저자: TomNash · 외국인
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엔비디아는 AI 하드웨어 독점에 가까워 향후 10년 성장 여력이 크며, 현재 선행 PE 29배로 과열 아님. 현재가 $950은 DCF 역산 시 연 44% 매출성장을 반영하나 충분히 가능한 수준. 단기 변동성(평균 11% 조정)은 불가피하므로 고점 추격 대신 DCA 전략 권장: 52주 고점~20% 하락 구간($950~$780)은 DCA 감속, 그 아래는 가속.
다듬은 글
Nvidia earnings are tomorrow May 22nd everybody's excited the big question for me is this a buy at $950 per share just before earnings now a lot of decisions to be made in the next 24 hours so let's get started now this isn't my first rodeo it's also not my first video about Nvidia my first video was in October of 2020 telling you this thing is about to explode the stock was $138 per share it is now $ 950 so it's safe to say that we were in pretty early I'm not going to say we were the earliest but we hit it right in time now about 6 months ago I've also released a video telling you hey this isn't too late this is your last chance before the stock doubles again 6 months ago video comes out stock does 90% so it's safe to say we're not riding the Nvidia hype train here in this channel we've been through it quite early and we actually know what we're talking about now the big question is what's going on right now the stock is obviously up 200% of the past year 90% of the past 6 months so is it too expensive at 950 should you wait after earnings let's dig in now look AI is the king of this new Industrial Revolution it's all about Ai and Nvidia is all about the AI Hardware all the infrastructure that every single company in America and pretty much in the entire world world right now is built on AI Hardware that is manufactured by Nvidia now you're going to be surprised to know that Nvidia also has it hands in other plates a lot of software related products for AI also come from Nvidia it's a multi-headed monster when it comes to Ai and it's not by coincidence Nvidia spent the last 10 years ever since about 2015 developing AI products on the hardware and software site they've gotten into this quite early and now now they're ripping the benefits now after open AI boosted the entire AI industry Nvidia basically flew outside of the stratosphere because everybody wants their stuff even if you have other Alternatives right now in the market and you don't have a lot people are willing to wait months and months and months to get the Nvidia stuff this is the gold standard it's pretty much a monopoly right now now how long is it going to stay Monopoly nobody really knows but it is at least years away from actual competition now I'm going to be very clear here and I want you to listen to me a lot of people will tell you that Nvidia is just another case of Cisco when the internet came up Cisco was doing a lot of infrastructure work it flew up out of the stratosphere for the same reasons and then it landed back to Earth now this isn't the same story not at all with the invention of Internet a lot of one-time infrastructure Investments had to be made with Cisco this is absolutely just the ground level of next 10 years of a complete revamp of the way we do business in America in the Western World pretty much everywhere Nvidia is going to be providing the hardware for this industry at least for the next 10 years at the very least and even if we have some competition enter this Market in three or four or five years and Nvidia loses some of its pricing power at the very least it becomes a multi-headed monster like Microsoft Google and Amazon in cloud services so Nvidia at the very least in 5 years holds about 30% of this Market they're not going to go away and the level of obsolesence of hardware and software in this business is absolutely insane this isn't the internet for the next 10 15 20 years there's going to be a lot of business to be made and Nvidia is going to have a huge chunk of it and a lot of people are freaking out right now because we're hitting all-time highs both on NASDAQ and the S&P 500 and even the Dow Jones so people are naturally fearful about what's going on and that is a valid concern the only issue is that this is a once in a couple of decades event the last time we had a similar event like this was pretty much the invention of the internet if we kind of track it back all the way to 1994 with the launch of Netscape then we had about 120% on the NASDAQ for the next two years after that if we kind of look at the invention of AI as the release of chat GPT back in November of 2022 the ndaq only did about 58% since so if we compare what happened with Netscape to what's going on with with chat GPT we're still halfway there and I'm going to even argue that chat GPT is a much more critical invention than Netscape this is probably as big as electricity so I'm expecting a way bigger bull cycle for this thing now I'm going to be straight forward with you that doesn't mean that we're going to go straight up into the elevator outside of the stratosphere there going to be a lot of pullbacks a lot of volatility I'll show you in a second exactly how insane this can be Nvidia is trading at $950 per share that is a 52 we High all-time high whatever you want to call this at the very least very close to it the thing is NVIDIA is actually trading at forward PE of only 29 when Microsoft is a 35 AMD is a 30 and plenty of other companies are in the 50s so 29p the best AI Hardware the Monopoly in the entire AI infrastructure industry is trading at 29p not expensive I guess it's not Penny picking off the railroad tracks like some would want but it's not an expensive stock now if you look at the company from a valuation perspective and you run a DCF kind of reverse engineered DCF you look at this price right now $950 and you kind of reverse engineer it backwards to see what kind of growth percentage is assumed here so we've done it and at $950 at 10% discount this reflects a 44% annual revenue growth for the next 5 years in video has done that and some over the past 5 years Nvidia has increased its revenues by 400% over the past 3 years by 260% over the past year by 125% so putting on a 45% increase on revenues per year for the next five years on a company like Nvidia with everything that's going on in the AI sector is not outside the realm of reason I'm not saying that's a cheap assumption I'm just saying that if anybody can do it it's Nvidia and so far they've done much much better than that 45% having said that Nvidia still has a lot of risks built in it's not like buying a Government Bond it's not like a treasury there's a lot of risks involved right now we're looking video everything looks speechy 54% operating margin 250% increase in cash over the past 5 years the company is doing great the margins are spectacular the demand is endless but at some point there's a good chance the competition will come they're going to bite into the market share of Nvidia and also reduce its pricing power cutting into the margins that might happen you might have an economic downturn we might have a General market crash or at least a pullback geopolitical risks are always there and at some point Nvidia won't be Monopoly that's the thing that we also have to understand here it's not going to remain a monopoly forever but at the very least we're talking about Nvidia still holding about 30% of that market even once it actually is filled with more competitors now short-term volatility on a stock like Nvidia is something that you can't ignore we as humans we tend to kind of ignore the idea that the stock can absolutely swing in any direction but it can and it will and it's going to be very very painful now the stock went up 90% over the past six months that's a lot it's up 200% of the past year it's not going to just keep going up like this forever without pulling back without correcting you have to understand it's not just a possibility it's not a question of if it's a question of when now you look at the stock market right now and the numbers are spectacular the first 6 months of 2024 were absolutely out of this world now we did 10 and a half% on the S&P 500 just in q1 alone another 1% in Q2 but to get a 10% return on the S&P 500 within the first quarter of the year only happened 11 times since 1950 so in 75 years this happened 11 times it doesn't happen often now the good news is when that happens those 11 times 10 out of 11 times the market kept going up for another 11% from that point on the problem is that whenever we have this exuberant Market the volatility is absolutely insane even in years when we had 10% Plus in q1 and another 11% till the end of the year the average pullback in the market like that since 1950 to today was 11% 11% pullback on on the S&P 500 was the average that means that the stock like n can drop and swing like crazy it's true that we have a lot of money of the sideline there's a lot of money market accounts right now dying to jump back in it's true that the Middle East didn't really break out into this whole Regional War oil prices are low it's true that the rates will probably come down everything is 100% true but the market is currently shortterm in an overbought position and it just keeps going up so shortterm volatility for NVIDIA is something that you have to be careful about even if you love the stock and since none of us can really time the market and we don't have a time machine the only way to get into Nvidia at this price level with this expected volatility in the short term is not to try and time the market instead of chasing the stock and fing into it and trying to catch it before it explodes again be smart do what we've done for the past four years years on our community we started DCA dollar Coast average into the stock in October 2020 when the stock was $138 per share we have been dollar cost averaging ever since and we're sitting pretty we've never chased the stock what we've done in our community by the way you can check it out at patreon.com Nash what we've done in the community is essentially dollar cost average through the past four years but right now is the perfect example of a time where we slow down the DCA we ramp it up when the stock drops and we slow it down when the stock is peing next to its 52 we High basically to keep it very simple if the stock is anywhere from the 52 week high to 20% below that so from $950 to $780 that is the range when you still want to DC slow let's say that they have a bad earnings reaction or whatever happens or in two weeks in two months the stock drops below $780 below that 20% off of the 52e high then you want to double down your DCA it's as simple as that dollar cost average buy a little bit every single week and just slowly create a weighted average it's much closer to the bottom than to the top we actually teach these things and more on our Academy now the link is going to be below to join on patreon you can join the regular patreon and join the Discord you can join the academy and I'll tell you what you can actually just join the freaking Discord the Discord is free to join for free members discord.
g/d Nash if you just want to hang out with us talk with us you don't want to be in the patreon The Academy that's fine come join it's free and if you want to analyze stocks like in video look at the 4ward PE look at your own DCF analyze model do everything at about 20 bucks per month we got stock MVP a platform we built for Reta investors me and my partner it's just as good as anything out there and better we have way more tools it is custom tailored for retail investors built by reta investors 7 days for free to try it out if you love it stay if you don't love it just cancel you won't pay a single dollar try it out for a few days and let me know what you think in the comments below or in Discord I'll see you in the next one
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