저자: TomLee/영상진행자TomNash · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 AI 설비투자와 밀레니얼 세대 자산축적 등을 근거로 강세장이 2035년까지 이어질 수 있다고 주장하며, 동일가중 S&P500 PER(약 16배)이 생각보다 비싸지 않다고 본다. 진행자는 강세장 지속 가능성을 '가능성'으로 평가하며, 현재 약 3년차 상승(약 90%)이 평균 대비 절반 수준이라 10년 강세장 전제는 쉽지 않다고 분석한다. 그는 1999년과 달리 IPO·M&A 과열이 없고 시장엔 불안이 크다고 본다. 다만 정책 충격, 이익 성장 둔화 등 리스크를 언급하며, 투자는 달러코스트애버리징(하락 시 가속 매수) 방식을 권한다. 개별 종목 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
So Tom Lee is now predicting that this bull cycle that we've been a part of for the past couple years is going to last all the way to 2035. Meaning that we have 10 more years of this goodness to enjoy. Now in this video I'm going to do a few things. Number one, I'm going to explain to you the position that Tom Lee is taking.
and he expressed the rationale, the receipts that he brought to the table, everything that stands behind that prediction that he shared with the audience over the past few weeks in different podcasts. I've compiled them all and I kind of give you the highlights of the argument, so to speak. Then I'll share my own analysis and my own breakdown of what he's claiming what the data in the street in the markets is telling me and where do I think this prediction lies on the scale of probability right nothing in life is certain except death and taxes this is neither so don't click nothing don't smash nothing don't buy nothing let's get into it so Tom Lee just came out in CNBC yesterday and he said look shortterm we're looking at a very bullish cycle mainly because the Fed is expected to drop rates and the market is going to price that in, but also because there's a lot of seasonality in Q4 and Q4 tends to be positive, etc., etc., etc.
I'm not so interested in that 3 to four month prediction because to me, as a long-term investor, that's pretty much a wash. I don't care. But he did say that medium-term which means next year the year after he expects the stock market and the economy to continue in a similar path mainly getting fueled by the massive capital expenditures that are happening in the AI space.
Basically, all this investment in infrastructure in artificial intelligence, data centers, all the stuff you've been hearing about for the past few weeks, for the past few months, the Nvidia deal, the AMD deal, the Intel deal, open AAI, everybody's pouring massive amounts of dollars into AI infrastructure and that investment is expected to yield very positive results for the economy and the stock market in the medium-term.
Now, he also said that valuations in the stock market are not as expensive as it would seem to the naked eye. Now, I've been on record showing you that the PE ratio on the S&P 500 is actually historically high right now. It is well above the cutoff point of 24, which is considered the last stand. But Tommy is saying that is an absolute way of looking at the PE ratio on the S&P 500.
Because the S&P 500 is so skewed, is so topheavy, so dominated by the biggest companies in the index. You have to look at equal weight S&P 500 to get a better picture of what's actually going on with valuations. Basically, that the market is not as expensive as the P ratio classically would point to.
And if you look at equal PE, we're looking about 16 PE ratio, price to earnings ratio, which is historically a very low ratio that allows a lot more meat on the bone for investors. Now, he also talked about the fact that there's still a lot of upside right now in the stock market. And the upside is going to come from both the capex, but also from demographics.
He's talking about the fact that we're going into 2035 because the millennials are peaking and they're getting richer full with money and they're going to deploy that capital partially in the stock market as well. Much like the baby boomers peaked towards the late 90s which was the end of the huge bull run of those years.
This bull run is going to end with the peak of the millennials and the Gen Z's in 2035. So this is basically a demographic argument. Now, beyond the demographics, Tomley is also saying, "Look, folks, on the short term, what I'm seeing is a lot of fear and a lot of skepticism from investors who don't trust this rally to be real, which is to me, Tom Lee, that is a sign that there's still more room to go." He's also talking about the fact that the whole US debt issue is overblown.
market cap to GDP is overblown mainly because as long as the United States remains the world's reserve currency, none of this really matters because the US can simply just print on money as if it is a monopoly game. And he's not wrong about that. I'll talk about that in a second. He also speaks of the fact that this ain't 1999.
We don't see the same parameters that we've seen in 1999, such as a very active IPO market where everybody went public, massive M&A activity, lots of euphoria in the stock market. In fact, there's a lot of hesitation, a lot of fear, a lot of anxious people in the stock market, which is a good observation.
I can't I can't argue with that. And the thing is, he's actually talking about this as a possibility. I don't think Tom Lee has ever guaranteed this to be an outcome. I don't think he's ever said, "Look, this is actually what's going to happen no matter what." No. In fact, on multiple interviews, he said, "This is a possibility.
There's certainly a lot of things that can happen that can derail the train, such as a policy shock, such as anything that has to do with inflation, such as economic factors out of control." We'll talk about all these things when I break down his analysis, but he certainly admitted that there's a lot of risks that can derail this train off the tracks.
But the fact that it's not certain doesn't mean it's impossible. In fact, it doesn't mean it's not probable. But in his also credit on the second time here in the show, I also going to point out that when Tom Lee speaks about these things, he always makes it a point to caveat it as far as what is the best behavior for investors in this bull run.
He's not saying mortgage your house, take a loan, and buy right now everything you can just sit there for the next 10 years. He's not preaching irresponsible behavior. In fact, in every single interview, he repeats the same four things. Number one, be an owner of a company, not a trader, which is something I can absolutely subscribe to.
Number two, don't try to time the tops during a bull cycle, which would be literally the equivalent of pissing against the wind. Why would you? Number three is ignore sentiment at all times. In fact, just do the opposite of what the sentiment is. And of course, number four, focus on fundamentals and data, not on short-term that is basically meaningless.
So, I absolutely agree with the methodology. I think a lot of people misunderstand Tom and they think is a permable. But here's the thing. Back in 2020, when everybody started getting bearish, he was bullish. In 2022, when everybody was bearish, he was bullish. He is the sort of analyst that's going to go with his truth no matter what the sentiment on the street is.
Most of these analysts that you're seeing on mainstream media, they'll tell you what you want to hear because that gets attention, that gets clicks, but he always stayed true to his belief. Was he more bullish than bearish over the past 5 years? Sure. But how many times did he go against the grain? A lot more than other investors, a lot more than other analysts, which is why he earns my respect.
Now, let's break down all of these arguments and let's see how probable what Tom Lee is suggesting. So to do that, we got to take a look at the data. And I have the data right in front of me. So the average bull market in the United States usually lasts 4.9 years. Let's call it a five for the sake of the example.
And the average return is about 180%. So normally the average is 5 years 180%. That is a classic bull run. But as you know, the averages are rarely reflected in reality because to create an average, you need something higher, something lower. For example, the S&P 500 averages 10% a year. But catch how many years the S&P 500 actually had with a 10% return.
Almost none. So the fact that the average is five and 180 doesn't mean that every single bull cycle is going to be the same. Now, in our current case, we've been on a bull run for about 3 years. So, let's say 2023, 2024, and 2025 for the most part. So, let's call it a three-year period. So, we're currently 3 years into it with a return of about 90%, which is half the way to the average on the return side and about half the way on the bull cycle.
So, whether Tom Lee is right or wrong, currently we're about halfway to the average. Now what Tom Lee is suggesting is actually doubled than the average. Now doubling than the average which means 10 years of a bull cycle with a return of about 360%. That is a very tall order. Now it doesn't mean that this becomes impossible.
It certainly will be an outlier rally no doubt but it's not impossible. But you got to remember the very important example I gave you just a couple weeks ago about the pig farmer. Remember the pig farmer who was talking about buying the pigs when they're small, feeding them and then selling them when they get fat and big.
The same thing happens in the stock market. Once we get to the point that we are right now, when everything starts to get inflated, the pigs are starting to get fat and fatter and fatter and fatter. This is not the time to absolutely gamble on the fact that Tom Lee is right about this and mortgaging your house and going all in saying, "Well, we got another five years of this, 10 years of this.
Let's go crazy. This is the time to be smart because once you go into our territory right now, which is a multi-year bull cycle, things become very, very dicey. Doesn't mean that what Tom Lee is saying can happen, but it means that you can't let hype and emotions take over your methodology and system and process.
We'll talk about that in a second. Now to his credit, the demographic argument he presented about millennials peing towards 2035, that's not a bad argument because the baby boomers peaked in 999. There's a lot of examples if you go back a 100 years, but if a Tom Lee admits things can go south, there's certainly risks of execution.
We haven't seen AI do what Tom Lee and some other bulls are predicting yet. It hasn't happened yet. So the AI companies still have to execute on the vision which is not 100% guaranteed. Nothing is. You know my standpoint on that, right? Number two, we still have to gamble on the fact that millennials and Gen Z's are not going to suddenly shy away from the stock market and change their investment behavior, change their capital deployment behavior.
I mean, we still don't know for a fact that people will continue to be interested to be in stock market. We'll see. Of course, there's also the policy shock risk which Tommy himself has pointed out to in multiple interviews. The number one thing that I can say here is there's a famous joke about what a donkey is.
And a donkey is basically a horse that was planned and built by the government. So when the government wanted to plan and build a horse, they got a donkey. So what Tommy is saying here and I agree with him that policy shocks can derail this whole thing because the governments have been known in the past to make bad decisions and screw the economy.
So of course that's always a possibility and of course you know you still have to continue to see reasonable growth in earnings and margin to support this rally. The minute earnings growth or margin growth goes below what the expectation is this whole thing has a very very questionable existence. talking about the rally of course now my addition to this is very very simple right I'm not seeing 1999 right here in the stock market I'm not seeing overblown activity in the M&A field I'm not seeing a lot of IPOs of companies that are launching themselves into the shadowsphere with no real products no real earnings and even though there's a lot of positivity in the market I'm also seeing a lot of anxiousness I'm certainly not seeing insanity it's definitely a frothy market with a very high element of hype and FOMO, but it's not to the level of the insanity we've seen in 1999, which is basically all you had to do is set up a company, call it something that ends with the.com, and you became a millionaire overnight.
So, to me, the logic here makes sense. What Tom Lee is saying isn't 100% wrong, but there is no way for me to also confirm that I think it's 100% correct. I think that there's certainly a path to what he's suggesting and I wish that this path actually pans out and he's right. I wouldn't be surprised if he does.
But I'm also preparing to the fact that he may be wrong and if he's wrong I need to be set up in the right way to use a draw down if it comes to improve my position which is exactly the same thing we did with Palunteer. When Palanteer and the rest of the market were flying high from 2020 to 2021 and everybody were fomoing in like crazy, we slowed down.
We slowed down and we waited for a chance to double down when the stock started collapsing. And as it collapsed from 30 to 20 to 10 to six, we started loading up more and more and more. And we use the entire year of 2022 to build a position Palunteer and actually launch ourselves in the stratosphere in 2023, four and currently five because we were disciplined.
The same thing applies to the stock market. Whether you're investing in individual stocks or a broad market index like the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ, it doesn't matter. You have to be responsible. If you want to take advantage of what Tom is saying, but you still want to predict your ASP in the case is wrong and you want to create a system for all weather.
You have to have a plan. And the plan to me is very very simple. It's not even complicated. The strong part about this plan is math and data and statistics. The hard part about this plan is that it takes a lot of emotional discipline to follow through. And the plan is very simple. When everybody goes hype and everybody's obsessively positive about the stock market, we continue to invest, but we invest a little bit slower.
When everybody is starting to get negative about the stock market, we continue to invest, but we continue to invest a little bit faster. That is called the dollar cost average double down system. We buy at all times. When the market goes into insanity mode, we slow down. When the market drops, we increase the speed of deployment of the cash.
And we do that over the course of a few years, bringing our average a lot closer to the bottom without timing the market even once. So, it doesn't really matter if Tommy is right or wrong. This system, as long as you do it correctly, is going to bring you home. Now, in the case of buying the S&P 500 or a broad market index, it's really all you got to know.
If you are interested in spicing up your portfolio and investing in actual companies and individual stocks, that's a whole different story because doubling down into a bad business, doubling down into a bad company is not going to save you from the fact that you've made the wrong choice. Okay? So, if you are interested in learning how to invest in good companies, so you're not dollar cost averaging three years into a piece of trash, you have to learn how to spot good businesses, how to evaluate good companies, and how to find investment opportunities that are worth your money.
So, you're not basically throttling all the way down in neutral gear and not going anywhere, sometimes in reverse. For that, I offer you a chance to join my academy over at the Rock Academy on Patreon. patreon.com/todommnash. We have 25,000 members in the academy learning every day how to get better at spotting good investments, how to get better at spotting good companies, good businesses, fundamental analysis, no stock picks, no trading, no options, no technical analysis.
We don't do none of this. We learn the system. We learn how to identify good businesses to invest in for the long haul. If you find that interesting and you want to do this for the long term and you're not trying to sprint your way to quick money, we would love to have in the academy. The links are below. Would love to see you there. I'll see you next time.
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