What Jerome Powell JUST Said in Congress

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연준 파월 의장의 의회 증언 내용을 해설. CPI headline 상승은 일시적 재개장 효과(중고차·항공·숙박)로 해석. MBS와 국채 테이퍼링 동시 진행 선호, 노동공급 부족은 기술 미스매치 요인으로 봄, 연준 CBDC 보고서 9월 발표 예정. 테이퍼링은 2022년 1분기 기대가 많으나 본인은 9~10월 CPI 확인 후로 예상.

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01. we know that jerome powell made it very clear and this is something that he believed regularly that when we look at the inflation numbers the cpi inflation numbers they continue to come up in what he calls well areas well restricted to categories associated with the short term reopenings and if we think about the last cpi report when we look at the headline numbers we know and and this is the thing that we always have to consider okay we know that all of a sudden what happens with inflation is when we get big headline numbers you get media folks who all of a sudden go nuts over the headline now i don't blame them because they put the details in their articles as well so it's not their fault just society loves to eat up these headline numbers the problem with these headline numbers is they are misleading when we look at the actual details within the cpi report we see it's used cars up again we see its air travel up again but guess what was not up last time that was last time only up 0.4 percent but is up over 10 this time hotels and lodging right so these are all it makes sense these are part of the reopening in fact we've been we've been doing so many rallies over the last uh two weeks we've did nine rallies over the last last two weeks for the campaign we've got our tenth rally coming up in bakersfield which you're welcome to come to totally for free go to meetcam.com but we're basically saying in our campaign we're the reason hotel and lodging prices skyrocketed so we're sorry everyone but we've been booking so many hotels it's probably our fault so sorry about that but anyway that's also temporary so uh jerome powell was was then also asked specifically about uh the housing market and how mortgage-backed securities might affect uh the housing market and their continued purchases of these uh these mortgage-backed securities uh and he mentioned that uh he is in in the camp that would rather taper both treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities at the same time that's because you actually have two camps within the federal reserve when you read the federal reserve minutes you can see this division between some folks at the federal reserve who want to only taper mortgage-backed securities because they believe that the real estate mortgage market has plenty of liquidity but others say look we've got plenty of liquidity at the treasury market as well so let's just taper both together so this is something that this is the first time we've actually heard him align with which side he is on addition to that regarding uh worker shortages he mentions that it's one thing that i thought was very interesting is he mentioned that he didn't think the extra unemployment boost the 300 per week is going to be first of all it's not going to be much of a factor for much longer but he also mentioned that he's not seeing a very big difference between states who have prematurely cut the 300 per week and states that have not cut the 300 per week he's not seeing that difference in actually seeing more workers come back instead he believes a bigger factor in what's happening in the labor market is this mismatch between people who basically had a job who had a career and and all of a sudden need to relocate into a new career or into a new business or into a new field of work that right now doesn't fit their current skill set and so this is a belief that jerome powell has now the problem is and and he was pretty clear about this it's very difficult to be certain exactly what's going on and he's very transparent about that which i appreciate there are a lot of times during his uh testimony that he said you know i don't have the answer to that and what i've one of the things that i found for example when i'm on campaign rallies is people appreciate you answering their question like answer the freaking question so when i answer the question which i do very bluntly especially in the last 10 10 and last couple weeks of rallies where this is exactly what folks want i'll clearly say i don't know the answer to that but i'll find out and we'll get back to you i'll even say this is my suspicion but my suspicion could be wrong but i make my stance very very clear and this is what jerome powell is doing he's giving us an answer i don't know this is what i think but as soon as we know more will give it to you and in fairness i'd rather that then feel like jerome powell is just lying to us and uh and then he's gonna backstab us right like you know that the saying it's better to be strong and wrong than weak and right i personally disagree with that and i actually think jerome powell disagrees with that as well all right so let's keep going here we have powell was also asked about digital currencies in a future digital uh dollar uh is a note that i have here oh yeah okay so yeah basically this particular portion here uh the federal reserve announced and this was a new one that they're going to release a report in september about how they might be able to actually include the benefits and risks of a digital dollar so a central bank a central bank digital currency to be clear they've been working on this for years it's it's old news at this point jp morgan uses an ethereum based jpm coin uh other banks are experimenting with these they're great they're used for institutional investors regularly doing across border transfers they're phenomenal for these purposes what kind of additional benefits they would actually contribute to the us economy if we had a fed coin we don't really know yet and the federal reserve says look we don't need to be first we just need to be right in how we do uh central bank digital currency so uh yeah those were those were the big takeaways from the federal reserve john powell we did also have mention let's see here no i covered that already yeah okay oh this was interesting so uh let's see here okay this is interesting he also i also have this note here that jerome powell is also someone who prefers to taper a little bit later than expected now so a lot of folks think the taper could come as soon as really like august or maybe even uh late august somewhere around here that within the next meeting or two we could see a table most people believe that the taper would begin in quarter one of 2022 which is january through march however the market on average is kind of suggesting ah but it could be as it could be a month earlier it could be a month later or you know sort of december to like april that's kind of the range that uh most like if there were a bell curve the peak of the bell curve of where expectations are for a taper would be somewhere between december and april and the interesting thing about this is we know that jerome powell is in favor of actually tapering later i personally do not expect the federal reserve to taper until we get september and october inflation data cpi data now keep in mind september and october cpi data won't actually come out until october and november right so it's it's always hurry up and wait with uh with the markets but anyway this is this gives you an overview and a summary my belief on exactly what jerome powell just said so you have details on this you