Tom Lee Just Issued an URGENT Warning for Stocks

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연준 50bp 인하는 시장에 긍정적이며 금리 3% 수준까지 인하가 이어질 전망. 단기(약 8주)는 대선 불확실성으로 변동성이 크지만 연말 랠리 예상. 산업재·금융·소형주(경기민감주)가 단기 유망, 빅테크는 보유 유지 권고. 인플레는 쉘터·자동차보험 등 후행지표 왜곡으로 사실상 둔화. 과거 인하기 경기침체 여부와 무관하게 장기 투자자에게 리스크 낮다고 주장. 장기적으로 S&P500 연 10% 기대, 적립식 투자 강조.

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01. folks Tom Lee says the unthinkable and you have to listen to this because this is insane now like every other video I have ever made on this channel the bottom line comes first because I know you guys have stuff to do I respect your time so the analysis always comes second after you get the bottom line I'm not holding anybody hostage in this video so don't click nothing don't smash nothing don't buy nothing let's get straight into this there are too many that were in the camp of a a hard Landing coming or the FED would be too late and this fed cut cycle I think is setting the stage for markets to be really strong so this is a very interesting argument and to be honest I haven't heard a lot of people talking about this he's saying look the fact that we got 50 basis points is not as important as the fact that the market wasn't really 100% expecting that we were kind of split down the middle 25 or 50 we're not sure and when the FED comes out and it's more on the bullish side on the D side then on the 25 bearish hawkish side that is a positive Catalyst for the market you can't just ignore that because the market will have to adjust to the new information which is a much more dovish Federal Reserve which we didn't have the eve of the announcement but he also issues an important warning he says look even though that's a good thing for the market long term for the next six seven months the upcoming couple of weeks are going to be insanely turbulent and probably unpleasant because if there's one thing that the markets hate absolutely with the Vengeance this is uncertainty the stock market loves certainty even if it's bad certainty if we know something for sure the markets are much happier than to exist in this void where they're not sure exactly what's going on and since we will not know who's going to be occupying the White House for the next four years until November that uncertainty is going to drive the market sideways like crazy absolutely bipolar behavior and that's not going to be a Les an experience to be a part of what the stocks do between now and let's say the election day I think is still a lot of uncertainty and that's the reason why I'm a little hesitant hesitant for investors to dive in but if I was going to advise where to be positions Carl it's it's exactly what you said it's cyclicals which is Industrials financials and small caps Tech and mag 7 still keeps up with the market and that's why someone owns it and they have tax implications I wouldn't sell it but for all these folks that have been sitting on uh a defensive positions or thinking the FED cut was going to be too late in the market was going to equity markets were going to fall I think those folks have to allocate into cyclical stocks especially small caps because they are not only sensitive to the cut in rates because of variable rate debt but they're going to benefit from the cyclical boost to the economy is it's mortgages the cost of mortgages drop auto loans credit cards LIF to the consumer potential m& all these are big tail ones for small caps but I think one thing investors have to distinguish Is that real growth like GDP growth doesn't mean inflation pressures because inflation is you know a a mismatch of supply and demand and I think there is a lot of excess uh Supply potentially coming for instance housing could have a supply response and if you look at the two biggest drivers for inflation for the past almost for the past eight quarters it's been shelter and rent rolls and auto insurance and auto insurance uh I think these insurers have reached sufficiency so you're not seeing the premium increases anymore so unless the rest of the CPI basket accelerates inflation is is actually falling pretty sharply but he also reassures investors and says look even though long-term we have bullish signals bullish Catalyst even though shortterm we have a lot of uncertainty and probably turbulence and volatility but towards the end of the year we're still going to see that rally because that uncertainty is going to be resolved in November and once that happens it's it's basically blue skies He also mentioned the fact that if you want to engage in trading in this market then you probably want to look at Industrials financials and small caps those are the ones that will perform well in this kind of new age fed where it's all doish and great and also everybody's looking for a save Haven from all this uncertainty for the next 8 weeks and that basically means that if you're looking for a place to park your car so to speak for the next eight weeks that's probably going to be best parked in the industrial section in the financial potentials and in small caps because for different reasons these are the sectors which will be outperforming the rest of the market for the next 8 weeks the small caps because of lower interest the other ones because they're more like a safe haven when the market is uncertain but he also says if you own the tech the Mac 7 the big stocks I wouldn't sell right now now he also says look inflation is pretty much over the remnants of inflation we're seeing right now it's like one of them Holograms which you find 100 years later after the aliens have already left because the one thing that's holding up inflation at 2 and a half% rather than being at 2% is the two most lacking indicators in existence which is shelter and auto insurance things that don't get updated on a month-to-month basis but rather on a year or multi-year basis people don't move every year and people don't renew their insurance every week and of course when you actually consider the fact that you have supply chain absolutely opening up and we don't have the demand problems versus Supply problems we had in the pandemic the fact is that the laggers are dragging the inflation basically in the wrong place skewing the data and oil being at 70 bucks per barrel it's just not an inflationary environment and he doesn't see any risk that this extended doish policy by the FED is going to come back and bite us into ass because inflation will resurge like it did in the Paul varer days well rather before Paul varker was called up to save the humanity the one thing that I think I think we have to keep in the back of our minds is that CEOs have been cautious for the last two and a half years because the FED telegraphed a tightening cycle to fight inflation so I think that the the fact that rates and now we're in an easing cycle means that companies are going to actually start doing expansion so I I think the labor market and and the FED is mentally knocking down these monthly numbers I think Tailwinds are emerging for labor labor markets to actually strengthen and he also shares a very important argument about unemployment numbers yes they are high but Tony is saying here something very interesting that I want us to think about he's saying look folks the fact that we have higher than we thought unemployment numbers is because most employers were being cautious because we didn't know when the FED is going to make money cheap again and now that we know that money cheap is coming and the next year is going to be a cutting cycle and we have more money coming in at a cheaper price employers will be active again proactive again and they'll be hiring more people so this unemployment number again is a little bit skewed by managers and CEOs basically playing it safe until the FED says hey it's party on time which is exactly what happened so he expects a lot of this unemployment thing to unwind naturally as the market goes from cautious to playing offense which is not a bad argument to make to be honest the fact of the matter is very simple 50 basis points in this market is a very positive development taking away half a perc of Interest interest right now and actually indicated to the market that we are about to go even lower from 5.2 5.5 to 3% interest which is where the FED is headed is a massive massive upgrade for the market allow me to explain let's say that you want to borrow $500 right one two one two and one so total $500 right you want to borrow this money so so far you've been paying $50 to borrow that money but the FED just told you hey in about a year this $50 is going to turn into the is $5 so to borrow this money you're going have to pay this not the 50 you paid earlier what do you think is going to happen well you're going to borrow more money you're going to build more you're going to spend more CAPIC you're going to recruit more employees consumers are going to spend more and therefore the retail is going to do better it's going to be a snobble effect restarting the economy back into this party mode because let's be honest the last year was not pleasant as a consumer in America things have gotten pretty tough but they didn't break yet and that's the point I'm making here Tomley says look folks this shows us that this cutting cycle is going to be quite brief usually when the FED starts a cutting cycle they'll start with a 0 25 and they slowly Pace themselves over the course of 18 months but when we're going from 5.25 to 3% and The First Cut is already half a percentage point that journey is going to be much quicker because the FED has absolutely adopted the approach that inflation is dead inflation is no longer a threat so now they can go a lot faster now short term there's going to be be a lot of nasty behavior in this market and I agree with him but long term when you have a strong Market a strong economy which gets cheaper money influxed into it this cannot develop into a bad situation now a lot of people saying well Tom in history we had a lot of time where the FED cut rates and then the economy crashed and the stock market crashed sure but let me give you an example let's say that a person is dying and that dying person is being administered antibiotics right the antibiotics are not going to help a dying person right but let's say that the person got there early and the antibiotics saved him well now what your conclusion is does antibiotics killed people because half the patient died after they got antibiotics no they died because they were too late the same thing with the economy if rate cuts are administered on time onto a good economy and not to an economy that's already in the recession the economy reacts well and the patient survives to fight another day and even though we don't have data going all the way back to T the thing is the Fed wasn't always so transparent about what their interest policy is but since we actually started getting that transparency we had five cutting Cycles into recession and seven cutting Cycles into a non- recession economy and guess what I'm about to show the numbers check this out so in a non- recession economy these seven Cycles on average gave the market an 8.4% upside in 3 months and above 15% in a year now in the bad economy cutting cycle in 3 months we had 75% and annual minus 2% wait wait wait wait wait my head is about to explode why wasn't it worse well because even though the economy is in the recession when you make money cheaper eventually that fixes the economy unlike our example about the dying person so even as a long-term investor you look at this and you say well look you just told me that if things are good we're going to Rally 15% on average historically statistically and if things are bad we're basically going to be broken even in about a year so what's the risk here as a long-term investor none that's what I'm saying there's no risk and that's why I don't care about experts predicting a crash and the recession who cares we've seen how this plays out many times in the past long-term investors do not care about these thing especially when the data that we are presented with unless the data of course is fake but the current data that we're seeing shows us nothing recessionary GDP numbers are okay unemployment is okay inflation is nearing 2% consumer sentiment is okay consumer spending is okay nothing horrendous and you add on top of it the cutting cycle by the FED what you going to get a recession magically the recession f is going to come in and go here's a recession for it's not do don't work like this that's not the point you can't just manufacture recession because the FED cut rates in a decent economy it's hard to see how this situation ends in the recession but of course anything is possible I'm not saying it's not going to happen I'm just saying that based on the information that we have right now it seems quite unlikely and I'm not the only person saying this Steve Iceman you know the guy from The Big Short was just on TV and this is what he said people spent a lot of money a lot of money and a lot of time trying to figure out what what the god excuse me Po's going to do and um that was intentional by the way and um I don't think it's look if if the fed's raising rates very very aggressively that's important and The fed's Cutting rates extremely aggressively that's important everything in the middle it's just not that important you better to focus on the economy well not everything is good there has definitely been a slowing in the econ a soft Landing was it a soft Landing well the there's been a slowing in the economy um the lower-end consumer is somewhat stressed they're spending less but you know has there's been an increase in delinquencies but not terrible so on the margin things are a little bit slower but inflation is cooler so as far as I'm concerned things are are fine you know now there are people out there who are going to who are still saying there's a recession going to happen you know right around the corner and maybe they're right but as far as you know the current data is concerned I don't see that so basically what he said right now it's all about the economy nothing else matters I couldn't agree more and he's also saying well look the economy is okay following this daily Trends what the FED said what the FED do why waste your time with all this nonsense I couldn't agree more with this guy I like him a lot and here's the punch he's saying look folks yes not everything is perfect yes consumers are stressed out yes more delinquencies that is all true but the economy went from being great to being less great being okay being slightly above average that doesn't mean that it's heading to a recession the fact that America has become so expensive is felt by Everyday People every single freaking day that still doesn't mean that this is a recession and as long as the economy stays put as long as it maintains its structural Integrity then it's not going to break and then the rate cuts are going to lead to a good numbers on the economy side which will lead to good earnings by the corporations which will lead to good earnings by stocks and all this cycle is going to be priced prematurely ahead of time by the stock market because it is a mechanism that prices in future developments today it's very very simple couldn't agree more now look most of you who watch my channel are in my age group pretty much right 30 to 50 years old you got aob job you have kids you have a mortgage you have a lot of hassles to deal with you have a very limited amount of [ __ ] to give in a day why waste it on worrying about what will happen in the market in the short term how will this week be how will next week be are we headed to a pullback why if you know that the S&P 500 gives you 10% per year and if you pick good companies and you invest in them long term for the next 15 years you will be fine as long as your dollar cost average and double down on weakness as long as your process of picking good companies and diversifying with the index doesn't really change nothing we had recessions we had crashes the world almost burned 7,000 times and yet over the past 15 years the S&P 500 gave you 700% stop this nonsense now if you actually want to take this to the next level and get better at this clean up your head space and get better at long-term investing I invite you to check out our Academy patreon.com Nash would love to have you on there would love to have you participate in our lectures we do lectures about how to DCA how to do valuations how to pick good companies when to sell a stock all these good things join us hopefully I see you in the next meeting thank you so much peace