저자: TomNash · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적은 매출 전년비 69% 성장, 총마진 60%로 둔화·마진 압축이 있었으나 데이터센터 매출 390억달러(전년비 73%)는 견조하다고 봄. 중국 H20 수출제한으로 약 105억달러 매출 손실 발생했지만 주가에 큰 영향 없음. 주가 상승은 AI 추론 토큰 10배 성장, 에이전트 도입, 정부 AI 인프라 수요 등 스토리에 기인. 포워드 PE 약 40배, PEG 약 1, Rule of 40 약 100~120으로 비싸지 않다고 평가. 자체 DCF(매출성장률 40% 가정) 주당 210.82달러로 약 56% 저평가, 5년 시나리오 상단 481달러 제시. 장기 관점 매수 유효 견해.
다듬은 글
So, Nvidia's earnings are out and there is a lot to talk about, folks. A lot of craziness, a lot of surprises, a lot of unexpected developments. This was not a plain vanilla quarter at all. A lot to talk about today. So, stay tuned. Don't click nothing. Don't smash nothing. Don't buy nothing. Now, as you know, Nvidia, that is the 800B gorilla in the room, which means that if Nvidia sneezes, everybody will get wet.
So whether you hold Nvidia shares or not, this and what happened yesterday with their earnings really has a massive impact on your portfolio. So I urge you to listen. Now if you look basically on the numbers from 10,000 ft, everything looks great, right? Nvidia beat earnings per share. They beat revenue.
That's the seventh straight time they have done that. They've also delivered almost 70% year-over-year growth. That is a far cry from the 260% we had last time we did this, but still very, very solid. And guidance is okay. It's not a surprising guidance. It's basically as expected. So, nothing ecstatic, nothing crazy, definitely not on Nvidia standards.
A decent quarter, robust numbers, but not a lot of excitement and euphoria. And still, the stock was up. Why? I'll explain everything because there's a lot more to these reports beyond the basic numbers you're seeing on the screen right here. Let me show you. So let's start first and foremost right that 69% growth we got right 69% growth this is the slowest revenue growth pace Nvidia showed us of the past two years and if you couple that with the 60% gross margin which is about 15% below the last time we've done this so we have eroding margins and we have declining revenue growth numbers So the revenue growth is slowing down and the margins are compressing.
Two things I talked about in yesterday's video to pay attention to. I told you once that happens, this is indication that Nvidia's competition is coming along and actually grabbing more and more market share. That's just a natural development. Nothing to be freaked out about. Every single business that starts like this when you have one major company that dominates initially the margins are insane and the revenue growth is insane but then the competition starts biting etc etc.
This is absolutely normal at 69% growth and 60% revenue sorry at 69% growth and 60% gross margin it's still a very robust business. Now if you look at the data center right the data center is pretty much why people buy this company. I've said it yesterday I'm going to say it again. Nobody cares about the other stuff.
That is just gravy. The gaming stuff, all the other stuff, that is gravy. That is the bonus. That is the cherry on top. People are buying Nvidia because of the data centers. Data centers this quarter derived $39 billion. That's about 90% of Nvidia's entire revenues. Growth year-over-year is 73%. Not bad at all.
Quarter over quarter 10%. Well, it's not decelerating. At least as revenues from data centers, which is the one part you should care about, revenue growth is not slowing down. In fact, quarter of a quarter, it is increasing, which is good news if you know how to look under the hood. Now, I'm not here to fluff Nvidia.
Not at all. We'll talk a lot about the risks and the stuff but right now the biggest problem invidia and that is why these earnings soured a little bit compared to where they should have been is basically what happened with China. The China impact the regulation the limitation impact on Nvidia is quite significant and how significant you'll see in a second.
So on April, I think it was April 9th, we've got the limitation that you know, you know, you guys can't sell the H20s anymore to China. At that point immediately, Nvidia writes off $4.5 billion. That's basically lost revenue. And then we find out this quarter they've also had $2.5 billion which they were unable to ship compared to loss of revenue of $8 billion which means that 8 plus 2 and a half equals $10.5 billion which Nvidia should have made this quarter but didn't make because of the self-inflicted wound by the US government and the regulation and restrictions.
Now I'm not taking a position here whether it's good or bad. This is besides the point. It is what it is. I mean we're just here to allies. Basically without the China issues, Nvidia would have had another $10.5 billion dollars of revenue and the numbers would have seen completely different. So all I'm saying here is that make sure you understand where the decline in revenue growth is actually coming from.
A lot of it is actually coming from China. But as you've noticed, the share price didn't take a hit. Why do people think this China thing is not for real? I don't think so. I think there's a different reasons and I'll show you all these reasons in just a second. So bear with me here. So right now if you look at the Chinese business of Nvidia, it is significant.
There's no doubt about it. Right? We have about 20% of sales going to China. We have a very very tough gap to fill right now. You know, when you lose 20% of your business overnight, that's a tall order for Jensen to actually fill. And he was critical about it as you would expect him to be. He was pissed off in his legal kind of politically correct way, but he still took some shots saying, "Look, folks, this is pointless.
China is still going to develop their AI. You're just going to give the Chinese competition time to develop competition to ourselves and basically supply these chips. So, we're not going to do it. The Chinese will develop it." So, you're just hurting Nvidia. You're hurting a US company and you're giving the Chinese competition a chance, which so far we didn't give them.
We were stepping on the neck and now you just gave them a gift. And basically you hurt Nvidia. You don't hurt the Chinese. You don't hurt the Chinese competition. You just hurt Nvidia. So Jens's critic of of this is actually quite logical. I get it. But besides airing the grievances, you know, that's a Seinfeld reference from Festivus, you know.
Okay. So he aired the grievances, but at the end of the day, he still has to make money. And that is why I love Jensen because he did that but then he pivoted to actually getting investors excited about what's actually coming down the pipeline which is a lot more important a lot bigger than the loss of the Chinese revenues.
So basically when Jensen was talking he said look folks this is annoying we get it trust me you know I I get it but this is not a thesis changing event for you all the investing community. And let me explain why that was Jensen. You're saying look folks number one we have massive growth in AI with agents growth the growth right now in AI is absolutely exponential and right now when he was basically mentioning look the number of tokens from LLM use grow by you know 10x uh over the course of of a year absolutely insane so the growth is beyond exponential it is insane and he's now saying look folks governments are talking to us companies are talking to hyperscalers.
This is essential infrastructure like electricity, like plumbing. I mean, everybody's going to need this. So, we're just in the beginning stages of laying down this infrastructure. And he's saying, look, we also, you know, Blackwell is in full scale production. The demand is insane. We're talking to governments in the Gulf countries in Japan talking about building AI factories laying down actually governmentalbased AI infrastructure which is going to expand the business a lot more than the current you know 50% of business right now is coming from hyperscalers now we're talking to governments of building out of their AI infrastructure this is pretty much the biggest thing that could have happened to Nvidia they went from you know working with hyperscalers to now talking and working potentially with governments That is a whole different enchilada, especially when you're talking about the Gulf countries where the money is basically no issue at all.
And that is why I think a lot of investors were excited about this part because even though China loss is real, there's a lot of good coming up right now. If you look at Nvidia, yes, they are definitely the leader in the room, but they're not the only game in town as far as lower tier stuff. You know AMD is making moves, Marll is making moves, even Intel is coming from the grave trying to take a bite.
Obviously, this is more of a lower tier segments, but they are creating down price pressure. You know, when you're offering cheaper products, maybe they're not as good, but you're basically pulling the price from the bottom and you're trying to bring down the price. The same thing happened with BYD and Tesla.
Tesla's cars were premium, BYD cars were simpler, but there is a downwards pressure on the price if you have such a cheap competition, even though it is lower tier. So yes, that is pulling down the margins a little bit. Sure, but at the end of the day, there's still consensus that AMD and Marvel and Intel, they're not even close.
Right now, we've got Nvidia as the consensus market leader of about 80% 70 to 80% of the entire market. That is absolutely insane. So the bottom line here is quite simple. They're number one in GPU. They're number one in AI compute. They have the best hardware. They have top-of-the-line software. They have an ecosystem which is unrivaled.
And they have strategic clients and partners which now will be actually diversified by more governments on top of the cloud infrastructure. So I would say that given these earnings and given the blow that Nvidia took from the Chinese regulation, that was a really good example of how strong this company is.
the China thing, you know, losing 20% of your revenue should have crushed that stock, should have really absolutely crushed these earnings. But you can see because the moat is so strong for this company. When you have such a strong moat, it doesn't really matter. You can take a punch. Your chin is made of titanium.
This is insane. And that is why investors are excited saying, "Well, look, you took such a hit from China and still the earnings were decent, better than decent, right? and you have a lot of new upside that we haven't even really kind of priced in yet. So if you look under the hood of Nvidia, right?
So you've got data center revenue at 40 billion. That's about 89% of revenues. 50% of clients are the big cloud service providers, the big four, right? So the takeaway here is very very simple, right? Even though this 40 billion and the 70% of revenue growth we've seen is strong, it ain't 262%. Right?
70 ain't 262%. So there is a slowdown in the growth from this segment obviously right whether it be competition whether it be other things but it's important to acknowledge that and that is absolutely okay because we've talked about it and we said look Nvidia is not going to provide you with 200 and 100% revenue growth every single quarter every single year that's not going to happen at some point there is a slowdown in revenue growth and there's margin compression that's just normal what's going on here is just normal development ment.
Now, it actually has a massive impact on valuations because a lot of yahoos out there were doing DCF models with Nvidia with a 100% revenue growth over the next 5 years, which I think is ridiculous. It's kind of silly. I think what's true here, and I'll show you in a second, my own DCF is actually to look at this 70% as still a stepping stone.
We're still going to go lower. Nvidia is probably going to find itself in that 30 to 40% revenue growth very, very quickly. And that's still absolutely amazing. I'll show you in a second why, but nothing to freak out about. You know, revenue growth decline is just normal development. Now, I've asked you this question a second ago, and I said, "Look folks, why do you think that the share price basically went up despite, you know, not as exciting results?" And the reason is very simple.
A lot of people may say, well, very strong numbers, right? The numbers were good. Objectively, the numbers were great. Sure. But compared to previous Nvidia numbers, me, right? So this was not the main reason that was not the main cause folks. The main cause was these two things which I and I alluded to earlier.
Number one is the commentary from Jensen basically saying look we have 10x growth growth sorry in inference tokens. Basically LLM use over the past year is up 10x. On top of this we have AI agent adoption through the roof completely skyrocketing and we have governments talking to us about building massive infrastructure.
That is why the share price is up. The numbers were strong enough to support that. But the reason is because the story about the future is so compelling. So right now invidia went from in these earnings at least from let's see the numbers. The numbers are insane. We're going to buy the stock. Right now the numbers are groo but not incredible.
But now the story is the driving factor behind this. You know, that's not ideal when you're looking at short-term risk management because a story and the narrative can change really, really quickly. But again, in the case of Nvidia, a lot of this is already founded and established. The governments are actually talking to them.
AI agents are a thing and LLM use is obviously going through the roof. All of these things, even though there's still more on this story side, they're all very, very serious things that, you know, a lot of investors are betting on. And it's not a stupid bet to make if you have patience. I'll talk about that in a second.
It's not going to happen overnight. None of this. Now, basically, the bottom line is very simple, right? I think that it's obvious that the demand for AI is so massive that given the fact that Nvidia is in the forefront of that demand as pretty much one of the only games in town, if not the only game in town, is that the demand is so big that even the Chinese band can't derail Nvidia.
That's why the numbers the way they are. Quite simple. Now basically let's talk valuation here. A lot of people will tell you you know you know given the fact that it's been 24 hours since the earnings that oh my god the the valuation is stretched. That's the verbiage you're going to be hearing. It's stretched.
I think Nvidia has risks. I think Nvidia has problems. Do I think that Nvidia has a stretched valuation? Well, if you ask me about Palanteer or Tesla, sure, short-term the valuation is very stretched, but Nvidia a stretched valuation. Let's see the numbers. I always say the proof is in the pudding, folks.
Not in the arguments you hear in mainstream media. So, 40p compared to Palanteer 600 doesn't seem expensive. In fact, for this sort of company, 44p is quite reasonable. In fact, I would even say it might be cheap. PG ratio of one as good as they come. I mean that's not expensive that's not exuberant right of 40 give or take 100 110 120 depends on how you look at it but definitely one of the best rule of 40 results in the stock market if not the best.
So based on these three metrics forward PE, PG ratio and rule of 40, it's going to be very very hard. In fact, I would say it would be a stretch to say Nvidia has a stretch relation. So no, Nvidia is not expensive. It is not stretched. It has other problems, but it definitely not a valuation problem.
Now, if you take a look at Stock MVP, which is my platform I've built to evaluate stocks and analyze stocks, we have a scorecard here, and we ran it for Nvidia right here. Right? So we ran Nvidia through the scorecard and what we found based on these 10 metrics that we look at such as net profit margin, short interest, scalability, uh cash to debt, lots of different stuff we look at here, but the result is 90 out of 100.
This is one of the best scorecards we had ever in the history of stock MVP. So given these 10 metrics, Nvidia only lost on price to earnings being above 50 current price to earnings. If you look at forward price to earnings, it actually is below 50, which will bring this up to 95 once the numbers get updated.
So definitely scorecard wise, this company is near perfection. It's chef's kiss. Now I promise to show you my valuation. We'll talk valuation in a second. Right. So this is the stock MVP DCF model. You can run it in any stock, any company, right? I ran it here on Nvidia, right here, Nvidia. And what I've done here is I assume that Nvidia will be at 40% revenue growth.
Now, it's currently at 70 and I assume 40. And I've been saying 40 for a couple of months already because I told you this 100 is not going to be sustainable, right? That 40% revenue growth, which is significantly lower, almost half of where they are right now. Nvidia's DCF valuation is $210.82, which means it's 56% and 57% almost undervalued.
So the actual price DCF- wise at 40% growth right now, as you can see here, is $210 compared to the current 134, 140, 145, depends on where it's at by the time you see this video. So DCF- wise at 40% revenue growth, this is a quite an undervalued stock surprisingly because when you see leaders in industry and you see companies who are basically ahead of everybody else, usually the price is adjusted accordingly and you're paying for a premium not here.
Now this is our five-year price model, right? So this called the SE valuator on stock MVP. You basically plug in all the data about the stock and you assume what would be the revenue growth over the next five years and it actually gives you a fiveyear price target for Nvidia. So I assume 30% for conservative and 40% for optimistic.
Right? And this is what I got. $334 on the bare case, $47 on the midcase and $481 on the optimistic 5-year case, giving it a 256% upside. So, and I would also argue that these numbers are quite conservative. So, as you can see here, I am very bullish about the stock. I'm not afraid about the revenue growth decline and the margin compression.
That is normal development. And based on my model, there's still a lot of meat on the bone here. Of course, you can get stockp.com and do it for yourselves. Adjust the numbers and see where you're at. This is a tool for you guys to use. It's literally yours. Go get it right now. And I've also kind of highlighted this right now.
My take on this is very very simple right this kind of the bottom line right so we've got great numbers from Nvidia no doubt China risk is definitely real but not thesis ending it is manageable with AI factories governments agents LLM adoption we have massive upside for Nvidia which is still untapped which means that the bottom line is very simple for long-term patient investors Nvidia remains a very compelling investment in my opinion.
Of course, might be wrong, might be inaccurate, might be the ramblings of madman. Shout out to the OGs that know what I'm talking about. You know, do your research. Now, if you actually want to read a proper deep dive, which I've done about Nvidia's earnings, uh, which was posted on our Patreon page, you can find it right now on the academy, patreon.com/dommnashacademy.
There is a complete Q1 deep dive of everything you needed to know about Nvidia and was afraid to ask. Go get it right now. It's for the academy members. And if you just want to learn how to improve and how to become a better long-term investor, k.com/domeshould love to see you there. See the next one. Peace.
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