so much overvalued it's going to be a replay of the dot-com 2000 crash let's see the third argument is called warning buffet and it has to do with the buffett indicator now in case you didn't know warren buffett is such an og he literally has an inflationary indicator named after his own legal name which is something i'd love to have one day but i doubt it the nash indicator well we have the nash equilibrium but it's not mine and on the serious note this indicator has another name it's called market cap to gdp market cap being the total value of stocks right now in the stock market and the gdp is the gross domestic product essentially the total value of all the services and products we're producing essentially the comparison between the value we're generating as a society versus the prices of the stock of the companies that generate that value we want to see how much they're overvalued versus the produce that they're actually producing now right now the ratio is get ready 207 percent which means it's twice overvalued it's quite heavy now if you take a look at the chart and you actually zoom out when in doubt zoom out you'll see that the chart actually spiked right around 2019 q4 2018 it crossed 140 percent ever since the dot com crash we've been below that ratio in q4 2019 we started crossing it and now we're parabolic we're 207 this is unprecedented the price of the stock compared to the actual value of goods and services that we're providing right now as a society is twice as expensive that's not a healthy situation and that's not a sustainable situation and the correction has to come the fourth argument is called show me the money another scientific name i know and it has to do with the amount of ipos initial public offerings that we had in the past year we're at 900 right now 200 billion dollars raised in the past year alone from 900 ipos just as a comparison the highest year we had so far was in you guessed it 2000 with 600 ipos which is another indicator that the market is literally going crazy and the correction has to come much like it happened in the 2000.com crash it is what it is and argument number five i call you scratch my back i scratch your back you pay me 0.05 percent now it actually has to do with the reverse repo market reverse reports in case you haven't watched my video on it essentially it's a situation where the banks park their money overnight with the fed because the banks can't hold too much money because a bank is not like a human being or a company cash is the liability for a bank it holds cash and cash deposit for someone else so it's a liability for the bank banks have to be balanced they can't hold too much liabilities and overnight in order to actually balance their book check they give the fed some of the money and they receive collateral and in the morning they take it back it's a very simple instrument just to keep the bank's balance and it's a really good indicator to what's going on in the market right now we're almost at 900 billion just on april three months ago we were at 31 billion dollars being parked at night by the banks right now we're at 900 almost at a trillion dollars that means two things number one the banks have a lot of cash that people have put in cash deposits meaning that the money printer goes generated a lot of cash and now you see the results the other thing is that the banks see no opportunities outside to actually invest this money they literally are willing to take 0.05 overnight interest just to keep the money they can't find any decent investment outside because are expensive stocks real estate everything is just way too expensive so they rather just park their money and get it back for literally nothing or at least almost nothing that's a really good indicator of inflation and now let's talk about counter arguments and yes i've changed angles since i'm debating so the first argument has to do with a 10-year bond essentially the 10-year bond is a debt instrument issued by the u.s government and this is widely considered as a really good instrument to measure what the market is thinking about inflation if you watch my previous video about that you know that the prices are negatively correlated to the yield it's like a car the cheaper you buy the car the more value you're getting right the better deal you're getting the same thing with bonds the cheaper you buy it for the more yield you have and demand plays a huge part in that so if the demand is the prices are actually going down the yield is going up right now the yield went down by 22 and a half percent in the past two months meaning the demand went up by 22.5 in the past month meaning the marking is thinking that over the course of 10 years that whatever two percent this thing is paying is going to be enough to cover inflation now counter argument number two i call the kathy wood argument essentially this is basically saying well yeah warren buffett is right market cap to gdp is very high but that's justified the disruptive power of these technological growth stocks we're dealing with right now the palantirs the teslas they're so big that this price is justified they're about to change the way we do business the way we live and that's why we're pricing in all this future disruption into these stocks right now it's not overvalued it's just priced right again it's a matter of opinion if you cathy would you agree with it if you weren't buffet you're probably laughing your ass off whatever it is you decide for yourself and speaking about kathy wood let's talk about deflation which is the third argument here essentially this argument is basically saying that a company like tesla is gonna take the launch of existing legacy automakers and basically cause a deflationary impact to the market now that's a lot of high words what does it actually mean it's actually very simple let me explain let's say that at a certain city tesla is going crazy it's actually outselling the chevy cars completely and just using chevy as an example not specifically saying anything about chevy but and what will happen in this hypothetical case and of course it is hypothetical what will happen is that a lot of these existing dealerships will close because tesla that took over a lot of this market is now not utilizing the whole dealership structure because they sell direct to consumer so have a lot of growth actually taken into negative because dealerships are closing people don't have jobs and a lot of this growth is actually tamed by the deflationary impact of tesla now tesla is just one example she's saying that about her entire portfolio she's basically saying well our companies are so destructive they're going to put a lot of businesses out of business and cause a deflation which will counteract against the inflationary impact that we're seeing right now matter of opinion now let's talk about item number four and that i call the oil honey trap essentially this has to do with all manufacturers the old producers i don't know if you call them manufacturers they're pumping out of the ground but whatever they're stuck in the golden prison essentially they're like the legacy automakers on tesla they have to pay tesla regulatory credits just to stay in business but by doing so they're killing their own business it's the same thing with oil the old producers have to keep the price at about 70 to 80 just not to go broke the problem is with keeping oil prices so high they're pushing people into renewable energy and when i say people i mean whole economies because when oil prices are so high it's a negative incentive to use oil and a positive incentive to use renewable energy like solar panels like driving a tesla a lot of things are happening that are deflationary because the old producers are keeping the price high they're essentially screwing themselves and they have no choice because they have to basically make a choice either die now or die later essentially they're taking as much profits as they can right now because they know over the course of 10 15 years they're pretty much done much like the legacy automakers the fifth argument i call the jerome powell argument the transitory inflation so you remember how a while back the lumber prices spiked and then they came down and what jerome powell is basically saying hey guys what you're seeing right now is not inflation you're seeing supply chain interruptions not enough people to produce not enough people to distribute we basically have a shitstorm on our hands we just spend a year in lockdown it's gonna take time to produce to go back to production capacity to distribution capacity and you're going to see temporary issues with certain raw materials and commodities and when we go back to full scope of production distribution this will basically go away that's the argument here and now it's time to the conclusion who won me or the other me so what do i think about this well i think a lot of these arguments are very interesting and i'm not going to be sitting here saying that i'm a prophet that knows everything but here's my opinion i think that the biggest problem that we can't counter argument against is the supply of money that increased insanely the zero percent interest that we cannot raise without completely crashing the market basically putting us in limbo that's my biggest concern some of these shortages in the market right now may be temporary technological stocks may be properly priced at certain companies like a tesla or a palantir true these whole arguments make a lot of sense yes bond deals are going down for sure but here's the thing i'm more closer to michael berry than kathy wood on this because i think that inflationary impact is inevitable when you have so much money in the system and so little incentive to save because the interest rates have to stay at very low levels essentially what you have right now and it's about to get worse is that everybody's driving a lambo right now the gardener the pool guy the bartender all driving lambos and ferraris there's so much free money in the market right now basically pushing us on the brink of inflation or even severe inflation i don't agree with michael berry that it's going to be hyperinflation but i think we're actually headed to highly inflationary times stagflation and a lot of issues that we have to resolve and have not been addressed yet and i think that will lead to a market crash in late 2021 early 2022 but again it's just my opinion i'm not a financial advisor i'm just a guy on the internet you have to do your research because this might be inaccurate this might be wrong this might be the ramblings of a madman who knows blah blah mother effing blah i appreciate you spending this few minutes with me thank you so much a huge shout out to the channel members and the patrons i love you all we'll see you guys in the next video
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