저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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ARK의 Cathie Wood가 핀테크 투자 플랫폼 Tiffin(Benay Nair)과의 인터뷰에서 핀테크 성장성과 파괴적 혁신 기업 선호를 강조. 중국 규제 강화로 대형 플랫폼 밸류에이션이 하락했다고 평가하며 중국 본토 기업 일부 축소 의사 표명. 중국의 비트코인 채굴 금지 이후 채굴이 미국 등으로 이전되며 ESG 측면에서 긍정적이라고 주장. 머스크 관련 질문에는 직접 답을 피함. 인플레이션 일시성보다 디플레이션(혁신·창조적 파괴) 압력을 강조하며 성장주 강세를 전망. 발언 대부분은 2021년 7월 시점의 장기 견해이며 단기 가격 예측은 명시되지 않음.
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well um when when i first met vinay it was at an etf conference where i was or an arc was kind of a curiosity it was in 2018 and nobody believed we would make it uh everybody was curious how could an active manager uh work within an etf rapper that's for passive it's fully transparent but the nae believed that we were going to be successful and believed in our transparency our active our information flow and he's run with that with the tiffin companies uh very focused on transparency and bringing in intelligent access to especially uh registered investment advisors and institutional investors so um we were intrigued with his business or we have been intrigued uh we've piloted some of his uh services and have been very satisfied with the result so benay it brings us to you and what you're trying to build obviously there's a lot of money going into fintech not just from venture capital but some of the biggest banks jpmorgan visa doing billion dollar deals in the last few weeks so i think of magnifier subsidiary as a sort of google for investments but you're expanding into actually selling the investment products talk about what you're trying to build what your vision is yeah thank you sir for having me here kathy thanks for joining as well and you're absolutely right look fintech investment has gone from vc investment in fintech has gone from 4 billion in 2016 to 8 in 2018 to 35 billion last quarter just in fintech a lot of this activity has been largely focused on payments lending new banking and what's happening in the space of wealth and investments is still new and still mason so tiffin we think is part of the solution we are a platform that really builds fintech products for the world of investment and wealth management and uh what we are really doing magnify which is one of our subsidiaries when we presented it here uh in august had a few hundred thousand users which the number of searches on our platform has exceeded 10 million last year which is clearly telling us that the marketplace needs a simpler easier more natural way to discover compare investments and the next national step for us was to enable action in how can you discover compare and then maybe invest which is what we're doing now with our so quick note this is basically a company where they build fintech companies so they do the infrastructure for fintechs you used to push people after they search stuff to to other asset managers and brokers now you're going to do it yourself how do you take your commissions great question first so i think that you know this goes back to my academic background it's pretty clear there's lots of research and evidence that uh excessive trading hurts performance and we also know that guess which segment of the market trades excessively it's really the discount brokerage audience and the discount brokerages all of them have an incentive to promote trading whether it's through commissions or whether it's through it's through selling order flow so we thought hard about how can we build a platform that is really investor focused and encourages investment um so we don't make revenues from selling order flow or from commissions what we do is charge asset managers investment managers who who access the investors using our platform and we do that in a very transparent simple way where if you go in and search for for example e-commerce without amazon you will find the first result sponsored in a very transparent manner we also have subscription services um kathy wanted to talk a little more broadly about fintech we we know you're a big fan of it across all of your portfolios and uh it's been a great a great play for you so far is different some of those stocks though on on simple multiples can look quite expensive and we wondered whether we'd found a cheaper alternative for you earlier on the show we have bank of america chairman and ceo brian moynihan and uh here's a soundbite from that interview we are a technology company we're basically huge capable technology platforms okay i heard him say that they literally asked him are you a fintech and he says we are a technology company i'm like bro bank of america why don't you just be straight with people and go we're not like my answer would have been something more like no we're not a fintech a fintech is a smaller company that doesn't have the experience of an institution like us you know if i were bank of america right like if i were pitching them i would go from that angle like we actually have way more products and way more services we're not a little baby financial company we're we're a big financial company with better options for our clients right like that's the pitch i would have given but this this pitch would in my opinion was just like dodging the question it was sorry kathy i'm i'm i'm being a little bit cheeky here but seriously would you consider buying bank of america as a fintech company for your portfolios well we do we we would not it's not what we do uh we are very focused on innovation and uh and and very rapid growth companies so our revenue growth is uh north of 25 so we're not going to see that from the traditional banks but what we will see is much like what has happened in traditional retail we have walmart and costco and target they are doing very well while a lot of the market is hurting badly so we do think that uh industries that are going to that that are um they're under attack from fintech from many many directions no question about it uh but the biggest and those who invest in technology in the the smartest way possible are going to basically consolidate the industry we do we do believe that uh what has happened to retail is going to happen to financial services at an accelerated rate makes sense kathy wanted to take the opportunity with you just to ask about some of some of your other investments obviously a lot of buzz and people pay attention when you come on you made a lot of news warning about china and have been unloading some of the the chinese names amid the crackdown we've seen from the from the chinese government what do you think is going on there and what happens to your holdings that are still quite substantial and names like alibaba are you just going to continue to unload well what you've seen is uh mostly in the flagship strategy which which incorporates all of our innovation platforms all of our ideas scarce real estate uh 50 names and when we see a an assault and i would say it's more on the valuation of many of these names uh uh we we will pull out and and consolidate towards higher conviction names in our other portfolios uh what you'll see in our autonomous technology and robotics strategy ark for example we haven't done that much except at the margins with those companies that we believe need to expand outside the rest of the world in order to sustain their growth rates we do believe that china is clamping down i don't know if it's capital controls i do know there's a little bit of a retaliation uh against the biden administration's policies which are a continuation of the trump administration's policies i think that's been the biggest surprise for china and i think for most investors we thought that the u.s uh china savor rattling would diminish somewhat that has not what you will not see us do with the chinese stocks is pull out of those names that are more endemic to china itself china does want to be a leader in innovation and uh and is very supportive uh for for uh its companies scaling as quickly as they can internally what i feel is going to hurt at the margin though is any company and in fact in their last policy announcement they said any company with more than one million users and as you know in china i think wechat has over 800 million users they're going to be under tougher regulatory scrutiny so i do think that's a valuation downgrade i think that has happened and uh let's see what happens from here uh i as i said i don't think china wants to cut it cut itself out of the innovation game i think it'll encourage it internally and we'll wait we'll wait for things to settle down and then again reopen and allow its companies to scale more into the rest of the world what what about kathy uh china's uh clampdown on on bitcoin did that also warrant a evaluation downgrade in bitcoin uh well it was the combination of that and uh the esg concerns that uh elon elon musk headlined uh at one point in time uh so yes there's been angry but let me explain give you a comparison in 2017 china shut down all of its exchanges bitcoin exchanges and uh the market went through a a big uh fallout because many people thought oh my gosh most of the trading is taking place in china this is the end well guess what it migrated elsewhere in the world japan korea and thailand were the biggest beneficiaries back then and as you will remember after that bitcoin uh started to scale from one thousand dollars it was actually less than one thousand to twenty thousand dollars in that one year so i think the same is true with miners somewhere between 50 and 7 65 of all mining bitcoin mining was in china i actually think it's a healthier phenomenon uh to uh disperse that mining and a lot of it is coming to the united states and moving towards renewables and as you know we have just done a paper with square we're going to have a conference on july 21st uh we're one of the hosts with square where we're going to explain how bitcoin mining will probably become part of utility ecosystems and will proliferate renewables faster than would otherwise be the case so we're pretty excited by that and we think that uh elon musk and tesla generally uh will become a part of that ecosystem so uh we think this is temporary we think institutions pulled back and said wait a minute what do we have here esg's top of mind and i think we're answering those questions uh and at this conference you'll see uh there could be nothing better than bitcoin in terms of esg governance with the transparency social this is a little bit of a use a different use case but uh enabling economic empowerment throughout the world uh and uh environmental if we're right that uh this community bitcoin community is very environmentally conscious as are the institutions i think that we're going to see all of the e s g answered at that conference well that it's a non-consensus view on on certainly on bitcoin right now kathy uh but maybe you're reassuring the bitcoin fans they don't have to hate elon musk speaking of mr musk you know i was going to ask you about that and tesla and your position he said this week at a trial kathy that that tesla would die without him and i'm curious whether you agree and what it says about a company that you value at almost two trillion dollars that the ceo says without him would be worthless yes um well uh i think that uh getting through the 0.809 near bankruptcy uh was elon musk brute force determination and creativity ingenuity and i believe also that it's uh move up to this point he has been very critical uh especially around the move towards autonomous i know most people don't believe that that's going to be successful but we believe is going to be very successful and he has been driven and focused and has not let short-term oriented shareholders uh um divert him from that mission so i do think just like amazon if jeff bezos had not been there i think about all the years i remember i suffered with it uh but what about going forward all the years uh jeff bezos during the tekken tele uh crash and for i think through 2006 seven after he was saying we are not going to be a profitable company we are going to uh reinvest all the upside from revenues into the business and we are going to take the lion's share of this business uh not only that one and aws so these leaders who are willing to um to buck up against their largest shareholders and and say no we must invest now if we want to capitalize on this exponential growth opportunity i think i put elon uh jeff bezos steve jobs in that category you know apple certainly would have disappeared were it not for uh steve jobs so uh these are very special visionary leaders there are not very many of them they don't come around uh there aren't the this big a set of opportunities either uh we think there are more now than there have been historically because of all of the innovation evolving uh but i i understand what he says uh by saying he doesn't like to be a ceo but he had to be uh and i agree with him i do agree with him she didn't answer i wanted to come back to tiffin and uh she didn't answer going forward and now they're off the topic i'm kind of bummed about that like what if he left today i wondered whether you were outright critical of some of those apps like for example robin hood but many others too uh that uh are incentivized by driving volumes and what makes you confident you'll attract those retail traders that certainly at the moment are very much engaged by trading stocks whether or not your platform might offer better long-term returns for them or not yeah wilfred great question look i think robinhood has built a great business uh for themselves for sure and we respect them for bringing many more participants into the markets it's just a natural evolution that once you democratize access i think access without intelligence is detrimental and our purpose is quite different from from robinhood's what we want to do is to promote investment longer-term trading and better outcomes you know we we believe in gamifying knowledge for better outcomes rather than gamifying trading if you will but one meets you know one step had to precede the other is my view on this today there are enough participants even beyond robinhood there are many discount brokerages so the segmentation of the audience across brokerages provides enough opportunities we believe to attract folks who probably want to invest more responsibly more intelligently where'd they go and finally kathy i always ask you every time you're on what you think is the best opportunity right now a lot of these hyper growth names have been hit and have not rebounded with the nasdaq and some of the mega cap tech name so so where do you see the best opportunity among all the names you like or even maybe some new ones well you know we've had a good rebound sorry we've had a good rebound since uh midway mid-may i think uh and so growth has come back into fashion i think we're in a bit of a dueling match maybe risk off right now for the market you were talking about inflation earlier if i could just lob in a few examples of major deflationary forces we're seeing lumber prices today uh are less it's they've dropped by almost two-thirds since the middle of may i do believe the fed today is talking about housing risks and so forth so that perhaps that's one reason but that's been a severe drop as ha copper has come down 10 15 we are are seeing uh even in the auto space the mannheim used car index for the first time in 13 months ticked down we believed used car prices are uh going to to fall uh they've they've gone way too far away way too fast and um we we talk all the time about the deflationary forces associated inflation i believe leah earlier mentioned it uh but it's not just on the disruptive innovation side our companies causing uh these uh falling prices that explode demand that's good deflation there's another thing going on it's called creative destruction and companies who have not been keeping up with innovation are going and have been leveraging up to buy back shares and satisfy short-term oriented shareholders they are going to have to service their debt by cutting prices so i think not only do we have good deflation and bad deflation at work here but now we're seeing the beginning of cyclical deflation and i think we're in a risk-off period i know uh we got hit today a lot of growth strategies got hit there was a shift towards defensives and i think there's a lot of confusion but if growth is going to be scarce because inflation's going to come down uh our kind of strategies which generate revenue growth rates in the 25 percent plus range are going to shine longer term happy wood exciting i didn't mean yeah cut you out so you know our top names uh as usual tesla's at the the head of the pack uh roku is a very important name to us square zoom shopify uh teledoc uh these many of them are described that stay-at-home stocks and why you know we're going back to work why why are you paying attention to them uh these what we believe is the world or coronavirus crisis changed the world dramatically and permanently and one when consumers and businesses find faster cheaper better more more productive more creative they're not going back to the old world so many of these stocks have been cut in half and then some because there have been algorithms saying their stay at home stocks sell them uh we think that's a mistake cathy wood thank you very much fenay nair thank you as well for joining us from tiffin and congrats again on the uh the new addition to your board thank you both bank of america didn't make the list no that's a good one to end it on uh okay uh i want to just uh add some commentary on this because uh uh yeah there's some things that were really interesting on this uh oh boy that was a priceless uh way to end that uh so some things that that are very important to highlight uh some notes that i took from what kathy wood just said number one i i love that she makes it so clear that they target growth companies look bank of america is a company that is not expected to grow anywhere near like fintechs that makes sense right because fintechs are starting small and they have explosive growth ahead of them in fact wall street estimates for growth at a company like a bank of america right now are 2.8 percent for 2021 4 for 2022 5.6 for 2023 and so it becomes a little bit more apparent that when you compare growth and you're like wait a minute that's well that's kind of low you know well now it makes sense why do you think you're paying a lower multiple for the companies uh sometimes i see these threads on reddit and people are like oh if the p e ratio is high it means it's overvalued no it doesn't it means there's a lot of growth being priced in sofi is expected to grow over 51 in the next year just to give you an example let's think of another one i don't know what's what's another one uh we could uh um ally maybe you could maybe consider ally ally would be somewhat in the middle i think i'd love to be able to look up like a robin hood uh yeah no i see ally not much growth here actually uh pretty low growth and ally so bad example uh and then i don't use ally but i'd love to look at like a robin hood growth but i'm sure you can estimate that yourself too now your expectations are that robin hood's not going to grow like a bank of america at two or three percent uh or it's going to more likely grow in line with what kathy's expectations are for growth companies growing more than 25 per year i guess suppose an easy example would be because we talked so much about it as an easy example would be comparing to let's say tesla right tesla's growth is expected to be 50 compounded growth in deliveries over the next few years so uh that that's huge by the way so anyway uh additionally kathy wood reiterated that during tough times they they'd like to uh consolidate their position so what they'll do is they'll have fewer positions they'll sell out of some positions that they have less conviction in and they'll add more to higher conviction names she talked a little bit about china how she thinks there are a lot of risks with china right now china is uh is possibly uh creating some issues because take a look at this you've got this as a as a headline here on bloomberg us to extend trump era halt on economic dialogue with china treasury secretary yellen and her staff have no plans to resurrect the regular u.s china economic dialogue that governed ties between the two nations during the obama and bush administrations and so here's just another example of a kathy woods sort of well i mean this was a headline piece on on bloomberg here but but kathy wood applying headline news to her investing strategies she's saying look this is a problem when biden got in we thought relations with china would get better but biden's actually continuing them in in essentially the worst direction unfortunately then we have information about her talking about uh china she spent a little bit actually a good amount of time talking about uh chinese china and bitcoin how uh china essentially getting out of bitcoin mining which previously potentially supplied 60 60 to 70 percent of all of bitcoin mining which estimates vary on this so this is kathy's estimate 60-70 percent of bitcoin mining was in china she says she says from an esg point of view environmental social governments right this is a really really good thing uh sustainability transparency uh social empowerment very very good uh so she likes this i've read her paper with square on bitcoin or paper uh with bitcoin or about bitcoin with square talks a lot about how we can actually use bitcoin to help expand our green energy grid this is something that governor newsom for example in california would be very smart to pay attention to like why don't you pay attention to the fact that we could work and incorporate blockchain incorporate bitcoin and utilize this with green energy expansion so we could use energy that's otherwise being wasted wonderful opportunities uh this is why i'm running for governor california and you should go to my rally this weekend in bakersfield go to meetkevin.com to sign up and of course get 40 off on my amazing coupons for building your wealth link down below that coupon code does expire on the 22nd yet lifetime access to the programs and prices will be going up on the 23rd now tesla on tesla elon musk in testimony i actually pulled up the exact quote so i could get the uh the appropriate context because personally i believe context is very important in a statement during his trial about his acquisition of solar city he claimed that while the ceo position is one that he doesn't necessarily want he must maintain the position or quote frankly tesla is going to die yeah that's not good that is a very current statement elon musk is saying presently either tesla is at risk of dying without him when kathy wood was just asked about that on cnbc she didn't answer she did not answer that she literally talked about elon musk and how important he was during the bankruptcy phase or or near bankruptcy phase in 2008 2009 how important jeff bezos was to amazon when it was you know and how they didn't want to be profitable how they wanted to reinvest everything how important steve jobs was to apple during the tough times in the 80s and 90s she told us nothing about her opinion about what if elon musk leaves tomorrow i didn't really like that non-answer i don't know if she just forgot to get to that part now i'm just going to inject that yes i know that kathy wood said she agrees with elon but keep in mind she's deflecting the question the question is what would happen if elon musk left now and she says i agree if elon weren't there in the past it'd be bad so what do you think going forward but sara eisen had a pretty blunt question and we got a miss on that one personally if elon musk today is saying tesla's going to die without them that's scary right that's scary to hear now i do personally believe that this could be just an exaggeration of elon musk i i do believe that tesla is in a wonderful position to to grow and and sustain without him but i could be wrong and i'm not trying to undervalue what he contributes but it just makes me wonder like could tesla continue at this point like apple continued without steve jobs or does tesla need another 10 years of elon to get to that point of stability right when steve jobs unfortunately passed away and stepped down from apple before that uh sorry from from apple apple was very very well positioned i mean they they were what was this 2013 or 14 you know iphone 1 was out iphone 3g was out the ipad was out uh i think facetime was already out at that point let me see steve jobs his face time was 2013 or 14 as well oh wow wait a minute never mind he died in 2011.
oh i misaligned that a little bit my bad uh maybe i'm just not remembering when facetime came out facetime release facetime release date oh see okay okay i just had my dates wrong facetime came out in 2010 the ipad came out in 2010 the original iphone came out in 2007. so a lot of these these really important like innovative products came out right before uh his death and uh these were incredibly successful products so uh i'm surprised i was a few years off on that one but i was correct in my order just wrong in my years uh anyway uh then uh then let's see here we also have this uh let's talk about the market this dueling match in the market that kathy was talking about uh this really has to do with the dually match of inflation i actually tweeted about this a little bit i didn't really love her investment or joining the board of this this tripping company or whatever uh maybe maybe this is uh something that um uh i mean it's not a company that i believe that we can invest in let's say triphen let's see if they're public i don't believe it is i think it's way too new i think it's a larger sort of company that uh or sort of a a company that develops the backbone or infrastructure for companies like maybe a robin hood or a sofi or other sorts of fintechs or maybe smaller banks wanting to become fintech-esque but not something that's available apparently to be invested in right now so uh yeah wasn't so excited about that we did hear talk about the dueling match of inflation deflation i do want to give you these poll results i would like i do want to get more of your votes here so please go on twitter and vote but take a look at this will inflation be transitory or not aka are you in camp sarah eisen or michael bury and we've got uh the vast majority of you voting here transitory less than three percent in 2022 almost half of you believing that another almost uh well just over 17 percent of you so this would be about 60 percent of you going for the transitory argument and then another about 40 percent of you going for the not transitory argument but go ahead and cast your vote because this is very early in the poll so it could still shift substantially but uh kester pull uh vote to see how you feel at realme kevin on twitter okay uh kathy wood then went back to her argument about deflation uh and uh how there are going to be a lot of deflationary forces creative destruction innovation that means older companies are going to have to drop prices to try to be competitive as they potentially go bankrupt and disappear as more innovative and better technologies advance and take over this is an argument she's talked about many times before it's not really worth fully rehashing it right now uh she did also reference that lumbra fell a good chunk here in the last few weeks i don't know if lumber is exactly the best reference okay look i want to be fair i'm a big fan of kathy wood but i'm not exactly sure that lumber is the best reference to say deflation is here because lumber just ran up like crazy so it's no surprise that it the speculative bubble of lumber is is now behind us and it's falling down so i don't i i'm certainly and look i'm somebody who believes inflation's going to be transitory that we're going to have a bigger risk of deflation but i'm not going to use lumber as my uh as my backup so as you can see him i have my differences of opinion to kathy wood uh but uh in general i think we're on the same boat so i hopefully appreciate this insight if you do make sure to subscribe and uh somebody says uh that kathy wood did say that she agrees with him about yeah but okay maybe maybe so i just got a notification that some of you say kathy said she agrees with a lot so maybe she has she said she agrees with elon but the thing is her entire conversation was focused on the past she didn't give us any insights into what about going forward right like what what if elon leaves going forward and i think that was a little bit frustrating uh which which is also what i highlighted in in the past few minutes when i talked about it anyway thank you so much for watching this folks thanks for being here if you have found it helpful subscribe use that 40 off coupon code link down below price does go up in about a week it's actually eight days yeah we'll see in the next one bye everyone and we'll see in bakersfield as well bakersfield go to meet kevin.com
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