저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 최근 조정이 과매도 후 건강한 과정이며 시장이 연내 상승 랠리로 갈 것이라 주장. 단기 과도 반응 후 3번 금리인하 시나리오로 수렴할 것, 공매도 잔고 급증은 긍정적 촉매라고 봄. 연준 금리인하는 경기 둔화가 아닌 선제적 조치일 수 있으며 미 재정(이자부담 GDP 2.5%)을 고려하면 고금리 유지는 어렵다는 논리. 단, 유가 급등 등 인플레 리스크는 변수로 언급. 영상 발언자는 원 발언 기준 Tom Lee 측 주장과 진행자 해설이 섞여 있음.
다듬은 글
hey this is Tom Nash and I'm going to give you the bottom line first in this video Tom Lee was on CNBC explain why the market is just correcting and why we're about to see a massive Bull Run for the rest of 2024 that's just the bottom line for you now for those of you who understand this video before you label this guy as a perable which he kind of is but hold on a second before you say he's a perable remember he did call 2023 perfectly Against the Grain and number two he definitely has the best hair in finance so you can't bet against that that books aside Tom Lee actually laid out some really interesting arguments which I want you to hear so let's start with the first clip check it out inflation expectations have way overshot to the upside you know onee forward inflation is at one at 4.5% it's where it was in October 2022 March 23 October 2 23 so at the peak pessimism so this is a very interesting argument Tom Le is basically saying here look guys the same way that you the stock market overreacted pricing in six rate cuts for the 2024 year before that was clear before that was certain you are now overreacting again in the opposite direction pricing in one or zero rate Cuts or maybe even a hike both scenarios are unrealistic but again I'm going to explain this part what Tom Lee is alluding to is that this Market in 2024 we existent it's a very bipolar Market by Design because a lot of the trading is now being done by Bots algorithmic trading moves like a school of fish it's no longer human beings that trading a lot of algo trading is going on a lot of bots going on so there's overreactions all the time and between these overreactions we find an average at some point so what Tomy is saying is just you know that's just in way of the market right now we overacted up we overacted down but at the end of the day we're going to keep moving towards the three Cuts scenario and that scenario is currently now not priced in because the market Market has gone in priced in one rate cut and when that happens the market is going to go up again that's a valid argument especially when you look at the oversold overbought numbers as I showed you in my previous video where I told you hey do not be played by this mainstream media that they're showing you that the market is collapsing space aliens are investing in basically the collapse of the world and you should all sell right I told you don't be fooled by this correction this is not the end of the world this is not a stock market crash but I've also showed you how quickly we have changed and how we went in one month from February to March to April from completely being overbought to oversold in March of 2024 we had 46% of stocks being overbought on the S&P 500 in April of 2024 when I showed you yesterday we had 6% of stocks being overbought so we went down from 46 to6 within 1 month so basically 94% of stocks right now in the S&P 500 are no longer overbought does this mean we turn around today no but basically what Tomley is saying here is that the market is currently oversold that's one thing yeah short interest has soared uh like one week Goldman shows onewe short interest in ETFs Rose by the most since 2022 median short interest in stocks is at basically threeyear high and now we just need a positive Catalyst I think as long as inflation tracks better than expected uh I think we're in a good position to rally and this is a very interesting argument so Tom Lee was on CNBC before the March CPI data came out before the inflation of March came out and he was very categoric about it he was very adamant saying look it's going to be cooler than expected the market is going to fly up he obviously got it wrong which is okay we all get stuff wrong all the time this clown thought that 2023 is going to be a stock market crash I mean we all get stuff wrong all the time so I don't hold it against him but it's funny and it's interesting because you know when you get punch in the face by reality sometimes you're a little bit more careful so this time he coming on and it's talking about PC data by the way PC is something that the FED absolutely loves to look at saying look if PC data if PC data comes in cooler than expected that's going to be a major Catalyst for the stock market to basically break away from this little bit negativity we saw of the past two weeks obviously he's not wrong that's 100% true the only problem is we don't know if PC data comes in cooler or hotter we don't have a crystal ball we don't have the inside track I hope he's right of course but maybe he's not but actually I don't think he needs to be right on this even if PC data does not come in cooler I think we are still on track for three rate Cuts this year and the reason might be something that nobody else is talking about I'm going to get to it a little bit later let's keep watching what Tomy said and then I'll explain you why I think the FED is going to cut three times no matter what unless of course you know inflation is going to go through the roof but unless inflation goes through the roof we're going to have three Cuts this year probably because of something completely unrelated to inflation but let's keep going with Tom Lee check this out well they say bull markets rise in an escalator fall in an elevator so it's what you'd expect in a rising trend is sharp Corrections and it shakes people out and now this is a very interesting point he's making here he's saying that market Corrections especially sharp Corrections like the one we just had shake out people what does that actually mean what he's actually trying to say here is that this is healthy and it happens two or three times a year if you're talking about a 5% pullback three times a year a 10% pullback once per year every single year even in a great year what actually does for the market pullbacks like this it basically cleans up a lot of the aggressive mindset a lot of the people who think that oh my God yeah Nidia is going to go to you know $4,000 per share piler is going to go to 500 this year and all this stuff it cleans out a lot of this aggressiveness the unrealistic expectations and it brings the market back to reality which is healthy I mean we don't want price action to go absolutely ballistic outside of Stratosphere we want the price action to follow as much as possible the fundamentals so every once in a while a correction like this is healthy because it brings people back down to earth that's okay another interesting argument is that geopolitics is getting better you know oil is down 3% over the past 5 days currently at $82 we were already at 90 no it's good for inflation it's good for CPI and it's definitely good for Tom Le's argument that inflation is cooling down now inflation was high for about a year and a half he's right now here's the crazy part it never really reached the levels that we've seen not in the length not in the height of the 70s inflation we never really hit the Paul vuler era where it was sticky in for a long time and absolutely insane there's a good argument here to be made which I think I agree with is that you know we're seeing right now is not a replay of the 70s in fact this is the you know the last breath of inflation before you know we move on to bigger and better things and before the market goes back into bullish Cycles it is true but you have to remember there's a huge huge Mary Ranch here a huge unexpected development that may happen or may not happen you see at the end of the day you have to understand that oil prices are going to be a huge Catalyst and wherever this thing goes if oil prices for whatever reason may be summer travel or geopolitical tensions because you know the Middle East can reignite at any moment if oil actually shoots up to the hundreds then inflation is going to be absolutely horrendous and then the whole theory of Tom Lee of the FED actually dropping rates they're not going to pan out now I will also talk about the fact that there's a lot of chatter right now about you know the FED pivoting doesn't necessarily mean a good thing for the stock market look you have to understand you know um empirical data like this whenever we had rate Cuts in the past for the most part the rate cuts the pivot by the FED comes into weakness the FED doesn't pivot unless they have to right usually that happens when something breaks unemployment usually happens GDP comes down in the economic crisis or recession or whatever you want to call it some underlying thing in the economy breaks which forces the f to start losing the rate and actually going down in the interest rates right now we're not in that situation right now the Federal Reserve looks at the market GDP is growing very quickly unemployment is very low so there's nothing that's supposed to indicate a weakness in the economy so if the FED in this scenario chooses to bring rates down as a proactive measure not as a reactive measure then we don't expect to see the market basically tanking because money is now cheaper it's absolutely insane think about it what you're saying here the argument here is um yeah so the FED is going to make money cheaper more accessible it's going to flood the market with huge amounts of resources and that's going to crash the stock market I think you don't understand the difference between cation and correlation there's a lot of times where the FED pivot came at times of great economic weakness and that impacted stock market but I can assure you there's never been a time where the FED actually drop rates in good economy and cause the stock market to come down another interesting argument here is that the FED doesn't really mean the tough talk we've seen over the past few times we heard John Paul talk and others because the FED talks tough to bring up inflation expectations and bring down excitement so that people actually spend less because they anticipate harsher Economic Times and then inflation will come down essentially creating negative sentiment brings down inflation as a self-fulfilling prophecy insane right but it actually is true if people are excited if they think inflation is over it's party time they're going to be spending like crazy pushing inflation up it's very very simple now we have to talk about why I think the FED unless something crazy happens unless we see oil prices go to $110 unless CPI goes to six 7% unless something crazy happens the FED will have to drop rates unfortunately it has to do with the way the US economy is built right now we have a problem we have GDP of $21 trillion that's what we generate a year on the other hand we owe $31 trillion so we owe way more than we produce sadly just four years ago our debt was $17 trillion so we actually produced more than we owed but you see the real problem is that the United States is the reserve currency with the world and that status Beyond just being good Cloud actually allows the US to sustain the current standard of economy it has because if everybody else wants the dollar there's high demand globally for the US dollar the US dollar is the world money everybody wants it if everybody wants it every time the US government issues bonds essentially borrows money everybody wants that dollars and because the demand is high the price goes up the yield goes down the US has to repay less interest than other countries when they borrow money and because it's they're cheap for the US to borrow money it can essentially borrow money to infinity and provide all these resources all this infrastructure all this investment in its own GDP fueling its own growth essentially creating an infinite money glitch the problem is that money glitch also is predominantly dependent on being able to borrow money for cheap but what happens when you yourself basically increase your own interest rates well in that case you create a problem for yourself because that money you're boring right now you have to pay way higher interest than you did before you raised your own interest so just to give you an example when we had 0% interest in the pandemic good old days H the annual return that the United States paid the interest payments pretty much were one and a half% of the US GDP so 1 and a half% of us gross domestic product in uh 2020 in 2021 was pretty much interest payments right now we're at 2 and 1 half% of GDP so we went up within a couple years from 1 and a half% to 2 and a half% of GDP of interest payments repayments that is literally more than we spend on roads education and Healthcare and a bunch of other stuff it's absolutely insane 2 and a half% of GDP going to interest payments and the way the money printer is going right now it's not going to slow down anytime soon we're basically increased the spending on interest payments within a year by 40% because while in 2022 we spent $480 billion repaying interest last year we paid $660 billion in interest we spiked our own interest payments by 40% in a single year by raising interest to 5% so when you think you have a tough time because you have a mortgage now that's way more expensive look at this 5% interest means 40% more interest repayment that means less money goes to stuff that generate GDP when you don't invest as much in education infrastructure industry then your GDP doesn't grow as fast and your economy slows down and you might create recession so the US literally cannot afford to stay in a 5% interest for long so longer higher all this crap is just empty talk by the FED unless we have like 8 9% inflation that would be worse than this we're going down and we're going down probably three times this year unless of course oil spikes to the 100s 110 120 in that case all bets are off but the real question is how am I playing this well my next play increase the hell out of my Tesla position buy into the weakness m not playing the earnings game at all I don't care if it actually comes down on earnings great I'm emptying the tank I'm dcing I'm buying more bullish Assets in a bare Market because Tesla is in a bare Market on its own and it is a bullish asset if you actually understand the numbers and I've made many videos explaining it and the reason why is very simple three letters FSD Monopoly industry standard Tesla licensing 80% gross margin infinite money glitch very very cheap great business bad stock exactly what I want I'll see you in the next one
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